Expansion Rumors Megathread
- Thread starter MagnusPax
- Start date
I'd argue that Miami is the worst major sports market in terms of actual asses in seats at games.
Not TV, not "official attendance". Actual asses in seats.
*I've lived in Miami for 26 years so I have special training in the matter.
But when team is good it's good $$$ for the league. Which is why MLS need presence in South Beach. Yea it's a bandwagon town but they show up when team wins.
Some towns don't even do that.
As Dan LeBatard says, "Miamis the worst sports town in America, but we also have the best bandwagon in America".
It's simple down there. Win and people show up.
Life time Floridian here.
It's simple down there. Win and people show up.
Life time Floridian here.
Normally wouldn't care if Becks sold, but as far as I'm concerned, any Qatari group is persona non grata with all things soccer. Their country's fraudulent WC bid damns them for eternity in the sport, and I hope once they get their Miami ship sailing, it's perennially a disaster in the stands and also on the field. I'd be delighted to see them set all new low-level attendance records and supersede Chicago as the dumpster-fire club.
UAE ain't far behind Qatar if we're honest...
Human Rights and Politics is a completely different topic that probably should stay out of this discussion. My point is that Qatar, within the soccer realm, has already violated the essence & sanctity of the sport. That alone, if we're actually talking soccer and MLS, places them in a completely different category.
So, Zlatan to Miami official then? I'm hearing it's the same Qatari investment group that owns PSG.
Some more expansion stuff
Cincinnati
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...ambitions-turns-orlando-city-sc-model-success
St Louis
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...rts-leaders-unite-attract-major-league-soccer
and rumour has it Minnesota will be changing their name. Hopefully the keep the badge.
Cincinnati
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...ambitions-turns-orlando-city-sc-model-success
St Louis
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...rts-leaders-unite-attract-major-league-soccer
and rumour has it Minnesota will be changing their name. Hopefully the keep the badge.
It makes no sense that Minnesota United, an established team with a history has to change their name. But, Atlanta gets to use United without any reason besides United.
i heard some BS reason that MLS didnt want another "United" team in the league...but that makes no sense since DC united existed before....and yet there numerous FC's all over. i dont think one more United is going to ruin anything.
Garber recently stated that round to expand to 28 will be the last round of expansion: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/garber...nstitutes-sweeping-change-224834805--mls.html
While we all know that's probably bullshit, in order to keep the illusion of scarcity and drive up the price of the expansion slots, it definitely piqued my interest again in thinking about how a "finished" MLS would impact and interact with the lower leagues.
So I made a thing:
Let me explain what's going here.
Once MLS closes it's doors for good (in this projection at 28 teams), there will be effectively two professional soccer ladders in America - the closed MLS represented in circles above, and the NASL represented in squares above.
The MLS will remain the top league in the country with the greatest level of investment, best markets, and largest fanbases. It will also remain relatively linear in talent distribution, due to the parity rules that MLS is fond of. Lastly, the MLS "ladder" would end with MLS teams and, obviously, no pro/reg to lower levels.
The NASL will remain the clear second division in the country, but there are some very solid markets available in the country that are locked out of MLS, not to mention second teams in Chicago, New York, and Miami. There's also plenty of foreign and domestic investor money, and an international player pool to supply the teams.
The NASL's decentralized nature will lead to two things: (1) top NASL teams will be able to invest enough to build very solid squads, and (2) the distribution of talent will be exponential rather than linear. As a result, some NASL teams may be better than the worse MLS team (four teams are in the above graphic), but are still unlikely to compete with the top MLS squads.
In addition, it's a poorly kept secret that the NASL eventually would like a pro/reg setup, and the NPSL has already been floated as that lower level. So the NASL ladder would be open and go down at least one level to NASL2/NPSL on the same exponential talent distribution curve. In the graphic above, I did both levels with 18 teams each (which would give a 34 game double round robin schedule).
Lastly, I shaded in areas that divide up the 64 professional teams into three equal tiers of teams, just to compare talent levels across leagues. You can see that at the top, about two teams in the NASL are able to call themselves "tier one" talent level. The bottom nine teams in MLS (i.e. most of the non-postseason qualifiers) would all be projected to finish in the top four of the NASL if relegation existed, and therefore fit better as "tier two" talent level teams. At the bottom, the trail end of the NASL falls in the bottom third of talent levels, and would appropriately be relegated to the lower division at the end of the year.
So how would this look for competitions?
You'd have the MLS teams competing each year for the Supporters Shield (or conference trophies). Almost every MLS team that also has a talent level in approximately the top third of professional teams will also qualify for the playoffs to compete for the MLS Cup.
Everyone would compete for the US Open Cup each year, with tier one talent teams all having a real shot at winning. That would include the top 2 NASL teams, which really gives that NASL tier something to aspire to and play for.
Finally, the CCL, which is obviously contested by the top MLS winners and the winner of the US Open Cup.
So to wrap up this long winded post, what do you think? Could this be an actual equilibrium for American club soccer, for both all financially interested parties and as acceptable in the eyes of the fans? Can the NASL keep the talent gap as close as I have indicated on my graph?
