I've no info about this beyond what's in the tweet.
Pre-season 2016 Mls Cup Odds
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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I've no info about this beyond what's in the tweet.
If both of these are accurate, our odds against more than doubled. I do vaguely remember seeing the 15-1 last year, which was, in retrospect, delusional.
33-1
- These odds put us at 7th, below the red line.
- I can't see the Red Bulls as favorites having lost their best defender.
- I can't see LA as the western favorite having signed players of a certain age.
15-1
- 4th in the East, home playoff knockout game
These are some crazy spreads variations. Bookies must not know a lot about MLS.
SpicyRoll
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Our team is full of unknowns, so I'd say we're where we should be. Our back four will potentially be completely different from last season and the public has no idea how our "mess" of a midfield will be sorted out this season. Yes, I definitely believe our team has improved this offseason on paper not only for this season, but the outlook for the next few seasons as well, but we haven't seen anything on the field that'll lead us to believe we'll have a much improved product.
The rest of the league has improved as well with some solid signings this transfer window. I believe, once again, the level of competition will improve next season compared to previous years.
The rest of the league has improved as well with some solid signings this transfer window. I believe, once again, the level of competition will improve next season compared to previous years.
FIFY
Those odds are nuts. You could damn near get the field below the top 6 and still have a good ROR.
Also, don't forget, these reflect action as much as anything. If you bet much, what you learn is early season and little known leagues are a big blind spot for linesmakers. I know some people who kill it betting Ivy League football. Vegas has no clue, so they throw up a line.
I bet these are about like ivy football odds. I might go lay some coin on the teams from SKC to us.
Also, don't forget, these reflect action as much as anything. If you bet much, what you learn is early season and little known leagues are a big blind spot for linesmakers. I know some people who kill it betting Ivy League football. Vegas has no clue, so they throw up a line.
I bet these are about like ivy football odds. I might go lay some coin on the teams from SKC to us.
Don't bet on Columbia
Jane, you well-informed chaste woman.
Can you do some late 2000s-present SNL stuff? That's what I know.
I was there that glorious day in 1988 when we broke the 44-game losing streak.
http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1988/C...-Football/id-05023eccd9796fb1a0b1480b1d79654a
The 1986 grad quoted in this article who never before saw the team win, was my buddy.
They never got any better.
We did, however, nearly win the 1983 NCAA soccer championship, losing in 2x overtime to Indiana University.
But yeah, don't bet on Columbia.
s
21Architect
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I think a few people in this thread are glossing over the WIN the MLS Cup aspect of this.
Often in these Futures wagers (take MLB World Series Futures for example) casual fans see TONS of value on Team A or way off odds. But these aren't odds to make the playoffs or win a conference. It's to win the whole thing and a lot has to go right for this to happen. Look where we stand in these Futures and then look at Orlando. And I'm assuming Red Bulls have the easiest schedule in 2016?
Often in these Futures wagers (take MLB World Series Futures for example) casual fans see TONS of value on Team A or way off odds. But these aren't odds to make the playoffs or win a conference. It's to win the whole thing and a lot has to go right for this to happen. Look where we stand in these Futures and then look at Orlando. And I'm assuming Red Bulls have the easiest schedule in 2016?
As Midas Mulligan says though, the odds are much more easily exploitable because LV is flying more blind than usual allowing a crafty gambler to find simple edges and aggregate and hedge accordingly.
Exactly. And the parity/unknowable element of what 21Architect states is the reason these specific odds are wack. I haven't done the math, but first impression is that you could take the entire field and still have some good upside / inexpensive hedges.
To oversimplify what Jay & I are advoicating, look at it this way. I would maybe pick FCD as my favorite right now, and they are 10-1. Let's say that held. So I could then place 10 "free" bets on longshots, all of whom are ostensibly going to be in the playoff field based on a comparison of odds. Or, consider that I can get around 5.5 to 1 for any one of SKC, NER, MTL & NYC. Either way you look at it, they seem off given how small the field is, and "off" means exploitable.
Sign me up for low price and lots of upside exposure everyday. Only need to hit one, baby. The rest can fall to 0 and no damns will be given.
21Architect
Registered
I think we can all agree that MLS futures are less efficient than NFL or MLB markets for that matter.
But forgive me for saying this but there is an air of "wagering on MLS Futures is easy money" in your post. I urge you to "do the math" before taking a position on the entire field looking for positive expected value hedges down the road.
Other issues will be outs and limits. I doubt an offshore book such as 5Dimes will allow you to wager more than $500-$1K on a MLS Future.
If you were not implying that this is an easy money scenario I apologize.
Not easy, but more in favor of the bettor than one would usually see (or less efficient, as you put it). There aren't enough teams and clear favorites for linesmakers to really stick it to you because they have no idea. I think 5.5 or 6 to 1 for 20% of the league and 1/3 of the projected playoff field is decent odds.
I miss the good old days when MLS had a lower profile and the line on each match was often so crazy for a league with such parity. The best was when the Galaxy signed Beckham, betting against the Galaxy was such a sure bet, you were often getting 4, 5, and even up to 7 to 1 against the Galaxy! If I were a bigger bettor, I would probably own this club right now and would have already built our stadium!
Wouldn't a Sure Bet be to bet against RB, because they will never, ever win the cup ?
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