2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

[Gotham Gator]

And a note on schedule.

Right now, we have a game in hand on Atlanta, and New Jersey has a game in hand on us and two on Atlanta. Atlanta are off this weekend, so that will help even things up. Then, we play the Red Bulls on the 22nd, and then have the weekend off while Atlanta and New Jersey play. So, on August 26, the teams will all be level on games played.

But, that won't last long. New Jersey will then have another double game week (they will be in the midst of 5 games in 14 days), so they will be ahead of the other teams. Then, we have a double game week during an international break when the other two teams don't play. Then Atlanta has one, and things trade off from there. Long story short, things don't even up for good until we have the weekend of October 6 off, at which point all 3 teams will be on 32 games.

 

[Shwafta]

And a note on schedule.

Right now, we have a game in hand on Atlanta, and New Jersey has a game in hand on us and two on Atlanta. Atlanta are off this weekend, so that will help even things up. Then, we play the Red Bulls on the 22nd, and then have the weekend off while Atlanta and New Jersey play. So, on August 26, the teams will all be level on games played.

But, that won't last long. New Jersey will then have another double game week (they will be in the midst of 5 games in 14 days), so they will be ahead of the other teams. Then, we have a double game week during an international break when the other two teams don't play. Then Atlanta has one, and things trade off from there. Long story short, things don't even up for good until we have the weekend of October 6 off, at which point all 3 teams will be on 32 games.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

We’re not Atlanta or LA Galaxy, the league office would never allow that for us.

You mean “we’d never spend the money required to make that happen”.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Analysis of the Supporters' Shield race.

http://americansoccernow.com/articles/down-the-stretch-they-come-inside-the-2018-mls-shield-race

 

[SoupInNYC]

This is the first time that NJ, Atlanta, and NYC have the opportunity to clinch finishing above certain teams.

If the Fire lose, they can only finish the season with 47 points, so Atlanta would be ahead, and a NJ or NYC win/draw would keep them in front.

Orlando is approaching this mark as well, but is idle this weekend, and TFC is on the brink.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Schedule here on out. We are now about even in remaining strength of schedule with New Jersey. Atlanta has easier opponents, but has more games on the road.

The Red Bulls are about to start a stretch of 5 games in 14 days that could define their season.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Schedule here on out. We are now about even in remaining strength of schedule with New Jersey. Atlanta has easier opponents, but has more games on the road.

The Red Bulls are about to start a stretch of 5 games in 14 days that could define their season.

View attachment 9033

The problem is, Atlanta's road games are pretty easy, and their road form is better than their home form (average 2.09 PPRG vs 1.92 PPHG):

• Orlando averages 1.42 PPHG
• DCU averages 2.17 PPHG (this will go down I'm sure as they've only played 6 home games)
• Colorado 1.38
• San Jose 0.70
• NJ 2.33
• TFC 1.27

 

[mgarbowski]

With 70% of the season completed, NYCFC is currently on pace to finish with its highest point total ever, exceeding the previous high by 10 points, and yet attain its lowest place in the standings since its first year.

As additional reference for the pace being kept by the top 3 East teams, remember that last year Toronto ran away with the league at 69 points and was considered at least a respectable candidate for best MLS team ever. Throw in Dallas and this year there is a strong chance of 4 MLS teams with more than 60 points.

Even accounting for H/A splits, DC's remaining schedule is only slight easier than Montreal. Philadelphia's schedule is tough, but they have a bit of a cushion. I think Wazza does not experience his first MLS playoff game this year.
In the West, LAFC has the easiest schedule, with only 1 game left against the league's top 6 teams, against whom they are 0-5-3 for 0.43 PPG. I think they will climb higher again in the West .
Gator and Soup handled the schedule info above for the top of the East. To their efforts I would add that Atlanta has 4 straight away games against bottom of the table teams, but it is still 4 straight road games. DC is showing some life, as is Colorado after acquiring Acosta. By the number, though, their only tough game is in Harrison.
Red Bulls have tough road opponents in Vancouver, NYC, Montreal, and Philadelphia. Yes 3 of those teams are middling overall, but the home records are solid. The Philadelphia game is the week before decision day and the Union's last home game, which they might desperately need to make the playoffs. The Red Bulls also play both the Embers and Atlanta, while ATL and NYC are done with each other.
Still, there is no dispute NYC has the toughest remaining schedule of the 3. At 1.55 PPG, the Union have the lowest Home PPG of any of NYC's remaining road opponents. The only real positive is that after the Red Bulls next week, the remaining 4 home opponents are all poor to terrible road teams.

