So what you're saying is Yankee stadium is our Kryptonite and if any team watched what happened today they also know how to destroy us at home? Crap.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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I would never have believed we could lose the Derby 7-0. It is inconceivable that we could lose like that a third of the way through the season and still be in 2nd place in the East.
Brazil doesn't suck despite losing an infinitely bigger game to Germany 7-0.
Dallas losing to Houston 5-0 earlier this year did not destroy their season. Houston is really awful.
Top 4 in the East and a home playoff game is a realistic goal for this season.
As long as we play like we did the last 75 minutes in the March game against the Simbas we are going to get the 3 points and be in 2nd at the end of next week too.
Brazil doesn't suck despite losing an infinitely bigger game to Germany 7-0.
Dallas losing to Houston 5-0 earlier this year did not destroy their season. Houston is really awful.
Top 4 in the East and a home playoff game is a realistic goal for this season.
As long as we play like we did the last 75 minutes in the March game against the Simbas we are going to get the 3 points and be in 2nd at the end of next week too.
It seems I haven't put up the PPG chart in a bit. I think I didn't do it when we were in regular first place because we were never quite in PPG first place and I was hoping we'd make it after the next game. Well, after 1 point in our last 2 games, which is not good but not disastrous, we are back where we were the last time I did put up the chart: 4th place. That was after the DC win. Since then we had the great Portland win, the Toronto tie with our B-team, and the fiasco against RB. And almost nothing changed:
Philly in first, NYC in 4th. Orlando 5. RB 6. DCU 7. All the same.
The Canadian teams flipped 2 and 3, and 8-10 squiggled a bit but who cares.
So again. after the most momentous week in team history. After the biggest high and lowest low we are pretty much in the same place, which is pretty good but not great.
Plus I can't believe nobody said this yet, but how weird, amazing, glorious, and hideous is it that we had what was likely NYCFC's best win ever and certainly it's worst loss in the same damn week. With a Tie in between. For balance.
You will notice the projected playoff line has moved up a lot from 34 to 42, which seems a lot more normal. Coincidentally, it is exactly where it was last year the first time I put up a PPG projection when the Revs were in 6th with a 41.82 projected points.
I should probably remind everyone what I also said then which is that this projection has a very low confidence level and to the extent it points at anything it is the better than 50% line, meaning if you're above it there's a sort of 50% chance you'll make the playoffs. I myself think the line will be between 42 and 49, which is based on a combination of history, hunches, and numbers. If I'm right we're not really safe at our current level and need to get better because I think the rest of the East will improve. As a guide to what that would mean for us, here's the current chart of what NYC needs to do in its remaining 21 games to reach some likely point totals.
Chin up everyone.
Philly in first, NYC in 4th. Orlando 5. RB 6. DCU 7. All the same.
The Canadian teams flipped 2 and 3, and 8-10 squiggled a bit but who cares.
So again. after the most momentous week in team history. After the biggest high and lowest low we are pretty much in the same place, which is pretty good but not great.
Plus I can't believe nobody said this yet, but how weird, amazing, glorious, and hideous is it that we had what was likely NYCFC's best win ever and certainly it's worst loss in the same damn week. With a Tie in between. For balance.
You will notice the projected playoff line has moved up a lot from 34 to 42, which seems a lot more normal. Coincidentally, it is exactly where it was last year the first time I put up a PPG projection when the Revs were in 6th with a 41.82 projected points.
I should probably remind everyone what I also said then which is that this projection has a very low confidence level and to the extent it points at anything it is the better than 50% line, meaning if you're above it there's a sort of 50% chance you'll make the playoffs. I myself think the line will be between 42 and 49, which is based on a combination of history, hunches, and numbers. If I'm right we're not really safe at our current level and need to get better because I think the rest of the East will improve. As a guide to what that would mean for us, here's the current chart of what NYC needs to do in its remaining 21 games to reach some likely point totals.
Chin up everyone.
As always, great analysis. I think the lines where we end at 44 or 47 points are reasonable. I have a hard time seeing (with our remaining schedule) us doing much better than that. But we have been a lot better on the road and against the west. So here's hoping.
Has NYCFC's home form put their playoff hopes in jeopardy?
