I am not sure if that scenario happens, we would be guaranteed a spot....would need the mls cup winner to already have qualified
NYCFC Season Discussion 2025: Party Like It's 2023 (2024 If You're Lucky)
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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Correct. We earn a provisional spot. The MLS Cup winner would have to be either Cincinnati, Miami, Nashville, Philadelphia, Seattle, or Vancouver.
So those four results plus MLS Cup winner and we're in!
Directly qualify to the Round of 16
Or we just have to sign Messi. Then we are in no matter what the rules say.
Ah yes, (in French accent) le cheatcode
The season ended rather poorly with just 3 points from the last 12, a -4 Goal Differential, and just 1 goal in the 3 losses.
From 2017-2022 NYC's record against the West was 1.86 PPG. From 2023-2025 it has been 0.72. This year it was 0.67.
Excluding the weirdness of 2020 (games in Disney, no fans), this was the team's third best Away record at 1.35 PPG behind 2019 (1.53) and 2016 (1.41).
This year saw more Home losses (6) than every NYCFC season but 2015. We had as many Home losses as Away losses. Only 10 teams had more Home losses. That all rather sucked. It was also only the second time (with the weird 2020) that there were no Home ties. 2025 also tied for second most NYCFC season home wins with 11. Combined, this was only NYCFC's 7th best Home record at 1.94 PPG, tied with 2024. It was a rather meh home season.
Tepid Offense
We were completely reliant on our top 2 goal scorers. The total goals of our 3rd, 4th and 5th best scorers was 9. The average among other Eastern Conference playoff teams ("ECPT") was 16.5. As a result, NYCFC's record when neither Martinez nor Wolf scored was 2-11-3 for 0.56 PPG. Of course every team's record when it's top 2 scorers do not score will be comparatively poor, and I'm not doing the work for other teams, but that's rather hideous. Neither Martinez nor Wolf scored in the final 4 games.
The average total goals scored by other ECPT was 61.13. Exclude Miami as an outlier and it was 58.29. We scored 50.
The average non-PK goals scored by other ECPT was 57.13. Exclude Miami as an outlier and it was 54. We scored 45.
The average goals scored by other ECPT excluding their top 2 scorers was 31.13. Drop Miami as an outlier and it was 29.71. We scored 22.
This team was shut out 10 times. That ties for the most in club history with 2023 and a pro-rated 2020. Only 6 MLS teams suffered more shutouts in 2025.
Our defense was good. With 44 Goals Allowed NYCFC ranked third among ECPT. But it was not so good it overcame this offense. Among 9 ECPT, NYCFC ranked 8th in Goal Differential.
Fernandez Mercau had 3 goals in 11 games. Hopefully he can score 8-12 goals next year. But there's a good chance Wolf will fall back. He scored 11 goals on just 6.90 xG. That is unlikely to repeat. On the flip side, Martinez scored only 17 on 22.11 xG. In 2024 he exceeded his xG by a similar but opposite amount, scoring 16 on just 9.28 xG. There's no predicting how that will fall out in 2026. His non-penalty xG/90 dropped by a small amount year over year, which is acceptable to me given how high it still is at 0.56. That's good for 8th best in the league and he added 1,000 minutes.
After 12 games I noted that NYCFC had 4 PK attempts compared to just 1 for their opponents. When I suggested this was an unreliable advantage some pointed out that Martinez's style of play is well suited to draw PKs. It's a fair point, but I still believe PKs are very random and unreliable. In the remaining 20 games since then NYCFC was awarded 3 PK attempts and opponents received 4.
Fernandez and Ojeda played a combined 1156 more minutes in 2025 than in 2024. Their goals scored went down from 5 to 3. Ojeda went from 3 to 0. After Ojeda's breakout performance against Red Bull Jansen gave him just 59 minutes over the final 2 games.
Given how I expect Wolf to fall back, the addition of Nico Fernandez Mercau is just treading water. NYCFC needs, at a minimum, to add at least 1 more scorer who can be counted on to add 8-12 goals. Two such players would be much better.
From 2017-2022 NYC's record against the West was 1.86 PPG. From 2023-2025 it has been 0.72. This year it was 0.67.
Excluding the weirdness of 2020 (games in Disney, no fans), this was the team's third best Away record at 1.35 PPG behind 2019 (1.53) and 2016 (1.41).
This year saw more Home losses (6) than every NYCFC season but 2015. We had as many Home losses as Away losses. Only 10 teams had more Home losses. That all rather sucked. It was also only the second time (with the weird 2020) that there were no Home ties. 2025 also tied for second most NYCFC season home wins with 11. Combined, this was only NYCFC's 7th best Home record at 1.94 PPG, tied with 2024. It was a rather meh home season.
Tepid Offense
We were completely reliant on our top 2 goal scorers. The total goals of our 3rd, 4th and 5th best scorers was 9. The average among other Eastern Conference playoff teams ("ECPT") was 16.5. As a result, NYCFC's record when neither Martinez nor Wolf scored was 2-11-3 for 0.56 PPG. Of course every team's record when it's top 2 scorers do not score will be comparatively poor, and I'm not doing the work for other teams, but that's rather hideous. Neither Martinez nor Wolf scored in the final 4 games.
The average total goals scored by other ECPT was 61.13. Exclude Miami as an outlier and it was 58.29. We scored 50.
The average non-PK goals scored by other ECPT was 57.13. Exclude Miami as an outlier and it was 54. We scored 45.
The average goals scored by other ECPT excluding their top 2 scorers was 31.13. Drop Miami as an outlier and it was 29.71. We scored 22.
This team was shut out 10 times. That ties for the most in club history with 2023 and a pro-rated 2020. Only 6 MLS teams suffered more shutouts in 2025.
