2019 By The Numbers: There's A City In My Mind, Come Along

[Gotham Gator]

Let's look at potential playoff opponents.

Under the current standings, it's very likely that NYC, Philly and Atlanta will finish in the top 3 (in some order). Also, it seems likely that DC and Toronto will battle each other for spots 4 and 5. Finally, New England and New Jersey should end up in the 6/7 positions, with a small chance that someone pips one of them in the end.

1-3: NYC, PHI, ATL
4-5: TOR, DCU
6-7: RBNJ, NER

If we end up in first place (78% chance according to 538), we will have the first week off and then host the winner of Toronto and DC United.

If we end up in second or third (16% chance and 6% chance), we will host either New Jersey or New England in the first round and then face off against either Atlanta or Philly (most likely) in the second round.

 

[mgarbowski]

I don't remember where we had the discussion about that stupid tweet criticizing NYCFC's road record against playoff teams so I'll put this here with more points on why that's such a stupid metric:

• Because LAG won a home game this week, they are back above the line and NYC now has 2 road wins against playoff teams when they had only 1 last week.
• If we lose to Dallas next week they probably jump above the line and we get saddled with another loss under this metric; but if we beat Dallas they get pushed further back and probably stay there which means getting no credit for a road win against a team with just 1 other home loss.

This is not a worthwhile measuring tool.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I don't remember where we had the discussion about that stupid tweet criticizing NYCFC's road record against playoff teams so I'll put this here with more points on why that's such a stupid metric:

• Because LAG won a home game this week, they are back above the line and NYC now has 2 road wins against playoff teams when they ad only 1 last week.
• If we lose to Dallas next week they probably jump above the line and we get saddled with another loss under this metric; but if we beat Dallas they get pushed further back and probably stay there which means getting no credit for a road win against a team with just 1 other home loss.

This is not a worthwhile measuring tool.

Atlanta fans are getting really chippy about NYC right now. There is that ridiculous tweet you referred to. There is all the back and forth I am having with a host of Atlanta fans on Twitter and on the MLS site about our pitch.

It's really strange. They are the defending champions. They play beautiful soccer. They have a fan base every team envies.

Why do they seem to have this massive inferiority complex about NYC?

 

[canchon]

On the playoff format, is there re-seeding after the first round? Example - will the first place team play the winner of 4/5 or will the first place team play the lowest remaining seed after the first round?

 

[Sabo]

On the playoff format, is there re-seeding after the first round? Example - will the first place team play the winner of 4/5 or will the first place team play the lowest remaining seed after the first round?

There is no reseeding after the first round any more. If we are the 1 seed and the 4, 6 and 7 seeds win, we still play the 4 seed.

 

[mgarbowski]

On the playoff format, is there re-seeding after the first round? Example - will the first place team play the winner of 4/5 or will the first place team play the lowest remaining seed after the first round?

No reseeding. 1 plays 4/5, even if 7 beats 2.

 

[Sabo]

No reseeding. 1 plays 4/5, even if 7 beats 2.

Jinx

 

[NYCFC_Dan]

Not getting hopes up on LAFC falling apart, but their remaining schedule is no cakewalk and could make them sweat a bit:
TOR - the Bradley Derby with Toronto fighting for playoff position
Houston - probably 3pts
@MIN - could be an interesting tilt
COL - probably 3pts but have shown to be able to step up at times to win matches they shouldn’t.

Looking back at how we started the season makes you wonder where we would be if we had Heber from the start.

 

[mgarbowski]

Looking back at how we started the season makes you wonder where we would be if we had Heber from the start.

Seems we spent a lot of time chasing GMS before the Heber rumors started. At least that's how I remember it. Of course, for all we know the Heber pursuit was running concurrently even if publicly Heber was mentioned later, but I can't help wonder who decided the priority: Torrent or Reyna?

 

[mgarbowski]

Coffee's For Closers
On August 19 I wrote, “NYCFC probably needs 15+ points (OK maybe 13 or 14 if other things go well but that’s pushing it) from these 6 games to have a shot at finishing first as it heads into the final 4 games, which include hosting Atlanta, and Away to Dallas, New England and Philadelphia.” NYCFC earned 16, and is now in a very strong position. NYC also won the previous game in Cincinnati, for 19 points out of 21 in a seven game stretch of easy matchups. That’s good work, but there is still work to be done.

