2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

[Gotham Gator]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1019500162438266880

I think Dallas deserves a mention here too.

Interesting stuff. 2 of 3 occurred in last 4 years. 3-4 teams with legit shot this year.

More signs that parity decreasing in MLS after a 20 year reign.

NYCFC need 8 wins in 14 to get there. Atlanta 8 in 13. New Jersey 9 in 16. Dallas 9 in 15. LAFC 10 in 15.

 

[Shwafta]

8 in 14 sounds quite doable, especially with the run of form we're currently in.

 

[mgarbowski]

NYCFC did not play but just about all the other teams we care about did. The top 3 other teams in the East won, though we barely worry about Columbus any more. In the West, Dallas earned a tough road point in Houston, Portland dropped 2 points at home and LAFC dropped 3 in spectacular fashion in Minnesota.
The net result is the East has a 3-way tie on PPG, though NYC can leapfrog Atlanta if it wins its 2 extra games, and RB can leapfrog both if they win all their extra games. All three East leaders have a better PPG than anybody in the West, but after that the West exceeds the East. Compare the East playoff line of 43-44 to the 48-49 projected in the West. This is a major reversal from this time last year, when the 5th place East team had a better PPG than the 2nd place West team. In fact, this time last year, the East won every same place matchup from 1st through 9th. Right now, the West wins 4th through 9th. The 3 best teams are in the East, but it gets real thin after that. There are probably 2 playoff spots in play after Columbus in the East.
That makes it hard to start dropping teams from contention in the East. If anything, DC might force their way onto my chart if they can make a run based on all their home games, though Rooney's going to have to stop giving the ball away. Philly can't put the ball in the net. The Revs still can't win on the road. Toronto are getting players back but have a lot of teams to climb over.
In the West, Minnesota just climbed to within one win from the playoff line with 4 wins in 5, including a a 3 win week like NYC just had. But they now get 6 of the next 7 away before enjoying 5 of the last 7 at home. The Galaxy have quietly solidified a playoff claim with no losses since May. Portland has not lost since April. Barring a collapse by one of those teams, RSL, Houston, Minnesota, arguably Vancouver and charitably Seattle are fighting over one spot.

 

[Gotham Gator]

 

[LionNYC]

View attachment 8936

That Atlanta-New Jersey game with three games left in the season following is going to be interesting, I guess draw is the best result now without know how the games before unfold.

I do think that DC will be good at home the remainder of the reason. NYCFC and Atlanta plays them once, New Jersey plays them twice.

 

[mgarbowski]

A sad milestone. I dropped the top line from the chart showing sample finishes and total points. It was 78. NYC could potentially finish 12-0-0 and get 79 points, but that's neither likely nor something for which you need my chart. The plus is the chart had been sitting with a top line that had zero losses for a while without forcing my hand:


There's now little room to falter and reach 70, though there are possibilities I don't show. Nine wins and 1 or 2 losses get to that marker.

Over in the Interconference play thread you can see that the West is winning those contests by a bit. The east has a combined higher PPG because the East teams draw less often against each other and that pushes their PPG slightly ahead.
On this chart Toronto just needs to pass 2 teams to make the playoffs, but the gap between Toronto and those teams is substantial. Assuming neither of those teams improves by much, Toronto needs 44-45 points to jump ahead of them. To get 45, TFC needs 23 points in its last 13 games. That would mean, for example, winning at least 6 of their final 7 home games (18 points) and winning 2 of 6 Away for 46 points. But Toronto's has a very tough schedule. It includes hosting Atlanta, NYCFC, and both LA teams plus Away at Atlanta, Portland, Red Bulls, DC, and Montreal, all excellent home teams. That leaves only 4 relatively easy games Away at San Jose, and home to Montreal, New England, and Vancouver. 2017 Toronto could handle that. 2018 Toronto will earn its way in if it manages to do so.

Four straight wins means even a disappointing loss does not push the lines uncomfortably close above any prior seasons.

