It'll be interesting to see how the team fares after Dome has a full offseason to reshape the team. For now we can still credit it to "Dome came in half way through", but we don't know if that's valid or not just yet.
2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Last year NYC finished the season very poorly, with just 7 points in the final 7 games. So unless the current very poor run continues, the 2018 version is likely to outperform 2017.
But another way of looking at it is that NYCFC is basically a good but not very good team over it's last 34 regular season games, and just mediocre with the exception of the 5-0-1 start of this year. In the last 34 games NYCFC is 15-9-10 for 55 points and 1.62 PPG.
Back out the first 6 games of this year, and NYCFC is just 10-9-9 for 39 points over 28 games, and a weak 1.39 PPG.
As I've said multiple times lately, it is unfair to exclude any team's best run of 5-8 games from it's record, but I also think this demonstrates that following this team has been has been very disappointing, compared to expectations, for an entire year now, alleviated by just 6 good weeks in March-April this year. There was another nice run driven mostly by playing 6 of 7 at home, fully offset by the times when we played mostly Away. Really the only time this team has looked like it could be excellent in the last 12 months -- both home and away -- was a month and one-half at the start of this year.
Throw in the playoff loss and USOC failure, and, this does not look anything like an elite team. It's a good team, but not elite.
But another way of looking at it is that NYCFC is basically a good but not very good team over it's last 34 regular season games, and just mediocre with the exception of the 5-0-1 start of this year. In the last 34 games NYCFC is 15-9-10 for 55 points and 1.62 PPG.
Back out the first 6 games of this year, and NYCFC is just 10-9-9 for 39 points over 28 games, and a weak 1.39 PPG.
As I've said multiple times lately, it is unfair to exclude any team's best run of 5-8 games from it's record, but I also think this demonstrates that following this team has been has been very disappointing, compared to expectations, for an entire year now, alleviated by just 6 good weeks in March-April this year. There was another nice run driven mostly by playing 6 of 7 at home, fully offset by the times when we played mostly Away. Really the only time this team has looked like it could be excellent in the last 12 months -- both home and away -- was a month and one-half at the start of this year.
Throw in the playoff loss and USOC failure, and, this does not look anything like an elite team. It's a good team, but not elite.
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And the one piece that has consistently been missing since our 12th game this season has been Yangel Herrera. In fact, up to that point we had only had 2 truly shitty games (@ POR and @RBNJ) and Yangel had not been in the lineup in Portland. Everybody else that we would consider part of our core (or core-ish, if that were a word) has been in and out in terms of availability (Chanot, Villa, Isi, Berget, Medina, etc.)
I don't want to overstate the point, but in many of our shitty games, more than just the defensive errors and the limp offensive performance, we seemed to have lost the midfield. And Herrera, by the sheer force of his physicality and the degree of recklessness he brought, would seem to wake up the team. For me, he is the anti Tummy or the anti Ofori: a guy who cannot stay in bounds of his role but, for that same reason, forces the team to shift gears.
I really think he's the missing sauce, and I hope the FO will look for a similar type of player if we lose him after 2018.
I don't want to overstate the point, but in many of our shitty games, more than just the defensive errors and the limp offensive performance, we seemed to have lost the midfield. And Herrera, by the sheer force of his physicality and the degree of recklessness he brought, would seem to wake up the team. For me, he is the anti Tummy or the anti Ofori: a guy who cannot stay in bounds of his role but, for that same reason, forces the team to shift gears.
I really think he's the missing sauce, and I hope the FO will look for a similar type of player if we lose him after 2018.
What’s very interesting about Herrera, and I always thought he was critical to our play even if he wasn’t a scorer, is that his replacement, Ofori, is not a scorer either. Herrera took a ton of shit for not being the Lampard-esque type of #8 that can *score* in addition to disrupt/link play, and while it would be a welcome ability it isn’t tantamount to success. Instead, that (missing) player has to first and foremost fill the midfield and cover an ungodly amount of space free up Ring to anticipate any fires. That’s not to say I was ever satisfied with Herrera whiffing on shots, but he anticipated the passes when we pressed and forced a ton of turnovers. Now that we have more depth up front, the guys that can capitalize on turnovers, we really are left wanting with Herrera still sidelined. Granted, the team still perhaps would not know what Dome wants of them, and similarly Dome may not know what he wants, but having a lock-down third Midfielder in a 3-man set would be nice (and no, I don’t think Ofori has come close to replicating Herrera’s marshaling of the midfield) to help with this managerial transition.