"Of the 52 teams to make the playoffs since MLS moved to a 34-game schedule in 2011, only two have won fewer than seven home games. Those teams were the 2011 Colorado Rapids and Sporting Kansas City in 2014.
Those teams each finished with six wins at home, meaning NYCFC would have to win half of their home games the rest of the season to match them, which may be difficult with Real Salt Lake (6/2), Colorado (7/30), LA (8/20) and Dallas (9/17) still set to visit. Not to mention, another round looms with the Red Bulls (7/3)."
There's even more. I think they overstate what we have to do, because they ignore our 3 wins in only 6 away games so far. But to be sure, the tension between our position in the standings and our home record is real and will not sustain itself. RTWT as the hip bloggers used to say in 2003.
"Of the 52 teams to make the playoffs since MLS moved to a 34-game schedule in 2011, only two have won fewer than seven home games. Those teams were the 2011 Colorado Rapids and Sporting Kansas City in 2014.
Those teams each finished with six wins at home, meaning NYCFC would have to win half of their home games the rest of the season to match them, which may be difficult with Real Salt Lake (6/2), Colorado (7/30), LA (8/20) and Dallas (9/17) still set to visit. Not to mention, another round looms with the Red Bulls (7/3)."
There's even more. I think they overstate what we have to do, because they ignore our 3 wins in only 6 away games so far. But to be sure, the tension between our position in the standings and our home record is real and will not sustain itself. RTWT as the hip bloggers used to say in 2003.
They can't mention our away record because we really are the best road team, and are built to play on any field not our own, and it goes completely against the norm and their (biased) talking points. Now if we nose-dive away, then whatever, the season is lost (because I don't think PV has figured out or will figure out how to play at home).
To what degree do you think Home/away splits are an arbitrary categorization?
More than home/away records, I think the quality of our upcoming opposition gets stronger as we go forward.
June through July is brutal for us.
I think Home/Away is very real. From 2013:
"Since 2008, 100 different MLS squads have taken the field and 96 of them have played better at home than on the road (measured by goal differential). The average home team over the past five and a half years has a positive goal differential of +0.47 goals a game."
http://statsbomb.com/2013/07/home-field-advantage-in-the-mls/
Next from 2014: measuring more than 1700 MLS games excluding draws, the Home team won 67% of the time. None of the other major US team sports reached 60%.
Finally, my own stats from earlier in the thread:
http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...r-hope-by-the-numbers.4455/page-3#post-141760
Between 2011-2015, only 7 teams have had a winning Away record.
Between 2011-2015, only 5 teams have had a better Away record than Home.
Note: 2011 is when the league went to a 34 game schedule.
I don't disagree with the importance of quality of opponent. But Home and Away is real, and easier to measure, especially early in the season. Who knew Colorado and Philadelphia would be any good? If we succced by continuing our pattern this team will be a true anomaly.
Thought experiment: Take our three away wins and replace them with losses. Take three of our home losses and replace them with wins. Do you feel better about our playoff chances now? Should you? Would you write an article about how our road record dooms our chances?
My position is that our home record is worrisome only to the extent that it suggests the team faces a disadvantage at home in future games. Otherwise every W and L counts equally.
If we didn't have an unusual field, I'd feel comfortable ignoring our home vs away record completely. As it is, it does concern me that I still feel more fearful when an opponent gets a long throw opportunity than I do hopeful when we get one.
But in general, I think this is overblown. With the exception of last Saturday, I think we have played at least as well at home as away despite the disparity in results, and I expect both of these numbers to regress to the mean as the season continues.
My position is that our home record is worrisome only to the extent that it suggests the team faces a disadvantage at home in future games. Otherwise every W and L counts equally.
If we didn't have an unusual field, I'd feel comfortable ignoring our home vs away record completely. As it is, it does concern me that I still feel more fearful when an opponent gets a long throw opportunity than I do hopeful when we get one.
But in general, I think this is overblown. With the exception of last Saturday, I think we have played at least as well at home as away despite the disparity in results, and I expect both of these numbers to regress to the mean as the season continues.
This is a great point. And to expound on that point, this article is nothing but click-bait. You put a headline like that on there and reading about "doom and gloom" is all sorts of fun and everyone clicks on it.
There's nothing more to this.