Our defense was good. With 44 Goals Allowed NYCFC ranked third among ECPT. But it was not so good it overcame this offense. Among 9 ECPT, NYCFC ranked 8th in Goal Differential.
Fernandez Mercau had 3 goals in 11 games. Hopefully he can score 8-12 goals next year. But there's a good chance Wolf will fall back. He scored 11 goals on just 6.90 xG. That is unlikely to repeat. On the flip side, Martinez scored only 17 on 22.11 xG. In 2024 he exceeded his xG by a similar but opposite amount, scoring 16 on just 9.28 xG. There's no predicting how that will fall out in 2026. His non-penalty xG/90 dropped by a small amount year over year, which is acceptable to me given how high it still is at 0.56. That's good for 8th best in the league and he added 1,000 minutes.
After 12 games I noted that NYCFC had 4 PK attempts compared to just 1 for their opponents. When I suggested this was an unreliable advantage some pointed out that Martinez's style of play is well suited to draw PKs. It's a fair point, but I still believe PKs are very random and unreliable. In the remaining 20 games since then NYCFC was awarded 3 PK attempts and opponents received 4.
Fernandez and Ojeda played a combined 1156 more minutes in 2025 than in 2024. Their goals scored went down from 5 to 3. Ojeda went from 3 to 0. After Ojeda's breakout performance against Red Bull Jansen gave him just 59 minutes over the final 2 games.
Given how I expect Wolf to fall back, the addition of Nico Fernandez Mercau is just treading water. NYCFC needs, at a minimum, to add at least 1 more scorer who can be counted on to add 8-12 goals. Two such players would be much better.
On offense we will be entering the offseason in nearly the same position as last year. The only difference is we swapped Nico for Santi. Are we running it back again for year three of hoping Ojeda and Ferendez will magically breakout and fill that roll of 1-2 more goal scorers or is the team ready to hedge a bit and sign at least one more proven attacker? Even if it means pushing the young Argentinian down the depth chart and costing them development minuets.
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In early 2024 we also had Jovan and Malachi Jones. On paper we were stacked with offensive bodies and potential. We've loaned Jovan away with no replacement, and Malachi's possible return is a complete wildcard. Even if we had a guarantee he returns with 100% recovery, with full strength and speed, we've no idea what he can contribute because he played just 488 minutes.
If they don't - at minimum - replace Jovan with someone new (preferably a bit older and established) it's a joke. I'll even be disappointed if we do that and run it back with Ojeda, Fernandez and Jones, hoping that 1 of those 3 breaks out. I think the most likely result is we ship off Ojeda or Fernandez, maybe even within MLS, but replace him with a similar player of potential.
56 points is nice but it still only left us in 5th. I'm convinced we overachieved. We can't compete at the top level with this offense. I'm going to rain on everyone's mood right now and say this year was barely better than last year.
We have 6 more points. We finished 1 spot higher in the standings. Beyond that there is no real improvement.
| 2024 | 2025 | Notes | |
| Points | 50 | 56 | nice jump |
| Place | 6th | 5th | nice again |
| What If | 3 more pts puts us in 4th | 3 more pts puts us in 4th | dead even |
| GD | 5 | 6 | OK |
| xGD | 3.37 | 3.33 | It's the same picture meme |
| xPts | 49.08 | 48.54 | Nathan Fillion meme |
| GD-xGD | +1.63 | +2.67 | a bit better |
| Pts - xPts | +0.92 | +7.46 | now this is interesting |
Maybe good coaches like Jansen have an actual ability to squeeze more juice from the lemon and finish out wins?
For reference, 2024 Coach of the Year Wilfried Nancy managed achieve a Pts-xPts of +10.45. But this year it was only +2.57.
In 2016 Patrick Viera had Pts-xPts of +7.38, very close to Jansen this year. In 2017 Viera managed just +1.14.
Still, 2017 NYCFC had 3 more points than 2016, so it worked out? Yes, but really because we added Johnson, Moralez, Callens, Ring, Herrera, Wallace, and Lewis, among others. Hell, even newly acquired Ben Sweat had a +2.35 Goals Added value per ASA. Team xGD improved by more than 14 and GD improved by 8. It was arguably the biggest and most successful 1-year roster overhaul in team history and it only added 3 points because the same very good coach could not maintain the same level of over-achievement year over year.
Coaches aren't magicians. It is very hard, maybe impossible, to consistently outperform your roster or your underlying numbers year after year after year. It's also quite hard to improve your underlying numbers without a better roster. If this roster does not improve significantly, I think 56 points is a ceiling next year. I'm glad we will have a new Sporting Director because I think someone new with a distanced perspective will be better able to see this than Lee would have been. OTOH if CFG rules dictate everything how much does it matter?
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I agree this is the time to ship out either Ojeda or Fernández, and I bet on Fernández. We paid less for him, and he has marketable upside: high-end pace, an elite left-footed curler, and decent counting stats. We can likely find a buyer who thinks they can fix his positional issues and will pay close to our investment. Ojeda is a different issue; he cost considerably more, and his stats are worse. We won't recoup his value now, so we might as well roll the dice for another year and hope for future development.
The big wildcard in all the projections is the threat of sudden departures. Given the club's history of accommodating player-requested moves, exits are always looming. What happens if Wolf or Martínez want to return to Europe, or if a "Santi-type" offer comes in for Martínez? Illenic can't be happy on the bench, and Haak's contract talks are reportedly stalled. I'd bet at least one core starter and one rotation player are gone by the time we enter camp next year. For a club with little quality depth, how quickly and effectively they replace those inevitable departures will impact next season as much as any of the needed addtions.
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