It’s good that there have been recent photos of Herrera running on an Alter-G treadmill. He may be closer to returning than we realize. His cardio is at least being built up even if his leg isn’t 100%. Maybe he’ll get the green light after our 2nd 3week break if not sooner.
You also have to consider how many long balls Herrera won, both offensively and defensively, that the shorter/less physical Ofori doesn't. Ofori has a higher completion rate, but also plays the safe pass a bit too often. Moreover, when he loses the ball under pressure Ofori tends not to have the decisiveness to go after it immediately, while Herrera is a bulldog (sometimes, maybe even often, he would launch an ill-advised tackle trying to recover)
NYCFC has just 6 points in its last 8 games. The last 8-game stretch as bad or worse than that was in the club's first season, 2015, when they finished at 1.08 PG overall. For those wondering, the first 8 games of 2016 earned 7 points.
NYCFC has 33 points in its last 23 games. To find a 23-game stretch that bad you also have to go back to 2015. You can select the first 22 games of 2016 plus the last 1 of 2015, which yielded the same 33 points. If you want a 23-game run in one season, you have to go to the last 23 games of 2015, which generated 30 points.
So it is fair to say this team has had both its worst medium length run of games and worst extended run since its first season, which until now has seemed to be an aberration which never again needed to be revisited. NYCFC has never been so bad for so long since Kreis and a hideous roster forced on us by rules that were abandoned immediately afterwards.
But it is also fair to point out that the team's best 6-game run this year came at the very beginning, which lends itself to corresponding longer runs of poor, or at least mediocre play. Historically, this team has previously always had its best run around midseason.
Best 6-games of 2015 - 13 points games 14-19
Best 6-games of 2016 - 15 points games 14-19
Best 6-games of 2017 - 13 points games 15-20
Best 6-games of 2018 - 16 points games 1-6
(A note about all such streaks- there is often some wiggle room to choose the best 6 on either side of a 3-4 game core).
I don't think there is any reason why the best streak happened in games 1-6 this year instead of the usual time. So maybe that's driving the perception of 2018. Yes, you can point to the coaching instability and transition, which coincidentally started with the Arsenal rumors after Game 7 as the reason for the falloff (and I have so pointed), but that also cannot be the reason why the club had its best ever 6-games just before those rumors started. The club could easily have been its regular pretty good self during those early games, instead of its best ever 6-games.
It is also interesting that the club had its best ever second-best-non-overlapping-6-game-run in 2018. Games 16-21 (right around mid-season again) earned 15 points, which is also as good or better than the first best 6-game sets of all prior seasons. The second-best-6-games in 2015-17 earned 9, 11, and 13 points in order.
One more thing: the team's PPG in the games left after you back out the best-6 and next-best-6 is as follows:
2015 0.68
2016 1.27
2017 1.41
2018 1.06
This is a bit unfair to 2018 because it has only 17 games instead of 22 after excluding that pair of 6-game sequences. Maybe the club does get better in the last 5 games left and this improves. But for now, it is fair to say that in 2018 there has been a greater disparity between the best and worse, and more of a roller coaster effect, than any year after 2015, which is pretty much an outlier that I think most agree can be ignored for purposes of interesting comparisons.
Here are the charts. NYCFC is down to 6th in PPG, though just barely behind LAFC.
Remember when 64 points seemed a more than reasonable goal? Now it is the best that can be done.
The rolling 5-game PPG tells an ugly story.
Columbus has an opening to catch NYC. Philadelphia has an outside shot. If the Union wins both extra games - which is by no means a gimme - it is still 3 points back. The DC-Montreal-Revs race looks like it could come down to the final weekend.
