Ha, I was thinking the very same thing. Also, I could talk about spreadsheet formatting all day.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Spreadsheet formatting? Don't talk dirty to me like that you slut.
Awesome game. Longer analysis to come but some initial figures.
- 1.45 PPG is the highest later than Game 3 in team history.
- +1 GD is the highest later than Game 4 in team history.
- We never before had a winning record later than week 3.
- We're better against the West than the East so far, 3.0 PPG to 1.11.
- We're better on the road than at home so far, 1.80 PPG to 1.17.
- Those last 2 stats probably reflect our improvement rather than what they superficially show. If we keep playing like we are, both should change, in a good way.
- We have the best road record in the league: tied with Toronto with 3 road wins but we've done it in 3 fewer games.
- Nobody in the West has 3 road wins.
- We have 16 points after 11 games. Last year we reached 17 after 16 games on June 20, also with the third win in a row.
- This is the team's third 3 game winning streak.
Last edited:
One interesting thing to note is how tiebreakers are decided for conference standings:
1.Total number of wins
2.Goal Differential (GD)
3.Goals For (GF)
4.Fewest Disciplinary Points*
5.Away Goals Differential
6.Away Goal For
7.Home Goals Differential
8.Home Goal For
9.Coin Toss (tie of 2 clubs) or Drawing of Lots (tie of 3 or more clubs)
After wins, then goal differential, then goals for, MLS decides tiebreakers about how clean and nice you play the game...
1.Total number of wins
2.Goal Differential (GD)
3.Goals For (GF)
4.Fewest Disciplinary Points*
5.Away Goals Differential
6.Away Goal For
7.Home Goals Differential
8.Home Goal For
9.Coin Toss (tie of 2 clubs) or Drawing of Lots (tie of 3 or more clubs)
After wins, then goal differential, then goals for, MLS decides tiebreakers about how clean and nice you play the game...
I kind of like that. It could come in to play but is low enough that it is below the more meaningful factors.
I do wish the first tie-breaker during the season would be lowest games played. It makes sense in a points based system. The NHL does it. Basically if 2 or more teams have the same number of points but not the same number of games you're just reflecting reality to put the one with fewest games on points on top. At the end of the season that breaker becomes irrelevant.
Last edited:
Some Notes On Home and Away Records
We are 1-1-4 at Home and 3-2-0 Away for 1.17 and 1.80 PPG respectively. This is not normal.
As noted in a prior post, getting 6 road wins (since MLS went to a 34 game schedule in 2011) has always put a team in the top 4 road record in the league. We need to get only 3 road wins in our last 12 road games to get that. That's great. The rest of this post is potentially worrisome, but not catastrophic. We have both a winning Away record and a better Away record than at Home.
Since 2011, only 7 teams have had a winning Away record.
The average total points for teams with a winning Away record is 61.
Six of the seven made the playoffs. in 2014, Portland had a winning Away record but only 49 points, and came in sixth, which was below the playoff line then. All of the others made the playoffs and 3 won Supporters Shield.
Having a winning Away record is usually a sign of a very strong team.
Since 2011, only 5 teams have had a better Away record than Home.
The average total points for teams with a better Away record is 46.
Only two of the five made the playoffs.
Having a better Away record is usually a sign that you screwed things up at Home.
So far, at 1-1-4, we have screwed things up at Home. After Toronto, we have another long 4-game home stand, and need to keep up with our improved results. I do not think we have to have a winning Away record to make the best of this situation. We can do well with a strong Away record and an improved Home record.
We are 1-1-4 at Home and 3-2-0 Away for 1.17 and 1.80 PPG respectively. This is not normal.
As noted in a prior post, getting 6 road wins (since MLS went to a 34 game schedule in 2011) has always put a team in the top 4 road record in the league. We need to get only 3 road wins in our last 12 road games to get that. That's great. The rest of this post is potentially worrisome, but not catastrophic. We have both a winning Away record and a better Away record than at Home.
Since 2011, only 7 teams have had a winning Away record.
The average total points for teams with a winning Away record is 61.
Six of the seven made the playoffs. in 2014, Portland had a winning Away record but only 49 points, and came in sixth, which was below the playoff line then. All of the others made the playoffs and 3 won Supporters Shield.
Having a winning Away record is usually a sign of a very strong team.
Since 2011, only 5 teams have had a better Away record than Home.