It is a reasonable goal to clinch the East before Decision Day and in doing so make the game Away to Philadelphia meaningless to NYCFC and its place in the standings. The keystone is the game against Atlanta the middle of next week. Beat Atlanta at home, and the remaining Magic Number is 1 for Atlanta. Add any additional result: an Atlanta draw or loss or NYCFC win or draw and NYCFC finishes ahead of the Five Stripes. It is possible such a result could happen even before the Atlanta game. Atlanta is away to Cincinnati Wednesday, host San Jose next weekend, NYC midweek next week, then at Montreal the following weekend, before hosting New England on Decision Day. Chances are Atlanta drops one more point, or NYC picks up one more somewhere.

The hypothetically assumed win over Atlanta would also lower the Magic Number against the Union to 5. Before Decision Day, the Union is away to Red Bulls, San Jose and Columbus. They could very well drop 5 points in those games (going 1-1-1 would do it), which would not even require any other results from NYCFC besides Atlanta, though at this point almost no result can be a surprise. Who could foresee Atlanta winning in Portland but falling to Columbus at home? IF NYC can win 1 other game, either at Dallas or New England, then it would just require 1 Philly draw to clinch.

Failing to beat Atlanta requires a lot of other things to go right.

Besides Atlanta and Philadelphia, NYC plays away to Dallas next weekend and to the Revs in between AT: and PHI. Dallas has lost only 1 home game all year and has 5 home draws. The Revs have 5 home losses, but 4 predate Arena taking over and the other was against LAFC. NYCFC can win either but these are tough road games.


Atlanta only has 29 GP so here is the Points at 29 chart:

NYC has set a new highest Goal Differential (19). The previous high of 18 was after 23 games in 2018 (and last week). 2019 has also matched the highest Point Total set in 2017, with 4 games remaining.

Every remaining possibility:

Magic Numbers:
PHI 8, ATL 7.
West: RSL, POR, and SEA 5, MIN 4, LAG 1
LAFC: 20 (their number for NYC is 6)

Finally, when Maxi and Héber both play, NYC has only 1 loss. When neither plays (which is fortunately much rarer), NYCFC has 1 win.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Looking at some different numbers. I've been checking a few statistical odds & ends.

• We have committed the most fouls in the league as a team (414) - well ahead of 2nd place Portland (396).
• Maxi Moralez is the 6th most fouled player in the league (64), but he has also committed the 12th most fouls in the league (43).
• Ring is 2nd in the league in fouls committed (63) and tied for second for yellow cards (10). Bryan Acosta of our next opponent, Dallas, is first with 11.
• As a team, we are first in Yellow Cards with 67; our next opponent, Dallas, is 3rd with 64.
• We and Sporting KC are the only team to have missed 3 penalties on the season. We are 5-8, and they are 6-9. Atlanta and LAFC are the only other teams to have attempted 9.
• LAFC lead in shots on goal with 210; San Jose is second with 185; we are third with 175.
• Heber remains 5th in goals scored with 14, and Maxi remains first in assists with 18.
• We are second in the league in possession (55.4), behind only San Jose (56.0).

 

[LionNYC]

Looking at some different numbers. I've been checking a few statistical odds & ends.

• We have committed the most fouls in the league as a team (414) - well ahead of 2nd place Portland (396).
• Maxi Moralez is the 6th most fouled player in the league (64), but he has also committed the 12th most fouls in the league (43).
• Ring is 2nd in the league in fouls committed (63) and tied for second for yellow cards (10). Bryan Acosta of our next opponent, Dallas, is first with 11.
• As a team, we are first in Yellow Cards with 67; our next opponent, Dallas, is 3rd with 64.
• We and Sporting KC are the only team to have missed 3 penalties on the season. We are 5-8, and they are 6-9. Atlanta and LAFC are the only other teams to have attempted 9.
• LAFC lead in shots on goal with 210; San Jose is second with 185; we are third with 175.
• Heber remains 5th in goals scored with 14, and Maxi remains first in assists with 18.
• We are second in the league in possession (55.4), behind only San Jose (56.0).

The high number of fouls is very City under Pep. You foul when you lose the ball to prevent the team from transitioning up the field as you're out of position.

That being said a lot of our fouls and yellow cards are because of shit PRO does during games.