Final note: NYC has the hardest remaining schedule except for Colorado. NYC's H/A adjusted opponents' PPG is 1.60. NYCFC's weakest Away Game opponent is Minnesota at 1.92 PPG. They also face Montreal 2.00 PPG and DC 2.20 PPG.
NYCFC has 33 points in its last 23 games. To find a 23-game stretch that bad you also have to go back to 2015. You can select the first 22 games of 2016 plus the last 1 of 2015, which yielded the same 33 points. If you want a 23-game run in one season, you have to go to the last 23 games of 2015, which generated 30 points.
So it is fair to say this team has had both its worst medium length run of games and worst extended run since its first season, which until now has seemed to be an aberration which never again needed to be revisited. NYCFC has never been so bad for so long since Kreis and a hideous roster forced on us by rules that were abandoned immediately afterwards.
But it is also fair to point out that the team's best 6-game run this year came at the very beginning, which lends itself to corresponding longer runs of poor, or at least mediocre play. Historically, this team has previously always had its best run around midseason.
Best 6-games of 2015 - 13 points games 14-19
Best 6-games of 2016 - 15 points games 14-19
Best 6-games of 2017 - 13 points games 15-20
Best 6-games of 2018 - 16 points games 1-6
(A note about all such streaks- there is often some wiggle room to choose the best 6 on either side of a 3-4 game core).
I don't think there is any reason why the best streak happened in games 1-6 this year instead of the usual time. So maybe that's driving the perception of 2018. Yes, you can point to the coaching instability and transition, which coincidentally started with the Arsenal rumors after Game 7 as the reason for the falloff (and I have so pointed), but that also cannot be the reason why the club had its best ever 6-games just before those rumors started. The club could easily have been its regular pretty good self during those early games, instead of its best ever 6-games.
It is also interesting that the club had its best ever second-best-non-overlapping-6-game-run in 2018. Games 16-21 (right around mid-season again) earned 15 points, which is also as good or better than the first best 6-game sets of all prior seasons. The second-best-6-games in 2015-17 earned 9, 11, and 13 points in order.
One more thing: the team's PPG in the games left after you back out the best-6 and next-best-6 is as follows:
2015 0.68
2016 1.27
2017 1.41
2018 1.06
This is a bit unfair to 2018 because it has only 17 games instead of 22 after excluding that pair of 6-game sequences. Maybe the club does get better in the last 5 games left and this improves. But for now, it is fair to say that in 2018 there has been a greater disparity between the best and worse, and more of a roller coaster effect, than any year after 2015, which is pretty much an outlier that I think most agree can be ignored for purposes of interesting comparisons.
Here are the charts. NYCFC is down to 6th in PPG, though just barely behind LAFC.
Remember when 64 points seemed a more than reasonable goal? Now it is the best that can be done.
The rolling 5-game PPG tells an ugly story.
Columbus has an opening to catch NYC. Philadelphia has an outside shot. If the Union wins both extra games - which is by no means a gimme - it is still 3 points back. The DC-Montreal-Revs race looks like it could come down to the final weekend.
Final note: NYC has the hardest remaining schedule except for Colorado. NYC's H/A adjusted opponents' PPG is 1.60. NYCFC's weakest Away Game opponent is Minnesota at 1.92 PPG. They also face Montreal 2.00 PPG and DC 2.20 PPG.
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That blue almost stagnant line is starting to look like orlando/chicago's line. yikes. Hope we can improve and get some wins before the playoffs, and I wonder if there are many games here we can actually win.
I edited my post from this morning to make the 22-game stretch 23 games, to have no break between the 6-game start and 23-games subsequent. This entailed a couple other tweaks but the major points are unaffected.
The major takeaway is that we’re not performing any better now than with Kreis, and even with a depleted squad, this squad is still more talented than anything Kreis ever had. The ‘18 keeper is better than the ‘15. The entire back 4 in ‘18 is better than ‘15. Only maybe Lampard individually could be said to be better in ‘15 than ‘18, and ‘18 has Maxi, Ring, Ofori, a rejuvenated Mata (that after a second game of watching looks quite good) so ‘18 is far better. The ‘18 forwards are better with Isi, Taty, Lewis (for 10min a game), and Villa (albeit tailing off quickly) than the ‘15 of a great Villa with no service but godlike shooting skills. Didn’t include Berget because of his injuries and Medina is obviously better than ‘15 but isn’t back yet and is coming off an Olympic diving competition.
