2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[Ulrich]

I was asking, not saying.
Venezuela plays on Thursday, so hard to imagine he wouldn't need to be with the team on Tuesday night.
Guzan, I'm not sure.

I think your original question/premise is probably correct. I haven’t read anything anywhere, but Arena would be a fool to allow Guzan to join camp late with the two most important NT games in the last 28 years. If Howard goes down during stretching tomorrow, then we’ve only got Rimando until Wednesday. I don’t think he’d take that chance. Can’t see the VNT allowing Martinez to fly in late either with the distance involved - that’d kill his legs.

 

[canchon]

So this means Atlanta plays MIN with no Almiron, no Josef, no Guzan and having played all these games in a short time frame...

MIN is terrible, but recipe is there for ATL to get MLS'd.

 

[SoupInNYC]

So this means Atlanta plays MIN with no Almiron, no Josef, no Guzan and having played all these games in a short time frame...

MIN is terrible, but recipe is there for ATL to get MLS'd.

Minnesota is missing a few as well. Molino is out, one of their defenders, and I think 2 others #mobilepost

 

[Gotham Gator]

A couple of nice observations from Doyle this morning.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017...-shield-claimed-dont-sleep-crew-sc-more-wk-30

Figuring out that Royer's fit and Veron's translated his super-sub powers into starting capabilities feels like a huge step for this team, and it allowed Jesse Marsch to toy around with a new formation: A diamond midfield with both Veron and Bradley Wright-Phillips up top.

The issue continues to be defense. They scored multiple goals in the third straight game and have taken just one point in that span, and unless Aurelien Collin gets healthy they don't have the horses they need to make a serious run.

But if you're looking for a playoff darkhorse who can ruin somebody's day like what Montreal did to the then-favored Red Bulls last year... this is your team. There is a big advantage to grabbing the No. 2 seed instead of the No. 3 seed in the East this year.

* * *

Columbus secured a playoff spot and are unbeaten in eight, with an outside shot at grabbing a home game in the Knockout Rounds. Gregg Berhalter's done a nice job over the last few months reinventing his team.

* * *

For NYCFC, I get the impression that Patrick Vieira is in the final stages of locking in his rotation. Yangel Herrera, Alex Ring and David Villa are all back and fit, and Jack Harrison got a 15-minute breather at the end, and I think it's fair to call Andraz Struna the new starter at right back.

This team's about to become a nightmare to play against again.

​

 

[canchon]

Doyle is spot on about RBNJ, I watched part of the second half against Toronto and they carried the play. Falling to the 3 seed and playing them in a one-off game, even at YS, would be a perfect scenario for an upset.

And before people kill me saying "this team is horrible and they haven't won in a month etc" - I'm not saying that RBNJ would be favored, just that if things go right for RBNJ, they could finally have things click and win that game. They haven't looked awful, just made a ton of mistakes. They clean it up, BWP has a game, and it's season over.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Doyle is spot on about RBNJ, I watched part of the second half against Toronto and they carried the play. Falling to the 3 seed and playing them in a one-off game, even at YS, would be a perfect scenario for an upset.

And before people kill me saying "this team is horrible and they haven't won in a month etc" - I'm not saying that RBNJ would be favored, just that if things go right for RBNJ, they could finally have things click and win that game. They haven't looked awful, just made a ton of mistakes. They clean it up, BWP has a game, and it's season over.

We played the Red Fools three times this year, and they were better against us in each successive game - from a blowout by us, to a tight game where we were down and fought back for a deserved win, to a draw that we honestly should have lost. I don't want to play them again, but to be fair, there isn't a playoff team in the East that couldn't come into Yankee Stadium and take one.

 

[Seven]

Doyle is spot on about RBNJ, I watched part of the second half against Toronto and they carried the play. Falling to the 3 seed and playing them in a one-off game, even at YS, would be a perfect scenario for an upset.

And before people kill me saying "this team is horrible and they haven't won in a month etc" - I'm not saying that RBNJ would be favored, just that if things go right for RBNJ, they could finally have things click and win that game. They haven't looked awful, just made a ton of mistakes. They clean it up, BWP has a game, and it's season over.

As much as I said earlier that this has been a great season no matter what happens in the playoffs, I might change my mind if we were to lose a knockout game to the Red Bulls at Yankee Stadium.