Keep the remaining schedule in mind when looking at this table:


NYCFC can exceed it's best point total even with a severe slump.

This is the first time that NJ, Atlanta, and NYC have the opportunity to clinch finishing above certain teams.

If the Fire lose, they can only finish the season with 47 points, so Atlanta would be ahead, and a NJ or NYC win/draw would keep them in front.

Orlando is approaching this mark as well, but is idle this weekend, and TFC is on the brink.

Here is how I track this:

Apologies for the random team order. Max is the total of a team's points so far plus their possible if they win out. Delta +1 is the difference between a Team's Max and NYC's current total (47) + 1 to eliminate tie scenarios. That represents the points NYC must win and/or that team drop for NYC to clinch. Minimum games is the least number of combined games by NYC and that team for a potential clinch. Bottom line, I reach the same conclusions as Soup right now.

 

[adam]

with 70% of the season completed, NYCFC is currently on pace to finish with its highest point total ever, exceeding the previous high by 10 points, and yet attain its lowest place in the standings since its first year.
View attachment 9035
As additional reference for the pace being kept by the top 3 East teams, remember that last year Toronto ran away with the league at 69 points and was considered at least a respectable candidate for best MLS team ever. Throw in Dallas and this year there is a strong chance of 4 MLS teams with more than 60 points.
View attachment 9036
Even accounting for H/A splits, DC's remaining schedule is only slight easier than Montreal. Philadelphia's schedule is tough, but they have a bit of a cushion. I think Wazza does not experience his first MLS playoff game this year.
In the West, LAFC has the easiest schedule, with only 1 game left against the league's top 6 teams, against whom they are 0-5-3 for 0.43 PPG. I think they will climb higher again in the West .
Gator and Soup handled the schedule info above for the top of the East. To their efforts I would add that Atlanta has 4 straight away games against bottom of the table teams, but it is still 4 straight road games. DC is showing some life, as is Colorado after acquiring Acosta. By the number, though, their only tough game is in Harrison.
Red Bulls have tough road opponents in Vancouver, NYC, Montreal, and Philadelphia. Yes 3 of those teams are middling overall, but the home records are solid. The Philadelphia game is the week before decision day and the Union's last home game, which they might desperately need to make the playoffs. The Red Bulls also play both the Embers and Atlanta, while ATL and NYC are done with each other.
Still, there is no dispute NYC has the toughest remaining schedule of the 3. At 1.55 PPG, the Union have the lowest Home PPG of any of NYC's remaining road opponents. The only real positive is that after the Red Bulls next week, the remaining 4 home opponents are all poor to terrible road teams.

Keep the remaining schedule in mind when looking at this table:
View attachment 9037

NYCFC can exceed it's best point total even a severe slump.


Here is how I track this:
View attachment 9039
Apologies for the random team order. Max is the total of a team's points so far plus their possible if they win out. Delta +1 is the difference between a Team's Max and NYC's current total (47) + 1 to eliminate tie scenarios. That represents the points NYC must win and/or that team drop for NYC to clinch. Minimum games is the least number of combined games by NYC and that team for a potential clinch. Bottom line, I reach the same conclusions as Soup right now.


View attachment 9038

I’m not going to say it this year, but you know what’s coming.

 

[mgarbowski]

I’m not going to say it this year, but you know what’s coming.

You're not going to say it again this year, that is.

 

[Shwafta]

You're not going to say it again this year, that is.

Do you know where he said it last year? ohoho

 

[adam]

Do you know where he said it last year? ohoho

Notice on the total points graph how the red line makes a hard right turn right around match #30? Yeah, so um I’m sorry about that.