This is entirely correct. The analysis in that article is absurd. You don't make the playoffs or not by winning home games. You make the playoffs or not by generating points from home and away games. The fact that we haven't won much at home isn't as important an indicator than our overall points per game, which is fine.
If you assume we keep on our current track we'll be fine, probably.
If you assume we revert to the mean, we do better.
Currently, our home PPG is 1.0 and Away is 1.67. If we do that to the end of the season we get 45 points. we would also have a season for the ages, opposite of all home away trends by an absurd amount. So I agree we will revert to the mean.
If we revert to the mean we do better. Last year playoff teams earned 2.04 PPG at home and 1.06 at home.
If we do that from this point we get 49 points.
If you're not concerned that we might be more likely to drop our Away performance towards average than to double our home PPG, I admire your sunny disposition.
If you're gonna do it, do it big - we're balling away from home!!!
I still think we can do it, but we'll be skating at the margins of history if we do.
The dead horse needs some more beating....
Going back at least 10 years, no team has made the MLS playoffs without a winning record at home. But we're only 1 game under, so flipping that won't be hard, right? To get a winning record at home, we must go
6-4-0
6-3-1
5-3-2
Or get even fewer losses, maybe with more ties. We still have to play at home against
RSL, PHI, RB, COL, LAG, DAL
Plus 4 teams easier to beat but if we lose to just 1 of the 4 we really need to rack up wins against the better 6. To date, the longest we have ever gone maintaining a record 2 games above .500 at home is a 4 games stretch last August-September . Maybe we don't lose more than 3 or 4 home games, or maybe we become the first team to make the playoffs without a winning home record. Any of these can happen. But recognize that it's either doing far, far better than we have ever done at home against really tough opponents, or making history without a winning home record.
So maybe we make it to one game over 50% at home. In the last 5 years of a 34 game season only one team, SKC in 2014, has made the playoffs with a winning differential of merely +1 at home. Every other playoff team has had at least 3 more wins than losses at home. 2014 SKC made the playoffs by having 8 road wins. In the last 5 years only 5 teams have managed 8 or more road wins. It's doable, but it is not a mundane accomplishment.
If we make the playoffs we either
1. have an extremely dramatic change in our H/A record to date, or
2. Make MLS history. I'm all for making history, if that's what it takes, but I won't minimize it now and certainly not if the team pulls it off.
I still hope we win our next 3 at home, and we're 2 games over just like that. Even then it's a tough road to maintain it. And it has to start immediately.
Going back at least 10 years, no team has made the MLS playoffs without a winning record at home. But we're only 1 game under, so flipping that won't be hard, right? To get a winning record at home, we must go
6-4-0
6-3-1
5-3-2
Or get even fewer losses, maybe with more ties. We still have to play at home against
RSL, PHI, RB, COL, LAG, DAL
Plus 4 teams easier to beat but if we lose to just 1 of the 4 we really need to rack up wins against the better 6. To date, the longest we have ever gone maintaining a record 2 games above .500 at home is a 4 games stretch last August-September . Maybe we don't lose more than 3 or 4 home games, or maybe we become the first team to make the playoffs without a winning home record. Any of these can happen. But recognize that it's either doing far, far better than we have ever done at home against really tough opponents, or making history without a winning home record.
So maybe we make it to one game over 50% at home. In the last 5 years of a 34 game season only one team, SKC in 2014, has made the playoffs with a winning differential of merely +1 at home. Every other playoff team has had at least 3 more wins than losses at home. 2014 SKC made the playoffs by having 8 road wins. In the last 5 years only 5 teams have managed 8 or more road wins. It's doable, but it is not a mundane accomplishment.
If we make the playoffs we either
1. have an extremely dramatic change in our H/A record to date, or
2. Make MLS history. I'm all for making history, if that's what it takes, but I won't minimize it now and certainly not if the team pulls it off.
I still hope we win our next 3 at home, and we're 2 games over just like that. Even then it's a tough road to maintain it. And it has to start immediately.
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Also, ask this: What is more likely, that our away record is a fluke and/or easily reversible or that our home record is such?
So the question is, (to me,) is there something inherent in a home field that produces these lopsided historical results? If our team is better suited to a large field, but play on a small field at home, it would make sense for us to win away from home, but the worry is that the other negatives of being away (travel, hostile crowd, ( what are the others?)) will drive those results down.
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