And I would agree that they are capable of doing it.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Doyle is spot on about RBNJ, I watched part of the second half against Toronto and they carried the play. Falling to the 3 seed and playing them in a one-off game, even at YS, would be a perfect scenario for an upset.

And before people kill me saying "this team is horrible and they haven't won in a month etc" - I'm not saying that RBNJ would be favored, just that if things go right for RBNJ, they could finally have things click and win that game. They haven't looked awful, just made a ton of mistakes. They clean it up, BWP has a game, and it's season over.

Yes. And to further this, it really is time to retire the whole 3 seed may be better than 2 seed crap this is being spewed several places. There is no way adding another game where you can be eliminated provides an advantage. For the following reasons:

1. You can lose and be eliminated (People that make the argument of 3 seed just seem to forget that there is another game that is needed to be won)
2. You're playing a midweek game ahead of a weekend game and can have more tired legs and/or injuries
3. For a team that is looking to make a run, this is an additional game where players can accumulate yellow cards and be suspended (seems especially important for our team)
4. See #1

I've seen arguments made about that not having that first game can maybe lead to the team being "rusty" in the conference semi-finals. That is such crap. The team won't be rusty because they play a game a week after another game. If that was the case, we would be "rusty" for the majority of the season.

Sorry for the rant this Monday AM, but I'm tired of hearing that nonsense.

 

[Ulrich]

Yes. And to further this, it really is time to retire the whole 3 seed may be better than 2 seed crap this is being spewed several places. There is no way adding another game where you can be eliminated provides an advantage. For the following reasons:

1. You can lose and be eliminated (People that make the argument of 3 seed just seem to forget that there is another game that is needed to be won)
2. You're playing a midweek game ahead of a weekend game and can have more tired legs and/or injuries
3. For a team that is looking to make a run, this is an additional game where players can accumulate yellow cards and be suspended (seems especially important for our team)
4. See #1

I've seen arguments made about that not having that first game can maybe lead to the team being "rusty" in the conference semi-finals. That is such crap. The team won't be rusty because they play a game a week after another game. If that was the case, we would be "rusty" for the majority of the season.

Sorry for the rant this Monday AM, but I'm tired of hearing that nonsense.

You are correct with your points, but the one point missed, that was key last year, is that playing on the road first puts a team in a position of a must-have point right off the bat in a hostile arena - that in itself nullifies the higher seed’s advantage. Don’t get that point with enough away goals, and you’re essentially playing from behind in the second leg when you’re supposed be have the advantage. When we lost to Toronto in the first game, they knew we had to come out swinging in the second and they tailored their tactics to punch us in the face off the counter. We had no other option than to walk right into their “trap” because we needed multiple goals.

 

[mgarbowski]

You are correct with your points, but the one point missed, that was key last year, is that playing on the road first puts a team in a position of a must-have point right off the bat in a hostile arena - that in itself nullifies the higher seed’s advantage. Don’t get that point with enough away goals, and you’re essentially playing from behind in the second leg when you’re supposed be have the advantage. When we lost to Toronto in the first game, they knew we had to come out swinging in the second and they tailored their tactics to punch us in the face off the counter. We had no other option than to walk right into their “trap” because we needed multiple goals.

Yeah but, does that overcome the other benefits finishing second that Soup mentioned? I also dread the prospect of a Game 1 in Atlanta, especially as we can barely score one goal per game right now, but I'll take that over the extra game with all the downsides it entails.

 

[SoupInNYC]

You are correct with your points, but the one point missed, that was key last year, is that playing on the road first puts a team in a position of a must-have point right off the bat in a hostile arena - that in itself nullifies the higher seed’s advantage. Don’t get that point with enough away goals, and you’re essentially playing from behind in the second leg when you’re supposed be have the advantage. When we lost to Toronto in the first game, they knew we had to come out swinging in the second and they tailored their tactics to punch us in the face off the counter. We had no other option than to walk right into their “trap” because we needed multiple goals.

I see that, but that is not nearly enough IMO to outweigh the advantages of having a 2 seed. Which, most importantly, is having to win another game. You only get the "advantage" of the first home game in a home and away if you win a game first.