 

[LionNYC]

12 games left.
Favored to win 9.
Even on 1
Unfavored on 2.

 

[SoupInNYC]

12 games left.
Favored to win 9.
Even on 1
Unfavored on 2.
View attachment 8985

I think this meets the smell test. Though Minnesota are really tough at home this year for some reason.

 

[Gotham Gator]

12 games left.
Favored to win 9.
Even on 1
Unfavored on 2.
View attachment 8985

Surprised we are such heavy favorites against New Jersey.

Of course, the above doesn't translate into a finish of 9-2-1.* The odds are tight in a few of those games where we are favored, and the tie rate this year is 21.5%, which implies 2, maybe 3 ties down the road.

Long story short - 538 estimates we finish 6-3-3 to finish with 65 points, 2 behind Atlanta and 1 ahead of New Jersey.

* - not that you were implying that; just pointing it out.

 

[adam]

Surprised we are such heavy favorites against New Jersey.

Of course, the above doesn't translate into a finish of 9-2-1.* The odds are tight in a few of those games where we are favored, and the tie rate this year is 21.5%, which implies 2, maybe 3 ties down the road.

Long story short - 538 estimates we finish 6-3-3 to finish with 65 points, 2 behind Atlanta and 1 ahead of New Jersey.

* - not that you were implying that; just pointing it out.

If that’s the case we may win CCL spot based on wins tiebreaker before the GD comes into play.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Updated analysis of remaining schedule.

PR is this week’s Power Ranking on the MLS web site.

 

[LionNYC]

Updated analysis of remaining schedule.

PR is this week’s Power Ranking on the MLS web site.

View attachment 8987

Again, you look at those last seven games and I’m not accounting for scheduling, but those are all very winnable games.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Updated analysis of remaining schedule.

PR is this week’s Power Ranking on the MLS web site.

View attachment 8987

And taking into consideration home/away form of each team:

 

[LionNYC]

And taking into consideration home/away form of each team:

View attachment 8988

View attachment 8990

View attachment 8991

One way I do see us overtaking Atlanta is that Tata beings to rest his players during the final matches of the season as last year they had very tired legs come the playoffs.

 

[413Blue]

One way I do see us overtaking Atlanta is that Tata beings to rest his players during the final matches of the season as last year they had very tired legs come the playoffs.

And due to the midseason injuries, we may not be pressured to do the same with key players like Villa, Chanot, Berget and Mata if he ever gets match fit again.

 

[mgarbowski]

Comparing the 538 odds that LionNYC posted with the opponents' H/A ppg that SoupInNYC posted, and I think that 538 overweights their SPI ranking and underweights actual H/A performance. They have NYC as an underdog to only Columbus and Toronto, who are the highest ranked teams on their list that we face away. But Toronto has the lowest home PPG of all the teams we have left Away.
It's not that I think the Toronto game will be easy. Rather I think all of NYC's remaining Away games will be tough. The mediocre teams we play away all have solid home records.

 

[mgarbowski]

Four points from 9 (or worse) might be a good official definition of a slump for good MLS teams. The travel schedule between the 2 road games a week ago was hideous, but the easier game was first, and it was reasonable to expect at least 6 points from this set of 3 games. The race with Atlanta and Red Bulls has no room for bad results. Nobody needs the charts to know that but here they are:




Next week i might go ahead and add DC into the East line graph for maximum chaos. Their line should rise though I don't think they will make the playoffs. DC has 3 Away games left, against NYCFC, RB, and Chicago. Do they get 3 points?. That gives them 21 with the 18 they have. Figure they need 44 to ensure a playoff spot. That means they need 23 points in their 12 home games. Their Home opponents include Portland, Atlanta, Red Bulls, Dallas, Toronto, and NYCFC. Let's give them 9 points from those 6 games, which I think could be generous. That means they need another 14 from the other 6 games, which requires 4-0-2 or better. They're not that good to manage all of those pieces and not slip somewhere.