Yeah, Dome is doing less with more and it feels just as unfulfilling.
Come on man. You just gonna pretend the rest of the league is playing with their 2015 squads too?
ETA - I don't think we were +65% possession and 30 v 2 shots with Kreis, maybe ever.
DC and NE were not playing with 2018 quality lineups - DC was more depleted than us and NE put out a second 11 team until they made subs. Columbus and Vancouver were tied in 2015 as the second best teams in MLS and they’re worse this season in the standings.
That’s four teams we dropped pts to, losing two and tying two.
D
dummyrun
Guest
You inspired me to make some interactive tables (data through last week): https://public.tableau.com/profile/dummy.run#!/vizhome/CumulativeCharts/Charts?publish=yes
Friedel played to win - Ian Joy wouldn't stop talking about the scoop he had on his winning game plan on the commentary. In any case, at this level of granularity, the conversation is underpowered statistically.
Short update with no NYCFC action this week.
While standing still, NYC gained a little ground looking both up and down at Red Bulls and Columbus. Catching RB would still take a Red Bull slump, while the cushion over the Crew is a bit more comfortable.Montreal's win over the Union makes dropping to Fifth much less likely, avoiding an Away single game elimination.The Impact win also put pressure on DC, who has to win both games in hand now to stay just ahead of them.
Looking West, the LAFC tie dropped them from just above to just below NYC, and the Dallas draw with Columbus made catching them a bit easier as well. Still, passing FCD or SKC will be tough and if NYC turns itself around and makes a run to the MLS Cup final, the game might very well be in the Central Time Zone.
Finally, here is how NYCFC can clinch by beating Montreal this week. NYC has already clinched ahead of TFC, CHI, and ORL. If NYC wins that's 52 points. A corresponding Montreal loss drops their max to 51. That's four. New England's max is 52, but even if they get that by winning all of their remaining games, they will only have 14 wins while NYC will have 15 with the win over the Impact and total wins is the first tie-breaker. That puts NYCFC ahead of 5 teams no matter what and that is a clinch.
While standing still, NYC gained a little ground looking both up and down at Red Bulls and Columbus. Catching RB would still take a Red Bull slump, while the cushion over the Crew is a bit more comfortable.Montreal's win over the Union makes dropping to Fifth much less likely, avoiding an Away single game elimination.The Impact win also put pressure on DC, who has to win both games in hand now to stay just ahead of them.
Looking West, the LAFC tie dropped them from just above to just below NYC, and the Dallas draw with Columbus made catching them a bit easier as well. Still, passing FCD or SKC will be tough and if NYC turns itself around and makes a run to the MLS Cup final, the game might very well be in the Central Time Zone.
Finally, here is how NYCFC can clinch by beating Montreal this week. NYC has already clinched ahead of TFC, CHI, and ORL. If NYC wins that's 52 points. A corresponding Montreal loss drops their max to 51. That's four. New England's max is 52, but even if they get that by winning all of their remaining games, they will only have 14 wins while NYC will have 15 with the win over the Impact and total wins is the first tie-breaker. That puts NYCFC ahead of 5 teams no matter what and that is a clinch.
NYCFC's PPG before the Vieira to Arsenal rumor 2.43
NYCFC's PPG since
- the Arsenal rumor 1.43
- the Nice rumor 1.53
- Dome took over 1.47
- Eloi first took the field 0.60
NYCFC's PPG since
- the Arsenal rumor 1.43
- the Nice rumor 1.53
- Dome took over 1.47
- Eloi first took the field 0.60
I wish I could like this 10 times. Perfectly shows how the team has fallen off the wagon.
In 9 games, the team PPG has gone down by 0.38. The projected final point total went down by 13.
But I thought Vieira said the team wasn’t distracted?!?
So, it’s the media we have to blame! Fake News literally destroyed this team.
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