USMNT Talk

[Schwallacus]

I have seen a couple of analyses showing that the US has an extremely longshot chance to end up in Pot 1 for the World Cup draw, but I'm only interested in how the US is somehow behind Mexico in the rankings. We won the Gold Cup and beat them head to head. We won Nations Cup (or League or whatever) and beat them H2H. We have the exact same record in qualifying, against the same competition, but we also have a better goal differential and our record against Mexico is 1 Win 1 draw. Does anyone know why we are behind? None of the pieces I read explain that part.
I have 2 theories: First, we were so far behind pre-2021 we still have not caught up. I know this is why Canada is pretty far behind both despite being on top of WCQ. But I don't think we were that far behind and beating a team in 3 straight competitions would seem to overcome that eventually. Second possibility, that we have the same record but beat Mexico H2H means we also have 1 extra loss against some other CONCACAF team, and that somehow counts for more than everything else. Does anyone know what the answer is? I'm not insinuating anything biased or foul play. It just seems odd.

The rankings still pull from 2-3 years ago, so Mexico is probably relying on that vs. the US. Per Goal.com (LINK);

"A team's total number of points is calculated by adding the average number of points gained during matches in the last 12 months to the average number of points gained from games older than 12 months (which depreciates year-on-year). So at its most basic, FIFA ranking is determined by the following: 12 month average + previous 36 month average."​

2019 and 202 are weighing us down slightly, but I presume that will change later this year/early next where our more recent successes will hold more weight and our meh results from the start of the GGG reign won't weigh us down as much or at all. Mexico remained consistent in that time, so they don't have that presumed "dead weight" that we do.

In all, it's BS how results from 2-3 years ago still affect your world ranking. Also the reason why Belgium is the #1 team when they've never won anything of importance. Wins in friendly games hold weight too, so teams that face similar/stronger opponents and lose/tie don't look as good as teams that beat inferior opponents regularly.

EDIT: Added actual link to goal.com article.

 

[mgarbowski]

Shaq Moore was solid. No doubt about it.

And I understand being against the move in advance. But I like seeing guys step up and exceed negative expectations.

 

[mgarbowski]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508242442365120519

Interesting. Nobody seems to know for certain if yellow card accumulation carries over into the play-in against Oceania, but this CRC fan account assumes it does. The Ticos have multiple players sitting one yellow away from suspension. If I follow correctly, it's 9 total and 4 starters (plus Mata is out). Speculation is that their coach will decide it is more important to save at least some of those players for a nearly inevitable all-or-nothing playoff game rather than the very longshot chance of overcoming either the US or Mexico on goal differential.

One of the replies points out, fairly I think , that at 14 games CONCACAF qualifying final round is more than most confederations (all but conmebol I think) so they should get an extra yellow before suspension. But it is what it is.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Yes, the yellow card suspension would carry over to the intercontinental game (but not the World Cup itself). Brian Sciaretta tweeted out a link and snapshot of the rule. It was interesting to note this is a FIFA rule - not Concacaf - and the same is true of the rule that two yellows in the competition leads to a suspension.

 

[mgarbowski]

Yes, the yellow card suspension would carry over to the intercontinental game (but not the World Cup itself). Brian Sciaretta tweeted out a link and snapshot of the rule. It was interesting to note this is a FIFA rule - not Concacaf - and the same is true of the rule that two yellows in the competition leads to a suspension.

It would be a very typical soccer/CONCACF thing if they do rest several players, and then their B team comes out and makes everything much more scary than it should be. Sort of like the Union B team did against NYCFC, except the Union were effective by playing back, tight and defensive while CRC will need to just buzz like lunatics with nothing to lose. Which they probably will do no matter who plays and we'll have to match the intensity.

 

[LionNYC]

It would be a very typical soccer/CONCACF thing if they do rest several players, and then their B team comes out and makes everything much more scary than it should be. Sort of like the Union B team did against NYCFC, except the Union were effective by playing back, tight and defensive while CRC will need to just buzz like lunatics with nothing to lose. Which they probably will do no matter who plays and we'll have to match the intensity.

I don't think that Union B team could put up 6-0 against NYCFC (less Keaton and Anton)

That being said, I'll still be nervous until the 80' minute or so of CRC-USA

 

[Gotham Gator]

I read that the USA could actually lose 6-0 and still automatically qualify if Mexico also loses its game, and I am almost rooting for this to happen.

 

[Shwafta]

I read that the USA could actually lose 6-0 and still automatically qualify if Mexico also loses its game, and I am almost rooting for this to happen.

We don't need to lose 6-0 for that to happen.

the GD between mexico and costa rica just has to be > 4. If Costa Rica win by 3 and Mexico loses by 2, Costa Rica will be on +6 and mexico on +5.

However you have to think that regardless of which concacaf team makes it to the OFC playoffs that they'll beat NZ.

 

[moogoo]

We don't need to lose 6-0 for that to happen.

the GD between mexico and costa rica just has to be > 4. If Costa Rica win by 3 and Mexico loses by 2, Costa Rica will be on +6 and mexico on +5.

However you have to think that regardless of which concacaf team makes it to the OFC playoffs that they'll beat NZ.

I'm sure Italy thought it would beat north Macedonia too. Or that we would beat Trinidad and Tobago in 2018.

This would be wild if Mexico didn't qualify hahah.. I want it to happen now

 

[mgarbowski]

If we could just lose without risk and jerk over someone else I'd be all for it, like when Mexico and Costa Rica risk-free lost in 2018 and pushed Panama and Honduras ahead of us. Not saying it was on purpose but eff them anyway, and eff Canada for losing to Costa Rica last week, by the way. But the lose enough to screw Mexico but not by too much game, I don't even want to think about it.

