Expansion Rumors Megathread

[BossNYC]

So Tampa's a thing now. My guess is that Bill Edwards wants to use the stadium to drive up tourism, to drive up people wanting to move to places where he has houses.

I really like Tampa as a city.
I really like the Rowdies, unique look and name and strong history in American soccer.
Don't like that stadium. Separating the crowd like that could be damaging to the experience, I think.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I don't know about that. The market is sneakily large.

According to Neilsen, their TV market is the 11th largest at 1.8 million TV homes. That's larger than Phoenix, Detroit, Miami, Denver, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Sacramento, and St. Louis. It's about twice as large as other expansion candidates such as Charlotte, Indianapolis, Nashville, San Diego, Raleigh, San Antonio, and Las Vegas.

They'll be looked at extremely hard.

I believe the TV market may include Orlando. It certainly includes places like Sarasota/Bradenton, which is a hike.

That said, Tampa is a real city - but it is one that needs to get its infrastructure figured out. They've got all this incredible waterfront, and so much of the city is a flat, endless grid stretching inland. And don't get me started on the baseball stadium disaster.

Maybe a soccer stadium in a great location can help all that. I have a soft spot for the Rowdies, anyway. My first pro soccer game was a Rowdies game at Florida Field in the late 1970s.

Also, who doesn't want Freddy Adu back in MLS.

 

[BossNYC]

Ok, assuming Beckham gets his shit together and LA and Miami are 23 and 24, who look like the favorites for 25-28?

Right now, 25 looks like St. Louis. the league seems to have a special interest in this city with the NFL leaving. Probably feel there is a void they can fill.

26. Detroit. High caliber ownership from other US major leagues. That is a highly valued quality by the other owners. There's a lot of cheap land in Detroit to build on, too.

27. Tampa I think expanding the footprint in the Southeast will be a high priority especially now that Atlanta is coming in red hot. Population-wise it's by far the least represented in the league. I think the Tampa TV market is too big and the "Rowdies" franchise is too important to US soccer to pass on.

28. Sacramento I think the league would actually rather not add these guys here but the assured fanatical following will be too much to say no to.

That said, I think the league would rather add Las Vegas, San Antonio, Arizona, or San Diego over Sacramento so if a slam dunk bid from one of those three comes along pencil them in instead but the clock is ticking on them.

Also, Cincinnati or dark horse Indianapolis could unseat Detroit if they fumble on a stadium. Look for North Carolina or dark horse Nashville to steal Tampa's spot.

 

[LionNYC]

MLS will expand to 30 teams. That's the real number of American sports league, except for NFL.

St. Louis, Sacramento, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Detroit, San Antonio. Not in chronology order.

 

[joe]

Anyone familiar with Detroit and where a stadium might be located?

 

[21Architect]

MLS will expand to 30 teams. That's the real number of American sports league, except for NFL.

St. Louis, Sacramento, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Detroit, San Antonio. Not in chronology order.

Miami?

Or do you think Miami is dead in the water?

 

[sbrylski]

I believe the TV market may include Orlando. It certainly includes places like Sarasota/Bradenton, which is a hike.

That said, Tampa is a real city - but it is one that needs to get its infrastructure figured out. They've got all this incredible waterfront, and so much of the city is a flat, endless grid stretching inland. And don't get me started on the baseball stadium disaster.

Maybe a soccer stadium in a great location can help all that. I have a soft spot for the Rowdies, anyway. My first pro soccer game was a Rowdies game at Florida Field in the late 1970s.

Also, who doesn't want Freddy Adu back in MLS.

It does not include Orlando, that's a separate market on the list .

 

[sbrylski]

MLS will expand to 30 teams. That's the real number of American sports league, except for NFL.

St. Louis, Sacramento, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Detroit, San Antonio. Not in chronology order.

I think 32. As long as franchises are still rising in value, people will pay the market rate expansion fee and still project a profit. After 32 there is a fast approaching drop off in quality of markets though. And if MLS fully saturates, they lose the artificial scarcity bonus factored into franchise values.

In other words, I think there's ~36 viable markets but only 32 will get in, probably around 2030.

 

[LionNYC]

Miami?

Or do you think Miami is dead in the water?

I wrote six teams. That would make 28 plus Miami and LAFC.

 

[Shawn Ryu]

MLS has to go to Miami with or without Beckham.

I feel like its a important market, even if its fans are fickle, to say the least.

But strong Latino demographic screams demand.

Ideal scenario after 24:
St. Louis
Sacramento
Detroit
Calgary
San Antonio
Edmonton

 

[Gotham Gator]

Miami is a mirage. Sports just isn't a high priority down there, and while there is a big Latino population, it is predominantly Cuban, and they prefer baseball (and still don't show up for Marlins games).