 

[moogoo]

The high number of fouls is very City under Pep. You foul when you lose the ball to prevent the team from transitioning up the field as you're out of position.

That being said a lot of our fouls and yellow cards are because of shit PRO does during games.

we also commit a lot of unnecessary fouls in dangerous positions like when the attacker is stuck in the corner. i kinda think we don't make enough smart fouls in the open field. i wish we'd be a bit smarter about it to prevent the yellow too.

 

[Shwafta]

The high number of fouls is very City under Pep. You foul when you lose the ball to prevent the team from transitioning up the field as you're out of position.

That being said a lot of our fouls and yellow cards are because of shit PRO does during games.

Yeah but the rest of the league also deals with the PRO shit, so you can't factor that in

 

[Christopher Jee]

Yeah but the rest of the league also deals with the PRO shit, so you can't factor that in

Yeah but that assumes that PRO is uniformly bad across all kinds of calls and situations. Whereas I've noticed that PRO is particularly bad when it comes to players shielding the ball and getting fouled (I.e. undercalling fouls on Maxi), as an example.

I can't back this up with data, but generally I think PRO refereeing has been slow to catch on to more technical, less physical play.

 

[mgarbowski]

Bring It On Home To Me

Short and simple this week. The magic number for Atlanta is 6 and Philadelphia is 4. Beat Atlanta on Wednesday and they are done, while the number for Philadelphia is no worse than 1. A draw with Atlanta is not necessarily catastrophic, but the path to first place would be very muddied at best. Let’s not discuss a loss. On the upside, NYCFC can clinch first place on Wednesday. On the same night that Atlanta and NYCFC go at it, The Union play San Jose on short rest after a cross country flight. It’s a shame that the Quakes will be without their top scorer (Wondolowski) and assist generator (Espinoza).


All the possibilities.

NYCFC has clinched finishing ahead of everyone in the West except LAFC (their Magic Number for NYCFC is 3) and Minnesota, for whom NYCFC’s magic number is 1. NYCFC finished the season 7-2-3 against the West for exactly 2.00 PPG.

NYCFC has achieved it’s best point total in its 5 year history at 58, and has clinched having the fewest losses in team history. No matter what the team will have no more than 8 losses. The previous low was 9 in 2017.


Since and including June 29, when NYCFC hosted Philadelphia, the Pigeons are 6-2-0 when the other team scores first (2.25 PPG) , and just 5-2-2 when NYCFC scores first (1.89 PPG). Go figure.

 

[adam]

Bring It On Home To Me

Short and simple this week. The magic number for Atlanta is 6 and Philadelphia is 4. Beat Atlanta on Wednesday and they are done, while the number for Philadelphia is no worse than 1. A draw with Atlanta is not necessarily catastrophic, but the path to first place would be very muddied at best. Let’s not discuss a loss. On the upside, NYCFC can clinch first place on Wednesday. On the same night that Atlanta and NYCFC go at it, The Union play San Jose on short rest after a cross country flight. It’s a shame that the Quakes will be without their top scorer (Wondolowski) and assist generator (Espinoza).
View attachment 10275View attachment 10281
View attachment 10277
All the possibilities.
View attachment 10278
NYCFC has clinched finishing ahead of everyone in the West except LAFC (their Magic Number for NYCFC is 3) and Minnesota, for whom NYCFC’s magic number is 1. NYCFC finished the season 7-2-3 against the West for exactly 2.00 PPG.
View attachment 10280
NYCFC has achieved it’s best point total in its 5 year history at 58, and has clinched having the fewest losses in team history. No matter what the team will have no more than 8 losses. The previous low was 9 in 2017.
View attachment 10279

Since and including June 29, when NYCFC hosted Philadelphia, the Pigeons are 6-2-0 when the other team scores first (2.25 PPG) , and just 5-2-2 when NYCFC scores first (1.89 PPG). Go figure.

And you finally raised the bar on the total points chart. Thank you

 

[mgarbowski]

And you finally raised the bar on the total points chart. Thank you

The funny thing is Excel does that on its own. I don't affect it at all. [There might be a way for me to tweak it but I'm not concerned enough to look it up]. And it just pushed the top line to 70 this week when it's impossible for us to reach 70. But I guess you need the 70 line to show scale for the 60+ possibilities.

 

[FredMertz]

Not sure that this fits perfectly here, but I liked it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1177241523617980416

 

[mgarbowski]