The average total points for teams with a better Away record is 46.
Only two of the five made the playoffs.
Having a better Away record is usually a sign that you screwed things up at Home.
So far, at 1-1-4, we have screwed things up at Home. After Toronto, we have another long 4-game home stand, and need to keep up with our improved results. I do not think we have to have a winning Away record to make the best of this situation. We can do well with a strong Away record and an improved Home record.
Last edited:
Great stuff.
A couple games ago, there was much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth about the fact that we had a mid-pack record despite having played an easy part of the schedule, mostly at home against poorer teams. All of that was quite reasonable. Still, after Wednesday,we will have the same number of home and away games and have played some of the tougher contests on our schedule. Using PPG, we will somewhere between first and fourth in the East, and, if we win, will be sixth in the Supporters' Shield race. Those are great spots to be in. We will still need to take care of business in the upcoming 4-game home stand, but it shows how quickly things can change.
A couple games ago, there was much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth about the fact that we had a mid-pack record despite having played an easy part of the schedule, mostly at home against poorer teams. All of that was quite reasonable. Still, after Wednesday,we will have the same number of home and away games and have played some of the tougher contests on our schedule. Using PPG, we will somewhere between first and fourth in the East, and, if we win, will be sixth in the Supporters' Shield race. Those are great spots to be in. We will still need to take care of business in the upcoming 4-game home stand, but it shows how quickly things can change.
What Do We Need/Want From 4 Games At Home
I don't there is a definitive, objectively correct answer to this, but here are some numbers-based thoughts.
My bottom line is for NYCFC to get 8 points from this 4-game Home stand. I can grudgingly accept 7 as barely adequate. 6 points is not catastrophic given our position and the current East table, but it is bad given our current form. In fact, given our current form, we should get more than 8. But 8 is fine.
The combined Away record of our next 4 opponents is 3 Wins 14 Losses and 5 Ties. That is 0.636 PPG. One of the 3 wins is already against us in that depressing Orlando game. There is no reason for us to add to that total (although I would gladly take 3 Wins 1 Loss and 9 Points). These are horrible road teams to date.
If we get 8 points in the next 4 games the team's Home PPG jumps to 1.50 for the season which is close to where it should be and still below the Away PPG of 1.667. The PPG overall would be 1.5625 which projects to 53 points for the season.
I believe hoping for more than 8 is realistic. Winning 3 with either a tie or loss is not even slightly ridiculous. Winning all 4 at home would not be a shock. But 8 is I think the bottom line to be happy, with no tinge of disappointment.
I don't there is a definitive, objectively correct answer to this, but here are some numbers-based thoughts.
- Our current PPG at home is 1.167 and this cannot stand if NYCFC is to be a playoff team.
- After this home stand we will have only 7 remaining Home games and 11 Away.
- Last year we had two 3-game winning streaks: Philly/Montreal/Toronto in June (this excludes the Open Cup loss focused only on league play) and Toronto/San Jose/Vancouver in September.
- We followed the first 3-game streak with 7 points in the next 5, and 4 in the 5 games after that.
- We followed the second 3-game streak by closing the season with 3 straight losses.
My bottom line is for NYCFC to get 8 points from this 4-game Home stand. I can grudgingly accept 7 as barely adequate. 6 points is not catastrophic given our position and the current East table, but it is bad given our current form. In fact, given our current form, we should get more than 8. But 8 is fine.
The combined Away record of our next 4 opponents is 3 Wins 14 Losses and 5 Ties. That is 0.636 PPG. One of the 3 wins is already against us in that depressing Orlando game. There is no reason for us to add to that total (although I would gladly take 3 Wins 1 Loss and 9 Points). These are horrible road teams to date.
If we get 8 points in the next 4 games the team's Home PPG jumps to 1.50 for the season which is close to where it should be and still below the Away PPG of 1.667. The PPG overall would be 1.5625 which projects to 53 points for the season.
I believe hoping for more than 8 is realistic. Winning 3 with either a tie or loss is not even slightly ridiculous. Winning all 4 at home would not be a shock. But 8 is I think the bottom line to be happy, with no tinge of disappointment.
Good stuff. If we get at least 8 points, will you change your tagline (though it was the perfect summary of the season as of the end of the Montreal draw)? At some point this season will actually have become fun!
I definitely need a new signature line. It's no longer true. I just need to come up with the replacement.