 

[Gotham Gator]

I actually like the idea of Carolina a lot - especially given how Atlanta has been rolling out. Tampa is a question given the proximity of Orlando.

 

[sbrylski]

MLS has to go to Miami with or without Beckham.

I feel like its a important market, even if its fans are fickle, to say the least.

But strong Latino demographic screams demand.

Ideal scenario after 24:
St. Louis
Sacramento
Detroit
Calgary
San Antonio
Edmonton

The CSA won't allow any more Canadian MLS teams with the CPL coming down the pipe.

Also, Calgary and Edmonton are large cities for Canada, but small for North America as a whole. Edmonton's metro area is a little less than 1.2 million. Raleigh, the *smaller* of the two Carolina markets interested in MLS, is nearly double the size at 2.1 million.

 

[BossNYC]

I actually like the idea of Carolina a lot - especially given how Atlanta has been rolling out. Tampa is a question given the proximity of Orlando.

I do, too, actually.

I actually had Carolina as my favorite over Tampa but Tampa has an established brand and a stadium already there. We have a new brand in Carolina and no stadium in sight, yet, so I gave the edge to Tampa.

Florida, like Texas or California, is a big state that is still growing. That's why I think two teams won't be enough there. The proximity to Orlando might actually be viewed positively by the owners because it will create a natural rival.

 

[21Architect]

Miami is a mirage. Sports just isn't a high priority down there, and while there is a big Latino population, it is predominantly Cuban, and they prefer baseball (and still don't show up for Marlins games).

This is mostly true. It's definitely a bandwagon sports town (I live in Miami as I've mentioned).

Team is winning and in the playoffs? EVERYONE is a fan.

Cubans do show up to Marlins games. Does every Cuban in Miami go to games, no. But they make up a big portion of the attendance.

There is a ton of resentment toward Marlins ownership after they let Cabrera walk.

 

[Falastur]

The CSA won't allow any more Canadian MLS teams with the CPL coming down the pipe.

Also, Calgary and Edmonton are large cities for Canada, but small for North America as a whole. Edmonton's metro area is a little less than 1.2 million. Raleigh, the *smaller* of the two Carolina markets interested in MLS, is nearly double the size at 2.1 million.

You think there might ever be a movement, either initiated by the clubs, or pushed by MLS, or by the CSA, to repatriate the existing Canadian MLS teams to the CPL once it's gotten going? A kind of "we like you here, but it's really best for you to play in your own country" type thing. Or will the CPL always be so small-fry compared to MLS that those clubs simply refuse, for financial or exposure reasons? (I know that they would probably want to stay for those reasons, but I'm wondering whether they could actually get away with it)

 

[Ulrich]

You think there might ever be a movement, either initiated by the clubs, or pushed by MLS, or by the CSA, to repatriate the existing Canadian MLS teams to the CPL once it's gotten going? A kind of "we like you here, but it's really best for you to play in your own country" type thing. Or will the CPL always be so small-fry compared to MLS that those clubs simply refuse, for financial or exposure reasons? (I know that they would probably want to stay for those reasons, but I'm wondering whether they could actually get away with it)

The *only* way I see that conversation even starting is if MLS allows the clubs to sell their spot to a new expansion team to recoup their stake in the league. If they can't do that then they won't ever leave.

 

[Falastur]

The *only* way I see that conversation even starting is if MLS allows the clubs to sell their spot to a new expansion team to recoup their stake in the league. If they can't do that then they won't ever leave.

Compulsory purchase by the league for an above-market-value price, if they decide they specifically want to distance themselves from the Canadian teams?

 

[Shawn Ryu]

The CSA won't allow any more Canadian MLS teams with the CPL coming down the pipe.

Also, Calgary and Edmonton are large cities for Canada, but small for North America as a whole. Edmonton's metro area is a little less than 1.2 million. Raleigh, the *smaller* of the two Carolina markets interested in MLS, is nearly double the size at 2.1 million.

LOL as if anyone in Canada will care about the new Canadian league. Division II league. Fair enough. About the market size though. MLS is THE top dog in Canada whether CSA likes it or not.

As for Miami and Marlins, I would not give Jeffrey Loria a dime.

Atlanta is a much worse sports town. Got a team BTW.

 

[Kjbert]

MLS will expand into whatever market is willing to pay the expansion fee. If there are 20 groups out there willing to invest $75 Million, they will add the bulk of those investment groups. They are not in a position to turn down capital injections. If Carolina, Las Vegas, Detroit, St. Louis, Carolina all pony up the franchise fee, they will all join (and relatively quickly).