2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
I think we are nearing the uncomfortable position of deciding whether we want to match up with Columbus or DC United in the playoffs - and if so, whether to root for Philly or RBNJ in Sunday's game.
I'd take CLB over DCU or PHI at home in a heartbeat based on current form. We have to root for NJ if we don't earn points in DC, or we could be playing an away match and then I don't think we have a shot versus any of those 3.
We do not want to play DC under any circumstances- they are the hands-down hottest team in the league since Rooney joined up having turned around a 2-win record to now have 12 while climbing into playoff contention.
Over the last 7 games, DC has 17 points, which is best in the league.
Over the last 12 games, DC has 26 points, which is second to Seattle (30) and tied with Philly and Atlanta.
DC only has 1 road win this season...in May...against 2018 Wooden Spoon San Jose. They've been good at home, and only at home.
DC has played only 4 Away games since Rooney showed up and they have not won any of them. They last won a road game in May, against San Jose, which barely counts. That was in fact their only road win. Of course almost all their road games were pre-Rooney, but the fact they they are winless even in just 4 games since he got here plus that they have played so few, gives me hope that their prowess and comfort at home won't travel. Hell, if I had even a little confidence that NYCFC could score a first half goal I would take on DC with no hesitation. Punch them in the nose early away from their new stadium and fans and I expect they fade. But even at its best NYC didn't score a lot early this year, so it's a concern, but I still think DC has to prove it can succeed away from Audi Field.
Now, comparison time:
DC is 9-2-3 for 30 points in its last 14 games, playing 11 Home 3 Away.
Philadelphia is 9-3-2 for 29 points in its last 14 games, playing 6 Home 8 Away.
The Union second half is much more impressive than that of DC, especially when judging how they will do in a road knockout game. DC won just 1 additional point while playing 5 more Home games. It's really not close. DC is getting all the attention but Philly is killing it over the same time period and getting comparatively no love. The Union even won at Audi Field.
No team in the East is hotter than Philly since July. I don't want any part of Philadelphia, Home or Away.
I have nothing substantive or rational to say about the Crew except I fear the scary positive voodoo karma of the suddenly rejuvenated staying-in-Columbus Crew. ETA: who also are playing for one last hurrah for a coach leaving to become USMNT skipper. Really, this is a made-for-TV movie. Stay far away.
Bottom line, give me DC, as long as we play at Yankee Stadium.
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To add to that, DC would be playing its 5th game in a 19 day span. Yeah, they have next week off, but that's got to add a bit of extra fatigue to those legs.
Further, I would not assume Philly hosts a home game, finishing ahead of Columbus. As much as I just showed love for the Union, the Crew's last 2 games are at Orlando and home to Minnesota. It's as close to guaranteed 6 points as I can imagine, absent maybe subbing SJ for Minnesota. If the Crew get those 6, then DC cannot catch them, and the Union needs 4 to finish tied (and Philly wins the tiebreakers). One Union loss puts them behind the Crew if the Crew get those easy 6. Philly can lose to the Red Bulls; hell, they can lose at YS to NYC. And the Crew can finish ahead of us. We can play any one of these 3 teams in the first round, and it could be home or away.
All three of those teams are gonna be monsters with voodoo reasons pushing them to win. We are currently the shitty team looking in from outside even though we’re currently higher in the standing. I’m not gonna be surprised if we get steamrolled by any of the three - I think we’re still in free-fall.
And NYC doesn't have a reason pushing them to win?
Columbus in its last five games are averaging 1.00 ppg. The exact same as NYC.
Yeah, Philly and DC have been playing well lately, but I don't see how we are applying the same logic to the Crew that we are to Philly and DC.
Columbus has added incentive of the SaveCrew success and a last hurrah for their coach. That’s some serious voodoo.
NYCFC has previously had the CCL to play for and separately the 1st round bye, and even with those incentives the club has looked like a JV POS and not delivered. The “playoffs” don’t give NYCFC any more incentive than the other teams.
For me, we’ve shot our wad on voodoo items and we’re on the outside looking in.
NYC clinch 3rd place with a win or a tie against Philly. Our opponent would be the 6th seed, which could be any of Philly, DC, Columbus or Montreal.
If NYC lose, then the best we can do is 4th.
If NYC lose, and DC wins at Chicago, then the Pigeons fall to 5th and play at DC, who will end up in 4th.
- Columbus loses the tiebreaker to each of the other 3 teams. So, even with a win over Minnesota, they will stay behind Philly and DC and finish 6th if those teams tie or win.
- Columbus also has to win to guarantee a playoff spot. If they tie or lose and Montreal wins over New England, then the Impact finish in 6th. If Columbus ties or loses but Montreal does the same, the Crew finish 6th.
- If NYC beat Philly, and DC at least tie at Chicago, and Columbus beats Minnesota, then the Pigeons and the Union do it all again mid-week.
- If DC lose at Chicago and Columbus beat Minnesota, then DC finish 6th.
If NYC lose, then the best we can do is 4th.
If NYC lose, and DC wins at Chicago, then the Pigeons fall to 5th and play at DC, who will end up in 4th.
If we draw and DCU wins, we avoid both DCU and PHI in the 1st round. But if we go in looking like we're playing for that draw I might throw up.
Putting this in as a note for comparison later on. ASA has not yet updated their playoff seeding odds with last week's results. Through Oct 14 they had NYCFC at
3rd - 73%, 4th 24%, 5th 2%, 6th 1%. I'm curious to see how that changes when they update.
Also, an oddity note: 538 predicts 55 points for NYCFC, which is the only number in the range of 53-56 that NYCFC cannot possibly achieve. But I take it to mean they think a win is the most likely result, but not enough of a certainty to add 3 points.
3rd - 73%, 4th 24%, 5th 2%, 6th 1%. I'm curious to see how that changes when they update.
Also, an oddity note: 538 predicts 55 points for NYCFC, which is the only number in the range of 53-56 that NYCFC cannot possibly achieve. But I take it to mean they think a win is the most likely result, but not enough of a certainty to add 3 points.
NYCFC is 2-6-4 for 10 points in its last 12 games, starting with the loss in Seattle.
This is NYCFC's worst 12 game stretch since the 11-game winless streak from games 3-13 in 2015. You cannot even find 12 games this bad in the second half of 2015. This roster is so much better than that. This is a disastrous, more-than-epic meltdown.
This is NYCFC's worst 12 game stretch since the 11-game winless streak from games 3-13 in 2015. You cannot even find 12 games this bad in the second half of 2015. This roster is so much better than that. This is a disastrous, more-than-epic meltdown.
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