Stadium Discussion

[Lasker]

I basically agree with your thinking, Gator, but haven't most teams experienced a drop in attendance after their first year?

My suspicion is that the team's record and players are smaller factors than one might expect, and that stadium location, overall interest in soccer, and interest in MLS in particular are the biggest factors driving attendance.

In the long term all of those work in our favor, (well, maybe n0t the stadium locatuon part but I'm keeping my fingers crossed) but in the near term, even with the addition of big name DPs, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see attendance reach this year's level until 2019, after Mix leads the USMNT to their first ever world cup semi-final appearance in Russia.

After that, of course, the sky is the limit.

 

[Kjbert]

1) If you take out the historic first home opener, we are averaging more like 22,500 I think. Great number, but not sustainable next year if we continue to play like this.
2) I think you will see a high % of people not renew their season tickets next year. I will re-up and might get one or two more seats, but from judging the attendance rate of the season ticket holders around me, only 2 of the 10 season ticket holders that sit around me are there constantly. The other 8 have been about 50/50.

 

[Lasker]

Two more data points:

MLS as a league averaged attendance of 17000 in 1996. It was 15 years before they reached this number again.

The Red Bulls have never matched the average attendance of their opening season.

So while there isn't any doubt that the MLS is healthier now than it was in the 90s or early 2000s we shouldn't be overconfident.

 

[Buckley]

the blue ladies hosted an event over the weekend where jeb was in attendance and he was very open and said that "the team is not expecting a stadium any time soon" sigh.

 

[Kjbert]

the blue ladies hosted an event over the weekend where jeb was in attendance and he was very open and said that "the team is not expecting a stadium any time soon" sigh.

did anyone ask him his opinion on Pirlo, though?

 

[doctorhoosier]

My suspicion is that the team's record and players are smaller factors than one might expect, and that stadium location, overall interest in soccer, and interest in MLS in particular are the biggest factors driving attendance.

There's a cool book called Scorecasting that tries to explain what the drivers behind attendance are.

For 99% of clubs, regardless of sport, the biggest predictor of attendance is winning percentage. It certainly doesn't explain *all* variation among percentages for clubs, but teams with high winning percentages tend to have higher attendances. Whether that's more a function of big city dominance in professional sports is another matter entirely.

The 1% of clubs that *aren't* most influenced by win percentage is actually the Chicago Cubs, who are more influenced by beer prices than winning percentage. (That's not a joke.)

 

[doctorhoosier]

1) If you take out the historic first home opener, we are averaging more like 22,500 I think. Great number, but not sustainable next year if we continue to play like this.
2) I think you will see a high % of people not renew their season tickets next year. I will re-up and might get one or two more seats, but from judging the attendance rate of the season ticket holders around me, only 2 of the 10 season ticket holders that sit around me are there constantly. The other 8 have been about 50/50.

As the weather gets better, I think you'll continue to see good crowds. I know I've missed a game or two, and weather was, if I'm being totally honest, a factor.

 

[LionNYC]

So what's the over/under on a year for an announcement that we have a location for a stadium and it's a 100% go: 2020? 2022?

 

[Lasker]

There's a cool book called Scorecasting that tries to explain what the drivers behind attendance are.

For 99% of clubs, regardless of sport, the biggest predictor of attendance is winning percentage. It certainly doesn't explain *all* variation among percentages for clubs, but teams with high winning percentages tend to have higher attendances. Whether that's more a function of big city dominance in professional sports is another matter entirely.

The 1% of clubs that *aren't* most influenced by win percentage is actually the Chicago Cubs, who are more influenced by beer prices than winning percentage. (That's not a joke.)

Sounds like a book I would enjoy. But I still wouldn't be surprised if the MLS is a different animal. For example, league wide attendance jumped over 5% in 2007 and 2011, the years immediately following the World Cup. That is an effect with no analogy in other American sports.

 

[Kjbert]

As the weather gets better, I think you'll continue to see good crowds. I know I've missed a game or two, and weather was, if I'm being totally honest, a factor.

Eh, maybe? In New York, you have people who go out East when the weather is nicer. Maybe you're right, but I don't think it's a slam dunk like it might be in Chicago or Boston. Have to remember that soccer is a cold weather sport around the world.

 

[Fabio]

Eventually we're going to hit a point in the life of MLS and NYCFC where we're going to need a MetLife Stadium for our games.

Never Never and never in NJ !!!!! We are NYCFC.

 

[CP_Scouse]

AS the summer grows, the clubs youth and adolsecent market will grow as well, no school. The club would be STUPID if they didnt post more pics of the supporter section towards mid june to advertise for games

 

[Kjbert]

AS the summer grows, the clubs youth and adolsecent market will grow as well, no school. The club would be STUPID if they didnt post more pics of the supporter section towards mid june to advertise for games

Why? More people bought season tickets away from the SS than they did in it.

 

[CP_Scouse]

Why? More people bought season tickets away from the SS than they did in it.

the SS is bigger than just the bleachers, its 2331 233b, 234, Bleachers, and the sections below it.
The youth (14-26) dont wanna sit and watch like evryone else. They want to stand and cheer

 

[LionNYC]

Never Never and never in NJ !!!!! We are NYCFC.

I was referring to the size of the stadium not the fact that it's in New Jersey. Never New Jersey.

 

[Kjbert]

the SS is bigger than just the bleachers, its 2331 233b, 234, Bleachers, and the sections below it.
The youth (14-26) dont wanna sit and watch like evryone else. They want to stand and cheer

You have absolutely no data to back them up. I bring my 13 year old brother in law and he has no interest jn sitting there. Doesn't mean other 13 year olds feel differently. But your claim is baseless.

 

[CP_Scouse]

You have absolutely no data to back them up. I bring my 13 year old brother in law and he has no interest jn sitting there. Doesn't mean other 13 year olds feel differently. But your claim is baseless.

i understand my market well

 

[Ahab_Flanders]

You have absolutely no data to back them up. I bring my 13 year old brother in law and he has no interest jn sitting there. Doesn't mean other 13 year olds feel differently. But your claim is baseless.

i understand my market well

Don't you know that Scouse is the voice of a generation?

 

[northernburbs]

the SS is bigger than just the bleachers, its 2331 233b, 234, Bleachers, and the sections below it.
The youth (14-26) dont wanna sit and watch like evryone else. They want to stand and cheer

Word CP_scouse 229 I consider myself and my family supporters. when the chants start and we can make them out we join in.
We need Capos for the Suporters section that hold up some kind of signal to the rest of the fans to let them know the chant. FUCK the haters that call us plastic or whatever. We are a new team and need to try shit out till we get our chants down

 

[Kjbert]

Word CP_scouse 229 I consider myself and my family supporters. when the chants start and we can make them out we join in.
We need Capos for the Suporters section that hold up some kind of signal to the rest of the fans to let them know the chant. FUCK the haters that call us plastic or whatever. We are a new team and need to try shit out till we get our chants down

I like the ideas of Capos