Nycfc Unluckiest Team In Mls This Season

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

According to this article.

Tons of maths in the article that I wish I could understand. Passes the eye test though, we've seem to get no breaks while watching the other team get every lucky bounce.

 

[SayWhat44]

We've been unlucky, and bad yet also good.

 

[Falastur]

The thing is, most pundits wouldn't argue that teams that get the most shots necessarily deserve the wins - that's why shot-to-goal conversion rates exist, and why teams with poor conversion rates get rightly criticised for not having the cutting edge to carve out goals and results.

At the end of the day, a perfect through ball leaving the striker with a gaping target counts for just as many shots on target as a feeble shot through a crowd of players who stop the ball from even coming close to the keeper, yet the team that can muster 20 feeble shots but can never make a clear goalscoring opportunity is not necessarily a better team than the one which creates 15 beautiful chances and scores many of them because the defence has been taken out before the shot is even attempted.

 

[mgarbowski]

He claims to have adjusted for each team's finishing rates in both directions: "What I’ve done to address this is make an adjustment to all of the expected goals results based on the average offensive and defensive finishing rates allowed for each team. " So this is not a simple measure of shots attempted or possession. He has another article looking at possession, passes, shot attempts, in various combinations, and concludes that (for MLS at least) the only thing that matters is the finishing rate. it's interesting stuff.

 

[Falastur]

Got to admit, I read it a couple of times looking for a mitigating clause like that but somehow never saw that - I think I misread it as something else.

Fair play, I may have to re-read the article and see if it makes a different impression on me the second time around.

 

[mgarbowski]

At some point you have to take it on faith that he's not making it up or guilty of some fundamental error, because he doesn't show his work. But conceptually he seems to be on track.

 

[JGarrettLieb]

Math checks out.

I like this website, I'm going to read through it some more, it looks like there is some stuff that could be applied to NYCFC.

 

[FredMertz]

This is a complete wank-fest. Unlucky or dreadful finishers or take more bullshit shots? Think about it, he's adjusting up for teams that suck at finishing.

 

[Gene]

This is a complete wank-fest. Unlucky or dreadful finishers or take more bullshit shots? Think about it, he's adjusting up for teams that suck at finishing.

^^^This.

TBH, I'm not even going to pretend I understood a single word that was written. To put it simply, to a dumbass like me, "unlucky" is giving up goals like the one Kaka scored against us in game one and "dreadful finishing" is Mullins putting one over the bar vs Columbus after a sweet set up from Lampard.