 

[SoupInNYC]

We don't need to lose 6-0 for that to happen.

the GD between mexico and costa rica just has to be > 4. If Costa Rica win by 3 and Mexico loses by 2, Costa Rica will be on +6 and mexico on +5.

However you have to think that regardless of which concacaf team makes it to the OFC playoffs that they'll beat NZ.

I was working in Mexico City in 2013-2014 during the World Cup Qualifying then when Mexico didn't qualify out of the Hex and went into the playoff against New Zealand to qualify. Many of the Mexicans that I was working with at the time had the mindset that they didn't want Mexico to qualify as they were playing so bad and didn't want them to embarrass them any further at the World Cup. (I should add that this is very anecdotal and likely doesn't represent the overall Mexican fan base sentiment, or perhaps hard core fans.)

They went on to qualify getting past NZ, then got out of the group stage with 7 points (drawing against host Brazil) and then got screwed against Netherlands in the knockout stage. Overall had a great WC final.

 

[Gotham Gator]

We don't need to lose 6-0 for that to happen.

the GD between mexico and costa rica just has to be > 4. If Costa Rica win by 3 and Mexico loses by 2, Costa Rica will be on +6 and mexico on +5.

However you have to think that regardless of which concacaf team makes it to the OFC playoffs that they'll beat NZ.

We don't need to lose 6-0 for Mexico to end up in 4th, that's true. The point is this - everyone rightly points out that if we lose by 5 or fewer, we advance. But, there is also a way we can lose by 6 (or even more) and still advance.

And I love the scenario not because it would screw over Mexico, but because of the drama and bottom line absurdity of it.

 

[Shwafta]

We don't need to lose 6-0 for Mexico to end up in 4th, that's true. The point is this - everyone rightly points out that if we lose by 5 or fewer, we advance. But, there is also a way we can lose by 6 (or even more) and still advance.

And I love the scenario not because it would screw over Mexico, but because of the drama and bottom line absurdity of it.

I was trying to avoid that though. I hate that. LOL

 

[mgarbowski]

And I love the scenario not because it would screw over Mexico, but because of the drama and bottom line absurdity of it.

I was trying to avoid that though. I hate that. LOL

I'm with Shwafta. I want to score 3 goals in the first 20 minutes and go to bed.

 

[Sabo]

If we could just lose without risk and jerk over someone else I'd be all for it, like when Mexico and Costa Rica risk-free lost in 2018 and pushed Panama and Honduras ahead of us. Not saying it was on purpose but eff them anyway, and eff Canada for losing to Costa Rica last week, by the way. But the lose enough to screw Mexico but not by too much game, I don't even want to think about it.

Casey Keller pointed out last night that if the USMNT didnt show up for the game we would lose 3-0 by forfeit and automatically advance to the WC

 

[mgarbowski]

Casey Keller pointed out last night that if the USMNT didnt show up for the game we would lose 3-0 by forfeit and automatically advance to the WC

Wouldn't be a shame if the team all got false positive covid tests.
Just sayin'

I think Doyle pointed that out on twitter about 2 minutes after the game ended Sunday night

 

[Sabo]

Wouldn't be a shame if the team all got false positive covid tests.
Just sayin'

I think Doyle pointed that out on twitter about 2 minutes after the game ended Sunday night

Last time I give Keller credit for anything ....

 

[Shwafta]

For the sake of sporting merit we would never forfeit like that. And secondly, it would cause such a huge farce that it would cause teams to re-think how qualifying works.

Are there no fail-safes in place like "a team may not forfeit a game in order to qualify / once already qualified unless for a valid reason approved by CONCACAF/FIFA, otherwise they will be disqualified"?

 

[mgarbowski]

For the sake of sporting merit we would never forfeit like that. And secondly, it would cause such a huge farce that it would cause teams to re-think how qualifying works.

Are there no fail-safes in place like "a team may not forfeit a game in order to qualify / once already qualified unless for a valid reason approved by CONCACAF/FIFA, otherwise they will be disqualified"?

"4. Any match which is not played or which is abandoned – except in cases of force majeure recognised by FIFA – may lead to the imposition of sanctions against the relevant associations by the FIFA Disciplinary Committee in accordance with the FIFA Disciplinary Code. In such cases, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee may also order that the match be replayed.
5. Any association that withdraws or whose behaviour is liable for a match not being played or being abandoned may be ordered by FIFA to reimburse FIFA, the host association or any other participating member association for any expenses incurred as a result of its behaviour. In such cases, the association concerned may also be ordered by FIFA to pay compensation for any damages incurred by FIFA, the host association or any other participating member association. The association in question will also forfeit any claim to financial remuneration from FIFA. "
Fifa World Cup 2022 rules:

https://assets.the-afc.com/migration/f/i/fifa-world-cup-2022-preliminary-competition-regulations

Credit r/ussoccer .

 

[413Blue]

For the sake of sporting merit we would never forfeit like that. And secondly, it would cause such a huge farce that it would cause teams to re-think how qualifying works.

Are there no fail-safes in place like "a team may not forfeit a game in order to qualify / once already qualified unless for a valid reason approved by CONCACAF/FIFA, otherwise they will be disqualified"?

I'm sure there is language permitting Concacaf to make this not worthwhile for anyone to attempt. Remember, the team that had to back out of CCL against the Revs got penalized, and that was because of an administrative error that im sure the club regretted anyway, not a deliberate attempt to skirt the integrity of the game.

Edit: of course mark beat me with the actual language!