Excellent summary.
It's also still possible that winning is still a bigger factor than star value. We certainly do not yet have data that suggests an opposite conclusion. NYCFC hasn't won anything, so it's no surprise attendance has not recovered. Last year ended in disastrous fashion and this year started the same. Then the team recovered, but was essentially on track to finish with similar point totals as the last 3 years until quite recently. All the team has done to date this year that is new is win a couple of USOC games and avoid the late season swoon they had in 2017 and 2018. The team didn't climb into first place until a week ago, and until winning 19 of the last 21 points starting 5.5 months into the season, and immediately following a disappointing stretch of getting just 9 points out of 21 plus losing a USOC game to Orlando. Lots of people here who are STHs are only now coming to believe this year might be different. I don't think you can say the public is failing to respond to a winning team because in the first weekend game after reaching first place we didn't get 25k at noon-30 against San Jose, or even based on a midweek game coming up against Atlanta.