 

[mgarbowski]

Do you know where he said it last year? ohoho

http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...nd-the-quest-for-everything.6182/#post-244822

But you still hold the record for worst shoutbox jinx. Just count yourself lucky there's no permanent record of it.

 

[Shwafta]

http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?th...nd-the-quest-for-everything.6182/#post-244822

But you still hold the record for worst shoutbox jinx. Just count yourself lucky there's no permanent record of it.

I take pride in my failures But I also take pride in seeing others' too

 

[SoupInNYC]

Going through some scheduling and home/away performances to date, I found some interesting items:

• Both LA teams have earned exactly 1.33 PPRG, but have gotten there in different ways (LAG 4-4-4, LAFC 5-6-1)
• NYCFC plays at DCU at the end of a 7-game homestand for DCU. I knew there would be a significant run of home games for DCU, but guess I didn't expect 7 in a row
• I've seen much commentary online (not here) about Yankee Stadium and how ridiculous it is, and you can tell by looking at NYCFC's home record vs away. And while there can be many legitimate gripes about YS, I wouldn't point to our home record vs away record as proof of that. We are earning 2.67 PPHG vs 1.25 PPRG, which is a decent difference, but consider:
  • RSL 2.31 PPHG vs 0.45 PPRG
  • Minnesota 1.92 PPHG vs 0.36 PPRG
  • I'm not going to really consider DCU for this at the moment as I believe they're a bit of an outlier
  • Also, Atlanta is the only team to earn more PPG on the road than at home
• Looking at upcoming home/away schedules, it wouldn't surprise me to see LAG miss the playoffs. And its not out of the question for DCU to make the playoffs (though again, I think their home form PPG comes down a bit)

 

[LionNYC]

From now until October 28, it's going to be nuts. From PlayoffStatus.com

 

[canchon]

From now until October 28, it's going to be nuts. From PlayoffStatus.com

View attachment 9061

So this basically says, we lose this weekend and RBNJ & ATL win and NYCFC is locked into the third seed.

 

[canchon]

Also, on the bright side, win tomorrow and NYCFC finishes a stretch of 4 out of 5 on the road with 3-1-1. We’d all have signed up for that at the beginning of this five game stretch, for as putrid as the team has looked lately.

 

[LionNYC]

I'm going to avoid looking at this thread for a while...

 

[mgarbowski]

I wrote a couple of involved posts yesterday and so don't feel like going on here. If you missed them they are here and here. So I'm just going to drop the charts and graph and then some quick hits, mostly on other clubs.





First, the NYCFC notes: the graphs show that the 2018 lines have dipped down to meet the 2017 lines on a couple of graphs, but 2018 still has a slight lead with 47 points through 25 games compared to 46 last year. Also, in 2017, games 25-27 were the high point. After a solid but unspectacular start, the 2017 team won 8 of 11 games from game 15 to 25, then had a draw (away at RBA) and a win (home against SKC in the rain), then won only once in the last 7 chances.
Turning to our rivals, the chart immediately above shows that although the schedule timing is skewed, the Red Bulls and Atlanta have perfectly matched point totals starting with game 21 for each team and this has maintained through game 24, with Atlanta winning a game 25 the Red Bulls haven't played yet. Just a reminder that the win we so desperately want this week Atlanta fans probably will likely be rooting for NYC in the derby if they cannot get their preferred draw.
DC has already made it closer sooner than I expected, with the one big win -- based on strength of opponent -- over Portland midweek, and another big win -- based on rival for the playoff spot -- over New England last night. I'm sticking with my prediction that DC does not make it though right it looks like I will be wrong. Their biggest issue could be having games stacked on top of games. From the end of July through mid-October they average a double game week about every other week with one international break mixed in. Last year Atlanta stumbled near the end of a similar schedule.Still, they are in solid shape.
Looking West, and speaking of Portland, after not losing for 15 games they have lost 3 straight, while the once stumbling SKC has won 3 straight. Seattle have climbed over the playoff line based on PPG if not actual standings, and are the latest flavor of the week in that conference. Meanwhile Dallas just keep churning and staying on on top, with only 5 losses and quality wins over LAFC, Atlanta, and SKC.