Back to NYCFC, the draw with Vancouver means the Pretty Pineapples started the season 5-1-0 against the West (3H3A), and then went 1-2-2 (2H3A) in the next 5. One game, away at Minnesota remains. Remember that NYC is playing an imbalanced H/A schedule against the West to offset having the extra home games against both Orlando and Red Bulls.

Finally, I mentioned in the postgame thread that Villa's absence meant the team has now had one DP miss at least 10 games in every season to date. This is, however, easily the best season in terms of DP playing time (and I would argue performance based on the eye test and such).
In 2015, Lampard was late and missed games after he did show, Pirlo did not sign until July, and Villa missed a small handful of games. In 2016 Lampard missed the first 12, then another 3 later on in the season, while Villa and Pirlo missed a combined 3 games. Last year, Pirlo played only 15 missing 19, largely due to coach decisions, while Villa missed 3 and Maxi 5. This year, Maxi and Medina have played every game to date, though Medina had low minutes early on. Here is the average number of DPs to play in each game year to year:
2015 1.56
2016 2.47
2017 2.26
2018 2.57

 

[adam]

Four points from 9 (or worse) might be a good official definition of a slump for good MLS teams. The travel schedule between the 2 road games a week ago was hideous, but the easier game was first, and it was reasonable to expect at least 6 points from this set of 3 games. The race with Atlanta and Red Bulls has no room for bad results. Nobody needs the charts to know that but here they are:
View attachment 9008
View attachment 9009
View attachment 9010
View attachment 9011
Next week i might go ahead and add DC into the East line graph for maximum chaos. Their line should rise though I don't think they will make the playoffs. DC has 3 Away games left, against NYCFC, RB, and Chicago. Do they get 3 points?. That gives them 21 with the 18 they have. Figure they need 44 to ensure a playoff spot. That means they need 23 points in their 12 home games. Their Home opponents include Portland, Atlanta, Red Bulls, Dallas, Toronto, and NYCFC. Let's give them 9 points from those 6 games, which I think could be generous. That means they need another 14 from the other 6 games, which requires 4-0-2 or better. They're not that good to manage all of those pieces and not slip somewhere.

Back to NYCFC, the draw with Vancouver means the Pretty Pineapples started the season 5-1-0 against the West (3H3A), and then went 1-2-2 (2H3A) in the next 5. One game, away at Minnesota remains. Remember that NYC is playing an imbalanced H/A schedule against the West to offset having the extra home games against both Orlando and Red Bulls.

Finally, I mentioned in the postgame thread that Villa's absence meant the team has now had one DP miss at least 10 games in every season to date. This is, however, easily the best season in terms of DP playing time (and I would argue performance based on the eye test and such).
In 2015, Lampard was late and missed games after he did show, Pirlo did not sign until July, and Villa missed a small handful of games. In 2016 Lampard missed the first 12, then another 3 later on in the season, while Villa and Pirlo missed a combined 3 games. Last year, Pirlo played only 15 missing 19, largely due to coach decisions, while Villa missed 3 and Maxi 5. This year, Maxi and Medina have played every game to date, though Medina had low minutes early on. Here is the average number of DPs to play in each game year to year:
2015 1.56
2016 2.47
2017 2.26
2018 2.57

Just thinking out loud where. If Villa is not a DP next year and Medina also is moved to some type of *AM deal, maybe we can have 3 DPs who play a majority of the time in 2019...

 

[LionNYC]

Just thinking out loud where. If Villa is not a DP next year and Medina also is moved to some type of *AM deal, maybe we can have 3 DPs who play a majority of the time in 2019...

We’re not Atlanta or LA Galaxy, the league office would never allow that for us.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Atlanta’s schedule advantage is becoming more apparent this week. While points per game of remaining opponents is pretty even, the average Power Ranking for Atlanta’s opponents is substantially lower than for NYC and NJ.

Worth noting that the closing run for all three teams is pretty manageable. The only games any play against Top 10 Power Ranking teams - other than against each other - are NYC and Atlanta against #9 Columbus.

This is going to be an exercise in holding serve against teams you should beat.