Speculating Vs. Investing: A Contrarian Reaction To Lampard

[Volante]

I'm not angry at all about Lampard's extension because I share a fundamentally different set of assumptions about what NYC FC is.

Let me describe two different sets of assumptions at play here: those of the speculator and those of the investor. I believe the speculator attitude which spawns this anger with Lampard is likely to lead to frustration on other issues too so if you find yourself with it, this attitude might be worth questioning now.

The "Speculator" Perspective
====================

The speculator operates with the key assumption that they're invested in a rising star that can only be an exceptional investment not in 5 or 10 years, but starting right now.

Key pillars of this belief system include:

• NYC is a world-class city, which only merits world-class teams (i.e. Yankees) with world-class players (e.g. Lampard)
  
  
• NYC FC as a "football club" must have a special relationship with fans and community in this world-class city.
  
  
• With a world-class team in a world-class city, NYC FC will propel the league of MLS to world-class heights.

Most likely, these beliefs drove a lot of the members of this forum to plunk down for season tickets for a team that didn't even exist, playing in a baseball park within a league with a $3 million salary cap.

The "Investor" Perspective
==================

The investor sees NYC FC as a start-up in the world's most competitive sport. If they make enough good moves and have a lot of luck, they could be a great investment in 5 or 10 years but most likely they're going to have to prove themselves out over time paying little dividends of entertainment along the way.

Key pillars of this belief system include:

• NYC is a world-class city, but that's rarely meant we have world-class teams. In an era of salary caps and parity, money can't buy success in US sport. Most of NYC's teams are regular losers -- that doesn't mean they're not interesting to support.
  
  
• NYC FC is a commercial business that needs to buy low & sell high to have a chance of making it in the Big Apple. Want a "world class" sports facility in NYC? Ask Ratner and the Nets, it costs $1 billion and decades of lobbying. So let's say they did sell Lampard for a few million dollars profit, whether that's a mistake of not in the short-term, it's a drop in the bucket for what they need to build long term to succeed.
  
  
• MLS is a 3rd-tier league (yes, 3rd) and while improving, will remain that way for some period of time.

Being an "investor" in NYC FC over the long run is where I net out. I'm not rushing to buy season tickets at Yankee Stadium, but I've got some gear and will be watching the games, learning the players and seeing how things go. I don't expect NYC FC will fundamentally change MLS, this league is what it is -- 3rd tier.

I'm fine with their decision on Lampard because it's just one minor footnote in a 10-20 year journey. It may turn out to be a mistake or it could be genius to buy a 36 year old low and sell him high. That's a technical question for the football experts, but I'm confident that my interest in NYC FC will continue unchanged but it'll always be realistic. When the team shows that it can be a winner, I'll invest a little more. If the new stadium gets built, I'll buy season tickets. In the meantime, you could call me a casual fan but I'd just say that I'm being realistic.

Volante

 

[XIValentin]

well said sir

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Tldr

 

[MrE]

I'm not angry at all about Lampard's extension because I share a fundamentally different set of assumptions about what NYC FC is.

Let me describe two different sets of assumptions at play here: those of the speculator and those of the investor. I believe the speculator attitude which spawns this anger with Lampard is likely to lead to frustration on other issues too so if you find yourself with it, this attitude might be worth questioning now.

The "Speculator" Perspective
====================

The speculator operates with the key assumption that they're invested in a rising star that can only be an exceptional investment not in 5 or 10 years, but starting right now.

Key pillars of this belief system include:

• NYC is a world-class city, which only merits world-class teams (i.e. Yankees) with world-class players (e.g. Lampard)
  
  
• NYC FC as a "football club" must have a special relationship with fans and community in this world-class city.
  
  
• With a world-class team in a world-class city, NYC FC will propel the league of MLS to world-class heights.

Most likely, these beliefs drove a lot of the members of this forum to plunk down for season tickets for a team that didn't even exist, playing in a baseball park within a league with a $3 million salary cap.

The "Investor" Perspective
==================

The investor sees NYC FC as a start-up in the world's most competitive sport. If they make enough good moves and have a lot of luck, they could be a great investment in 5 or 10 years but most likely they're going to have to prove themselves out over time paying little dividends of entertainment along the way.

Key pillars of this belief system include:

• NYC is a world-class city, but that's rarely meant we have world-class teams. In an era of salary caps and parity, money can't buy success in US sport. Most of NYC's teams are regular losers -- that doesn't mean they're not interesting to support.
  
  
• NYC FC is a commercial business that needs to buy low & sell high to have a chance of making it in the Big Apple. Want a "world class" sports facility in NYC? Ask Ratner and the Nets, it costs $1 billion and decades of lobbying. So let's say they did sell Lampard for a few million dollars profit, whether that's a mistake of not in the short-term, it's a drop in the bucket for what they need to build long term to succeed.
  