[For future reference -- although expecting anyone might care is unlikely -- my current sig is "I really thought this year would be more fun."]
Last edited:
8 or 9 points is needed in order to "balance" out the early struggles at home. 8 points would mean 2-0-2 from the homestand, 9 would be 3-1-0.
Anything less would be a disaster and means that NYCFC needs a historically good road record the rest of the way to make the playoffs. Give the team credit for pulling themselves up after the bad start (7 pts on the past road trip is fantastic and the team should be applauded) but doesn't mean a thing unless they can take care of business at home.
Should be noted that most of the MLS talking heads were gushing uncontrollably about how Toronto got 11 points out of their first 8 away games ("historic achievement" was even used). NYCFC has 10 pts out of 6 road games.
Anything less would be a disaster and means that NYCFC needs a historically good road record the rest of the way to make the playoffs. Give the team credit for pulling themselves up after the bad start (7 pts on the past road trip is fantastic and the team should be applauded) but doesn't mean a thing unless they can take care of business at home.
Should be noted that most of the MLS talking heads were gushing uncontrollably about how Toronto got 11 points out of their first 8 away games ("historic achievement" was even used). NYCFC has 10 pts out of 6 road games.
Great stuff. Looking at the Away record of our next 4, the teams that they played averaged 2.24 PPG for those contests, which would project to 9 points for us.
Using PPG as a measure, we are playing the teams ranked 4th, 7th, 14th and 15th in the league. We are ranked 9th.
Overall, I think 8 points is a reasonable expectation, and 10 points a laudable goal.
I have a theory on our current away games. We took everybody along for the obvious reason of wanting everybody available to play, but I think there's a more important side to it. This was a week-long (maybe shorter) trip where everybody was sequestered together and had a chance to develop a family atmosphere. Most weeks the players congregate at training and then go their separate ways, but on a road trip, they're all experiencing the same stuff, in this case hotels, per diem, and a chartered flight. This is second nature to the starters on road trips, but to the developmental guys that never make the 18, or only do so at home, this is a big deal and probably helped to foster a positive atmosphere. And for guys that don't get a lot of playing time, these little perks are big and not only shows what they can aspire to with more training but also reinforces that their roles are meaningful. I really think the mindset has changed as of 5 games ago where they look more like a club doing what they can when they get the chance.
I expect
mgarbowski to be revamping his numbers every week and being less of a (thoughtful) curmudgeon with their chances.
Last edited:
Are they the actual rules? What scenario were they thinking of where two clubs had an identical goal difference and away goal difference, but somehow conspired to have a different home GD? Or for that matter, how do you have an equal total goals for and away GF, but different for home?
I'm actually fairly sanguine now after this road trip, although it's going to take a bit more sustained performance to make me truly confident.I expectmgarbowski to be revamping his numbers every week and being less of a (thoughtful) curmudgeon with their chances.
Now last summer, well, I was basically the forum's resident hope killer.
I'm torn between two thoughts:
1. they actually don't realize what they did there; and
2. not wanting to try to explain basic math to the inevitable inquiries pointing out their "mistake" of leaving out Home Goal Differential.
I have a theory on our current away games. We took everybody along for the obvious reason of wanting everybody available to play, but I think there's a more important side to it. This was a week-long (maybe shorter) trip where everybody was sequestered together and had a chance to develop a family atmosphere. Most weeks the players congregate at training and then go their separate ways, but on a road trip, they're all experiencing the same stuff, in this case hotels, per diem, and a chartered flight. This is second nature to the starters on road trips, but to the developmental guys that never make the 18, or only do so at home, this is a big deal and probably helped to foster a positive atmosphere. And for guys that don't get a lot of playing time, these little perks are big and not only shows what they can aspire to with more training but also reinforces that their roles are meaningful. I really think the mindset has changed as of 5 games ago where they look more like a club doing what they can when they get the chance.
I expect
This is entirely the case, and I think I recall Coach V saying as much. He has been big on building team unity all along.
Orlando has one road win. They got it against us.
New England has 3 points of 18 from its road games. One is from us.
Chicago has 2 points of 15 from its road games. One is from us.
The Red Bulls have one road win. Against us.
New England has 3 points of 18 from its road games. One is from us.
Chicago has 2 points of 15 from its road games. One is from us.
The Red Bulls have one road win. Against us.
Similar threads
- Poll