While we all know that's probably bullshit, in order to keep the illusion of scarcity and drive up the price of the expansion slots, it definitely piqued my interest again in thinking about how a "finished" MLS would impact and interact with the lower leagues.
So I made a thing:
Let me explain what's going here.
Once MLS closes it's doors for good (in this projection at 28 teams), there will be effectively two professional soccer ladders in America - the closed MLS represented in circles above, and the NASL represented in squares above.
The MLS will remain the top league in the country with the greatest level of investment, best markets, and largest fanbases. It will also remain relatively linear in talent distribution, due to the parity rules that MLS is fond of. Lastly, the MLS "ladder" would end with MLS teams and, obviously, no pro/reg to lower levels.
The NASL will remain the clear second division in the country, but there are some very solid markets available in the country that are locked out of MLS, not to mention second teams in Chicago, New York, and Miami. There's also plenty of foreign and domestic investor money, and an international player pool to supply the teams.
The NASL's decentralized nature will lead to two things: (1) top NASL teams will be able to invest enough to build very solid squads, and (2) the distribution of talent will be exponential rather than linear. As a result, some NASL teams may be better than the worse MLS team (four teams are in the above graphic), but are still unlikely to compete with the top MLS squads.
In addition, it's a poorly kept secret that the NASL eventually would like a pro/reg setup, and the NPSL has already been floated as that lower level. So the NASL ladder would be open and go down at least one level to NASL2/NPSL on the same exponential talent distribution curve. In the graphic above, I did both levels with 18 teams each (which would give a 34 game double round robin schedule).
Lastly, I shaded in areas that divide up the 64 professional teams into three equal tiers of teams, just to compare talent levels across leagues. You can see that at the top, about two teams in the NASL are able to call themselves "tier one" talent level. The bottom nine teams in MLS (i.e. most of the non-postseason qualifiers) would all be projected to finish in the top four of the NASL if relegation existed, and therefore fit better as "tier two" talent level teams. At the bottom, the trail end of the NASL falls in the bottom third of talent levels, and would appropriately be relegated to the lower division at the end of the year.
So how would this look for competitions?
You'd have the MLS teams competing each year for the Supporters Shield (or conference trophies). Almost every MLS team that also has a talent level in approximately the top third of professional teams will also qualify for the playoffs to compete for the MLS Cup.
Everyone would compete for the US Open Cup each year, with tier one talent teams all having a real shot at winning. That would include the top 2 NASL teams, which really gives that NASL tier something to aspire to and play for.
Finally, the CCL, which is obviously contested by the top MLS winners and the winner of the US Open Cup.
So to wrap up this long winded post, what do you think? Could this be an actual equilibrium for American club soccer, for both all financially interested parties and as acceptable in the eyes of the fans? Can the NASL keep the talent gap as close as I have indicated on my graph?
Lol the NASL guys are only interested in Pro-rel with MLS because they join the prestige of the league without paying 100+ mil. They won't want to devalue (funny same thing MLS owners are saying) their investment by allowing the poorer lower league clubs whose set ups are even cheaper than NASL's to join up.
I don't know about that. Peterson, the Commissioner of the NASL, was the one who floated the idea of a partnership with NPSL down the road.
By the way, I think the NPSL should already start preparing for it. They should create an Eastern Premier Conference and a Western Premier Conference that clubs can apply to be members of based on financial status and stadium capacity. Keep it separated east/west to keep travel costs down.
They could slowly raise the standards of those Premier Divisions until those clubs can qualify as a division three league and serve as a natural bridge to the NASL on a pro/reg ladder.
For example, the current conferences can remain grouped by region and sit at division four, as they currently are. To be promoted to division three, there's an application process based on financial status. Division three consists of the Eastern Premier Conference and the Western Premier Conference. To be promoted to division two, the team must either win the Eastern/Western Premier Conference, or win a playoff between the runners-up. Division two is a 18+ team NASL, and the bottom three get relegated each year.
(Division one would still be a closed MLS, I'm not crazy. But it would be an interesting way to organize the rest of American soccer.)
With a plan like this, they could probably lure some PDL clubs over too who have higher ambitions. Eventually maybe some USL teams who had ambition but come to realize they'll be locked out of MLS in perpetuity.
The problem with "in perpetuity" is that it's a long time. Just for fun let's assume the NASL/NPSL league catches on and succeeds. This could become a huge problem for MLS if it's a closed league though. You're always stuck with the same teams, and inevitably some will be just terrible and some will be great. No amount of forced parity will be able to avoid that as even now with the league only 20 years in we see teams that just aren't spending the money that other teams are.
The appeal of the NASL/NPSL idea is that could be much more of an "organic and natural" growth of a league system as opposed to the more manufactured MLS. If they can make it work in 5,000 and 10,000 seat stadiums across the country over many years it could eventually grow to rival (and subsume?) MLS. I realize that's a big if though, but having a single, locked "major" league cuts out a lot of places that would want to be included, places like Cincinnati, say, or Richmond, VA.
Note that I'm not talking 5 years but more like 30 or even 50.
Similar threads
