This brings an interesting question: are you ok with waiting till the summer to bring in a big name DP?
2019 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter LionNYC
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You still believe CFG will spend on a big name DP?
Yes if he's awesome and announced during the winter window.
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Attracting fans through winning is the right path, but you're throwing a big name out there and he would definitely be the type of player to boost attendance.
Let's look at it a different way though with the current MVP. Unless someone followed Super League or more so Serie A, nobody would know of Josef Martinez. That being said, take him out of Atlanta and put him on NYCFC. What does that do to our attendance? I don't think it moves the needle that much tbh. Not sure what that means exactly but NYC is a different animal. I think it will take a lot to reverse the downward trend in true attendance numbers.
I don't think it has much to do with the market, but the entire product as a whole. Atlanta did everything perfect with the launch, caught fire and kept things rolling. We had a partially botched launch, followed by blunders and other shortcomings and couldn't retain our initial buzz. The players themselves play a factor, but only if the club capitalized on it.
Yes. We can, hopefully, trend water with a good TAM level player. Then superstar DP comes in and we go wild.
One Vegas book puts us 4th favorite to win MLS Cup at 9-1 odds. That's a stupid bet right now.
I'd be fine with this but with the way people have been bitching about the club lately I don't think it'll go over well with the fanbase.
Let’s use Giroud as the example. He’s moving on this summer. Would people here be ok with a Giroud announcement that he will be joining in July?
I wanted to offer a FIFY and strikethrough the "and announced during the winter window" but I lack the technical skills for strikethrough.
It is rare for summer signings to announce in winter. Not unheard of but rare. If we get to the end of the winter window with no new DP I'm going to assume there is a big summer target and wait to be proven wrong.
I know there are many here who will assume the opposite. CFG is never spending here again. No commitment. Etc etc.
I just don't think we have the data either way. And given that we don't really know, I'll choose the happier expectations over the doom and gloom.
Wait- they put DC at 10th? No way. They're easily going to be 3rd best in the conference behind RB and ATL this year.
First, when I saw the alert that you quoted my post I guessed this would be exactly your point.
But my concern is not so much they don't want to spend but that they don't get their guy.
If they wait until summer that means they're almost certainly going after players currently in Europe. Further, the targets are more likely to be established, at best in their prime but on the downslope (31-34), and 90% chance they are out of contract (because if an MLS team does pay a fee it makes more sense to get a rising player from the Americas than mid to later career from Europe).
How many first team strikers are there in that cohort in any given year? My semi-educated guess is 1-5 at most -- if that many even -- especially if you exclude the players past their prime. Because generally teams don't let stud scorers reach the end of contract without extending or selling. If there is someone in that group that NYCFC wants, then make the deal as soon as possible. We have to be talking to that guy's reps right now, in December and January. If they are saying "not now, he does not want to commit, he will decide in the summer," then we are making a huge bet that he'll sign in July. And if he doesn't there is no net, and we'll probably end up with some washed up 36 year old and relive the Pirlo experience for the next 2.5 years.
I get what you are saying, but I also think we are unduly scarred by Pirlo. Remember, Villa was also a summer signing. He just spent his first 6 months in Australia.
Also, glad to know I'm predictable.
I still need to see DC win a road game or two before I anoint them a top finisher. They had 5 chances after Rooney showed up and won zero. There's also no guarantee they have as much home success. I expect them to be good. And they could finish in the top 3 and even win the conference, but I'm not sold yet. Still, I do agree that at 16-1 they are one of the better plays on that board.
Plus, regarding your 1-2, I expect either Atlanta or the Red Bulls to have an inexplicable slump this year because MLS.
ETA: Setting these odds or worse, placing a bet on MLS Cup right now, before we know if Almiron or Adams are definitely leaving, and how LAG solves their 4 DP situation, and who teams like NYC sign, is nuts. And that's the main reason I end up liking the DC bet. They are basically a complete team right now, and at least capable of winning 3-4 straight games in the playoffs.
Well, if we're counting pre-2015 then so was Lampard.
Among the 3 of them, by my count we got about 5.9 decent or better seasons out of 8.5 contract years, and 3.7 of those were from Villa. Pirlo and Lampard gave us 2.1 decent seasons out of 4.5. The really weird thing about Lampard is his final 6/10ths of a season was the only good part.
So yes maybe we're overly sensitive and scarred by the experience, but the club's record on mid-summer big name European signings is 1 for 3. And this isn't baseball.
hmmm... My thoughts on this are: Getting 3rd in an MLS conference is pretty forgiving, especially in recent years in the Eastern Conference. We barely won any away games this year and managed 3rd place, so I can see DC doing something similar.
And yes, that's why I'm saying currently I see them as being very good, bc they are one of the few teams that don't have holes, and have so far made some solid signings imo.
Also not much difference being 2 or 3 in the playoffs this season. Roughly same advantage/disadvantage.
There is still an advantage to 2, but it is less than in the past. ASA ran the math.
https://www.americansocceranalysis....e-new-mls-playoff-format-rewards-the-top-seed
I think the article understates the value of finishing second under the new system in the text, and focuses too much on the fact that the gap between 2 and 3 has gotten smaller. It has gotten smaller by a meaningful amount, but the difference also is still meaningful.