Additionally, I don't buy too much into that particular advantage that you lay out there and others have pointed out. Now I will say that that did become a big advantage for TFC last season, but I think that was moreso for two reasons:

1. They were a better team than we were last year
2. Our squad last year was not built to be able overcome leads like that. Couple that with having to do so against an offensive juggernaut such as TFC and our defensive liabilities, we were bound to give at least one goal up at home

For this year, I think the only team that would apply to would be Atlanta. Yes we've had some finishing troubles lately, but if Chicago or Columbus were to bunker at Yankee Stadium against us up 2-0, I would feel pretty decent about our chances. That, and we score enough that I don't think we'd be in that hole to begin with.

 

[Ulrich]

Yeah but, does that overcome the other benefits finishing second that Soup mentioned? I also dread the prospect of a Game 1 in Atlanta, especially as we can barely score one goal per game right now, but I'll take that over the extra game with all the downsides it entails.

No question I want the 2seed this year because with our YS schedule snafu, it actually plays to our advantage versus a very likely tired Atlanta. And all of Soups points are good, I wasn’t questioning them, but last year was an example, perhaps of a perfect storm, and we got skewered.

My hope is that they change the rules so that the higher seed gets to pick which leg they host. Throw in some gamesmanship of not needing to announce it until an hour after the knockout game is finished. There really should be a larger advantage to finishing higher during the regular season.

 

[Jon]

No question I want the 2seed this year because with our YS schedule snafu, it actually plays to our advantage versus a very likely tired Atlanta. And all of Soups points are good, I wasn’t questioning them, but last year was an example, perhaps of a perfect storm, and we got skewered.

My hope is that they change the rules so that the higher seed gets to pick which leg they host. Throw in some gamesmanship of not needing to announce it until an hour after the knockout game is finished. There really should be a larger advantage to finishing higher during the regular season.

Or you go single game elimination through the entire playoffs. It's ridiculous that you go single game elimination knock out round, 2 legs for conference semis and finals, then single game for cup game.

Look at the NFL. It's not like the lower seed complains about not getting a home game. Play better and you'll get one.

 

[sbrylski]

I really want them to change the rules to either a single game hosted by the higher seed, or the higher seed gets to choose which match they host in the series.

There was a report out that they are looking at shortening the playoffs to single-game knockouts next year, but there's healthy opposition to losing home playoff games. I would be surprised if there are no changes made though.

I really want them to start the regular season just two weeks earlier. Skipping ahead to 2019 (to avoid the World Cup complications), if we started Week 1 on Friday, Feb 15, there's 37 weeks of play until Sunday, October 27 (with four international breaks in there).

Play a 3-game group stage in the two weeks between 10/27 and the 11/11-11/19 international break. Then upon return, play an 8-team, 3-game single-elimination knockout for the cup with the final played the weekend of December 7/8.

The two-stage postseason makes the November international break a much more natural fit. The other idea actually kicked around was to simply jam the postseason into the time before the international break, which robs us of soccer and rushes the whole thing, unless we move the regular season start date back to Super Bowl weekend or something.

 

[Seth]

I really want them to start the regular season just two weeks earlier.

And will you be buying down jackets and frostbite insurance for all 4,000 people who show up at Yankee Stadium for a February match?

 

[Gotham Gator]

The key to starting the season earlier is having enough warm weather venues for games in February and early March. You need at least half the league to be either warm enough or indoors in order to make it work. If not, then you can't play a full schedule.

Right now, most league teams are in places where it is too cold to play in February. With expansion, including Atlanta this year, that might change enough to adjust the schedule.

 

[sbrylski]

And will you be buying down jackets and frostbite insurance for all 4,000 people who show up at Yankee Stadium for a February match?

The idea would be to schedule the first 2-4 weeks away from cold climates. Many of the expansion candidates are in the south, so this will get easier over the next few years. We would need at least half of the league to be able to host in February via good weather or domes.

 

[The Toe]

There's a chance this affects us: ORL should get 3 pts from their game vs. FCD after FCD had a lineup infraction that should result in a forfeit, putting ORL at 41pts to RBs 43, though NJ has a game in hand.

 

[Ulrich]

There's a chance this affects us: ORL should get 3 pts from their game vs. FCD after FCD had a lineup infraction that should result in a forfeit, putting ORL at 41pts to RBs 43, though NJ has a game in hand.

Wait what??? Lineup infraction??? Who’d they play that wasn’t allowed?

 

[The Toe]

Wait what??? Lineup infraction??? Who’d they play that wasn’t allowed?

https://twitter.com/x/status/914967371470778373

Also De Leeuw tore his ACL and is done for the rest of the year.