• MLS is a 3rd-tier league (yes, 3rd) and while improving, will remain that way for some period of time.

Being an "investor" in NYC FC over the long run is where I net out. I'm not rushing to buy season tickets at Yankee Stadium, but I've got some gear and will be watching the games, learning the players and seeing how things go. I don't expect NYC FC will fundamentally change MLS, this league is what it is -- 3rd tier.

I'm fine with their decision on Lampard because it's just one minor footnote in a 10-20 year journey. It may turn out to be a mistake or it could be genius to be a 36 year old low and sell high. That's a technical question for the football experts, but I'm confident that my interest in NYC FC will continue unchanged but it'll always be realistic. When the team shows that it can be a winner, I'll invest a little more. If the new stadium gets built, I'll buy season tickets. In the meantime, you could call me a casual fan but I'd just say that I'm being realistic.

Volante

This is probably the best post on the whole forum.

 

[BxLio91]

That's a great post, however most of us are upset at being misled and lied to.

 

[NYCFCFan10]

They didn't sell Lampard, though.

In fact, Lampard was never linked to NYCFC, dressing him up and presenting him as an NYCFC player and the billboards were literally just a scam to get casual fans to buy tickets.

The rest is your opinion

 

[Volante]

TL;DR version

We are all NYC FC supporters, but those who are angry are acting more like speculators than investors. Building anything in NYC is challenging and requires long-term business management and tolerance of ups and downs. 20 yrs from now, Frank Lampard will have had little impact on whether whether NYC FC succeeds with fans, gets its stadium built and improves the world standing of MLS.

Alternative TL;DR courtesy of Jose Mourinho reacting to Lampard today:
"NYC can bring any player they want. They can find another good player to replace Lampard and nothing can stop them."

 

[BxLio91]

Sorry my faith in ownership isn't too high right now. We'll get Scott Sinclair at best, maybe some other scrub who City are trying to get rid of or some of the lower end academy kids whom the staff don't see anything valuable in. Or keeping with recent CFG actions, we'll be told to do one.

 

[Slick Rick]

They didn't sell Lampard, though.

In fact, Lampard was never linked to NYCFC, dressing him up and presenting him as an NYCFC player and the billboards were literally just a scam to get casual fans to buy tickets.

Correct. This is the crux of many fans frustrations. I wish the "get over it" crowd would understand this simple concept.

 

[FredMertz]

So much flawed logic and hard-to-follow, pseudo-intellectual thought processes.

I can tell you put a lot of thought into writing this, but as they say, quantity rarely wins out over quality.

Most people on this board don't fit into either category. They just want a local top-flight team to root for and to know the club has structural integrity -- that it sits at the top of it's own food chain like every other MLS team does. We all know where MLS sits in the global hierarchy of soccer and we don't much think about NYCFC's inability to change that.

You aren't an "investor" because, by your own admission, you have not purchased tickets. Nor are you a speculator. You are merely a spectator.

Explain how the team "bought low and sold high" in this situation. They neither bought nor sold Lampard.

Lampard showing up or not showing up may well indeed ultimately be a footnote to the history of the club, but it is probably naive to believe that CFC is taking advantage of NYCFC on a one-time basis. As of right now, they've taken advantage of the club 100% of the times it has suited them to do so.

NYCFC consistently serving the needs of the MCFC would not be a footnote in the team's history -- it would be the headline in the story of the franchise's ultimate demise.

Quote of the post: When the team shows that it can be a winner, I'll invest a little more.

I think there's a phrase to describe fans like you: "Not actually fans".

 

[Volante]

I think you've summed up the investor vs. speculator mentality in your post pretty well.

As you said, logic and "thought processes" are the hallmark of my own investor approach to NYC FC. Core to investing, as opposed to speculating, is tempered expectations and that's not as you say very compatible with being a fanatical fan.

However, it doesn't seem like your fandom really has much of a foundation. You don't like the front office, you despise the ownership group that put down the $100 million to bring a team here. You went "all in" on your speculative investment and now you're hoping to dump your stock -- perhaps the next step will be to write and ask for your money back.

At the end of the day, there is a "get over it" crowd here that care enough about NYC FC to read this forum and will absolutely refuse to be called "mere spectators" but are also realistic enough to know there's not a lot to be fanatical about wrt. NYC FC at the moment. There's not a team, there's not a stadium, there's not even a "system" for Frank to learn (sorry, but Jason Kreis is not the second coming of Johan Cryuff).

I can agree with your point on what's happening short-term -- MCFC's needs are being met at the expense of NYC -- but I disagree with the hyperbolic extrapolation from a single event to the "doom" of the franchise. NYC FC could very well take the money/favor/whatever from Frank and pick up a much better young player. But if it's not, that's OK because my expectations are very tempered and I'm in it for the long run. With regards to the short run, I'll make some judgements at the end of the first season which I'm very much looking forward to!

Volante