General MLS Discussion

Ronny Deila and Atlanta United are having an all-time underperforming/unlucky season based on GD-xGD. Their actual GD is 0.79 lower per game than their xGD. NO MLS team has had a worse number over a full season since ASA started in 2013. A lot of that is because Guzan is old and not very good any more so they concede more goals than their field play would suggest, but the offensive underperformance is equal to that of the defensive side.

Ronny's NYCFC teams were up and down on this scale. The 2021 championship season was crazy, with a cumulative -05.81 GD-xGD over the first 30 games ("Deila Out!"), then an absurd +5.03 over the final 4, with continued good performance in the post-season ("Please Stay Ronny").

Atlanta is not exactly good, but their field play is good enough they should have a GD of negative 1 or 2 instead of -18, and enough points to be in the play-in game if they were in the West.

Ronny needs to sit Guzan. The GM might probably need to target a new #1 keeper in 2026. And Deila should get a second year, or most of one at least. Ronny did not cause the -5 GD-xGD play through the first 30 games of 2021, nor did he cause the reversal to +5 in the final 4 games and then playoffs. All he did was put a system in place to give the team a chance to do well, which they wasted for much of 2021 and then exceeded in a fortunately timed brief burst at the end.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
Great stuff. Makes me curious about Guzan’s G-xGOT stats.
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He ranks 23 and 26 out of 30 on ASA's 2 main goaltending metrics for keepers with 1250 minutes minimum, both of which use post-shot xGA.

Freese ranks just 9th and 10th, as NYC continues to benefit from opponents who waste their xG by shooting poorly. That is, NYC's post-shot xGA of 31.17 is much lower than their regular xGA of 37.72. Either we are lucky that opponents just happen to shoot poorly considering the quality of their chances, or as FootyLovin theorized, some unmeasured positioning/anticipation efforts by Freese and/or our defenders tends to cause opponents to shoot poorly in ways that the metrics don't cover. Whatever the cause, that >6+ delta between xGA and as-shot xGA represents the bulk of NYCFC's +7.32 GD-xGD. We have a G-xG of -4.40, entirely due to Alonso of all people (-4.53). He has the third highest xG in the league behind Surridge and Cuypers but is tied for 10th in actual goals. The rest of the GD-xGD is Freese.
 
I hope they don't can him at the end of the year -- Atlanta is notoriously impatient with its managers so I do think he's in trouble. But you're right about Guzan and Ronny should get a second year there.
 
ZYanksRule said:
I hope they don't can him at the end of the year -- Atlanta is notoriously impatient with its managers so I do think he's in trouble.
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Also I can say from experience that fans have close to zero appetite for analysis that says a team is underperforming metrics but it's not the coach's fault. So much of the NYCFC fanbase wanted Deila gone at various points before the Gudi free kick.
 
mgarbowski said:
He ranks 23 and 26 out of 30 on ASA's 2 main goaltending metrics for keepers with 1250 minutes minimum, both of which use post-shot xGA.

Freese ranks just 9th and 10th, as NYC continues to benefit from opponents who waste their xG by shooting poorly. That is, NYC's post-shot xGA of 31.17 is much lower than their regular xGA of 37.72. Either we are lucky that opponents just happen to shoot poorly considering the quality of their chances, or as FootyLovin theorized, some unmeasured positioning/anticipation efforts by Freese and/or our defenders tends to cause opponents to shoot poorly in ways that the metrics don't cover. Whatever the cause, that >6+ delta between xGA and as-shot xGA represents the bulk of NYCFC's +7.32 GD-xGD. We have a G-xG of -4.40, entirely due to Alonso of all people (-4.53). He has the third highest xG in the league behind Surridge and Cuypers but is tied for 10th in actual goals. The rest of the GD-xGD is Freese.
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Can you separate baseball stadium matches from soccer stadium matches? I wonder if that affects the post-shot xGA in that players usual points of reference are all thrown off.
 
FootyLovin said:
Can you separate baseball stadium matches from soccer stadium matches? I wonder if that affects the post-shot xGA in that players usual points of reference are all thrown off.
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Not without a ton of work. The regular xGA is part of the team stats at ASA and can be split between Home and Away. But the post shot xGA is included in the goalkeepers page, which does not provide H/A splits. I would need to do multiple date range sorts for both Freese and Romero to isolate the home and away data.
The RBA/SIS games are not an issue because they were all Leagues Cup and not in the ASA data.
 
mgarbowski said:
Not without a ton of work. The regular xGA is part of the team stats at ASA and can be split between Home and Away. But the post shot xGA is included in the goalkeepers page, which does not provide H/A splits. I would need to do multiple date range sorts for both Freese and Romero to isolate the home and away data.
The RBA/SIS games are not an issue because they were all Leagues Cup and not in the ASA data.
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Definitely not asking you to do all that legwork. But I do think it is a plausible theory.
 
mgarbowski said:
  1. More likely it's written to give them flexibility because they disclosed a possibility.
  2. If they do flip the schedule it isn't guaranteed to happen by 2027.
  3. I agree with you they probably will flip the schedule. It's more a question of when than if.
I don't think this tidbit from Paul Tenorio was posted here before:
"But the board is behind [a schedule flip]. One source told The Athletic that an unofficial straw poll conducted here indicated as many as 27 of 30 owners in favor of the change."​
www.nytimes.com

MLS’s calendar, roster changes aren’t happening yet, but it’s a matter of time

Despite expectation that MLS would take official steps toward significant foundational change, progress on that front is evident
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

I'd also like to know whether there are any undisclosed cold weather mitigation options buried in the stadium plans.
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They discussed a break in the winter
 
Gene said:
Can they suspend him?
Technically it wasn't an MLS match.
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Clint Dempsey was suspended 3 MLS matches (and 6 U.S. Open Cup matches or 2 years, whichever first) for his conduct towards the referee in the U.S. Open Cup. That however if referee conduct which is USSF regulations and extended into league play.

Leagues Cup is controlled by MLS, but we'll see if the Soccer Don has the balls to actually enforce a deserved suspension for the biting, spitter Suarez.
 
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