General MLS Discussion
- Thread starter Shwafta
- Start date
We haven't talked much about xPoints, and I'm not going to explain it or try to sell you on it, except it is loosely like Pythagorean baseball in that it calculates a team's most likely point value based on other underlying stats. It also works best over large data sets so teams can do significantly better or worse than they "should" in 34 game seasons. But 10 game samples are really, really small, and right now 3 MLS teams are doing better than predicted by amounts greater than any team has ever maintained over a full season, and 6 of the top 7 are 2021 teams with data going back to 2013.
The number is the amount of extra points per game they have earned over what the model predicts:
2021 LA Galaxy 0.90
2021 Orlando 0.65
2021 New England 0.62
2014 DC United 0.56
2021 Seattle 0.55
2021 Columbus 0.51
201 Colorado 0.48
Outside of 2014 DCU, the most any team exceeded its xG per game over a full 34 game season was by 0.43. The point is, those six 2021 teams are probably getting points at a pace that they cannot possibly sustain for 34 games. The Galaxy number is in another, well, galaxy. They are earning almost a full point per game than the model says they should. The Orlando and Revs data is good news for NYCFC. NYCFC has a negative per game variance of -0.34 so far. That's low, and will probably improve, but it's not so bad it could not possibly be sustained or even get a bit worse (not likely but possible). Also, the Crew have a mediocre record and probably have not played well enough even to deserve that. They are arguably the most overrated team of pre-season 2021.
On the other end, the current 4 worst single season teams all time are also from 2021:
2021 Chicago -0.93
2021 Toronto -0.76
2021 LAFC -0.61
2021 DC United -0.51
This is again a function of very small sample sets of roughly 10 games. Chicago and Toronto are not exactly good, but they are better than their record. Chicago's number is as unsustainably bad as the Galaxy's is good. Expect LAFC and DC to show improvement and move up into playoff range. Nashville not quite as extreme (-0.44) but also should get better results than it has to date.
All time, NYC has a positive variance of +0.1 per game, which is second best over the years NYC has been in the league. As you see, the variances get smaller with more games in the sample set.
The number is the amount of extra points per game they have earned over what the model predicts:
2021 LA Galaxy 0.90
2021 Orlando 0.65
2021 New England 0.62
2014 DC United 0.56
2021 Seattle 0.55
2021 Columbus 0.51
201 Colorado 0.48
Outside of 2014 DCU, the most any team exceeded its xG per game over a full 34 game season was by 0.43. The point is, those six 2021 teams are probably getting points at a pace that they cannot possibly sustain for 34 games. The Galaxy number is in another, well, galaxy. They are earning almost a full point per game than the model says they should. The Orlando and Revs data is good news for NYCFC. NYCFC has a negative per game variance of -0.34 so far. That's low, and will probably improve, but it's not so bad it could not possibly be sustained or even get a bit worse (not likely but possible). Also, the Crew have a mediocre record and probably have not played well enough even to deserve that. They are arguably the most overrated team of pre-season 2021.
On the other end, the current 4 worst single season teams all time are also from 2021:
2021 Chicago -0.93
2021 Toronto -0.76
2021 LAFC -0.61
2021 DC United -0.51
This is again a function of very small sample sets of roughly 10 games. Chicago and Toronto are not exactly good, but they are better than their record. Chicago's number is as unsustainably bad as the Galaxy's is good. Expect LAFC and DC to show improvement and move up into playoff range. Nashville not quite as extreme (-0.44) but also should get better results than it has to date.
All time, NYC has a positive variance of +0.1 per game, which is second best over the years NYC has been in the league. As you see, the variances get smaller with more games in the sample set.
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I can’t deal with Stadium porn right now. I’ve been to three games now at RBA and as much as I have accepted going to Yankee Stadium for soccer matches I’m enjoying the feel of a real soccer stadium. The acoustics are so much more fun.
i hear you. it's just nice to imagine what we could have. RBA is great to watch games at, but a horror to get to and do anything else except sit in your seat and watch the game.
I agree, acoustics in an actual SSS are much better but I think we do a pretty decent job at YS considering how open it is. Acoustics at citi field are even worse for some reason. For now, I will keep dreaming.
the fall of TFC is so amusing to see... 7-1 loss to DC .. lol.
i think the team is in shambles right now. Armas has lost the locker room and the team just doesn't care anymore. add to the fact that they can't play at bmo field yet with their fans, being away from family, etc.. and they're just over it.
The three teams who started the day ahead of NYCFC in the standings just earned a combined 1 out of a possible 9 points.
When I was a kid I wanted to do a tour of MLB natural grass non cookie cutter baseball stadiums. Fenway, Shea, Wrigley... looked like a different (and better) way to experience the game than Veterans Stadium in South Philadelphia.
I’ve watched videos on FCC and MU’s stadium. I’ve Google earthed Budesliga stadiums...
I have no criticism for engaging in stadium porn. I just want to make that clear.
And yes. We do a good job at YS and I appreciate it for what it is.
Shocked he ever was considered for the job to begin with. So, definitely not surprised he killed TFC and got sacked. Too bad none of our rivals need a new coach. he can go destroy them too.
His time in Toronto reminds me of Kreis here: he didn’t get a fair chance but he needed to be fired anyway.
Though Seattle still hasn't lost they dropped points 2 weeks in a row, and NYCFC sits atop the 538 standings as MLS Cup favorite.
Doesn't Miami have like 50 "offensive sparks" on their team? so much for having proven goalscorers...
In other news, New England lost at home, to Toronto, and Orlando lost in Chicago. Toronto and Chicago had a combined 13 points going in to those games, which would still be below the playoff line if held by a single team. They also combined for fewer points total than our opponent Montreal, whether you measure before or after last night's action.
Meaning: we blew an opportunity to gain ground, but we also were not even close to having the worst loss last night.
Meaning: we blew an opportunity to gain ground, but we also were not even close to having the worst loss last night.
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If we win against Columbus then ok games played we will be still in 3rd place. If we lose however, good chance we drop below the playoff line.
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