Expansion Rumors Megathread

[Fantazma]

Far too often I think people apply traditional North American sports thinking to MLS and sometimes you just can't.

1) MLS clubs can win Conference titles, MLS Cup, US Open/Canada Championships, Supporters Shield, Champions League.... and probably even more trophies going forward (Anglo-American Cup, SuperLiga are both on the radar). So there's a lot of trophies for teams to win between winning MLS cups and I think that will sustain fanbases nicely. We saw Philadelphia nearly win MLS Cup. RSL and Montreal nearly won Champions League. The fanbases showed strong support of both of those competitions.

i disagree...only MLS/ US open cup/ concacaf champions league excited people ( man would say two of those three dont but should) anything else is more like friendly/ preseason cup so not many people care.

heck, look at all the "rivalry cups" that exist. outside the cascadia cup...are people really excited to have won the "cup" no. they are excited and happy to beat your rival in each game not that you won a "cup".

 

[BossNYC]

i disagree...only MLS/ US open cup/ concacaf champions league excited people ( man would say two of those three dont but should) anything else is more like friendly/ preseason cup so not many people care.

heck, look at all the "rivalry cups" that exist. outside the cascadia cup...are people really excited to have won the "cup" no. they are excited and happy to beat your rival in each game not that you won a "cup".

I disagree.

I think SS is important to fans. I always want my team to have the best record in the league at the end of the regular season in other sports. Even when you don't get a trophy. The fact that MLS actually awards a trophy for it makes it that much more meaningful.

But even if we don't count that trophy, we agree that there's 2 other trophies of significance for clubs to chase besides MLS Cups. There's CCL spots as well. Playoff spots. Like I said before, Philly didn't make the playoffs the last two years but still reached the US Open cup final both years and that energized the fanbase.

There's plenty to keep fanbases engaged in soccer and MLS, in particular. So having a large league, that would be notoriously hard to win, would only be a plus in my eyes.

 

[BossNYC]

The comparison of English cities to American cities is worthless because English soccer teams don't compete with four other sports with larger fanbases and more money. Cincinnati is 1.6 million urban area, and they already have two professional sports teams. You're just not likely to get the level of support in an area like that to support a team of the same quality as Seattle or Los Angeles.

New York has 12 clubs across all of it's (major) sports.

London 15 soccer clubs:

London 4 Rugby Clubs:

They also have cricket, I assume.

Either way, they have just as many other clubs sucking up dollars, fans, ect.

 

[BossNYC]

Another thing that's different between MLS and the NFL is that MLS plays more games and has a greater inventory to sell to regional networks who are starting to shell out big money for content.

For instance, the Dodgers make the vast majority of their cash from Regional networks and not national networks which is where all of the NFL cash comes from. We know the Galaxy also get a hefty sum from their local regional network, too.

 

[Fantazma]

I disagree.

I think SS is important to fans. I always want my team to have the best record in the league at the end of the regular season in other sports. Even when you don't get a trophy. The fact that MLS actually awards a trophy for it makes it that much more meaningful.

But even if we don't count that trophy, we agree that there's 2 other trophies of significance for clubs to chase besides MLS Cups. There's CCL spots as well. Playoff spots. Like I said before, Philly didn't make the playoffs the last two years but still reached the US Open cup final both years and that energized the fanbase.

There's plenty to keep fanbases engaged in soccer and MLS, in particular. So having a large league, that would be notoriously hard to win, would only be a plus in my eyes.

agree to disagree, whats the point that the rangers got the presidents trophy when only the stanley cup is what matters, no one remembers the best record unless its or the title or you manage to win the playoffs. i also dont agree with having a 30+ teams. look at argentina they did it and outside of the top 4/5? there was a whole lot of nothing. there was no chance in winning so not much excitement.

i do agree that the US open cup and Concacaf champions league are titles i would want to win or have a deep run in but the US soccer sucks at promoting the US open cup. and apparently some MLS teams done care for the CCL which is sad, if we ever qualify to it i hope the front office/ coaching staff takes it as seriously as possible.

 

[sbrylski]

New York has 12 clubs across all of it's (major) sports.

London 15 soccer clubs:

London 4 Rugby Clubs:

They also have cricket, I assume.

Either way, they have just as many other clubs sucking up dollars, fans, ect.

I'm not sure what metric to go by, but there's no way that soccer in American is to other sports in America as football in England is to other sports in England.

Soccer is, at best, the 5th largest sport in this country. Probably lower, especially when you consider college sports.

Notice how when the NFL moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles, nobody said "but there's already two MLS teams there!" The relative sizes of these sports matter big time. A third NFL team in New York would probably instantly be the third highest supported team in the area. NYCFC has to fight to slot in at 11th.

Point is, existing teams in other sports absolutely matters for the purpose of MLS expansion, due to the relative size of the league's support at this time.

 

[Keith Putnam]

2. Sacramento

Sacramento before San Francisco? There's both a large population and a *lot* of money in the Bay Area / Silicon Valley. I'd think MLS would go for a San Fran team before Sacramento. SF is also a much more "international" city.

 

[BossNYC]

I'm not sure what metric to go by, but there's no way that soccer in American is to other sports in America as football in England is to other sports in England.

Soccer is, at best, the 5th largest sport in this country. Probably lower, especially when you consider college sports.

Notice how when the NFL moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles, nobody said "but there's already two MLS teams there!" The relative sizes of these sports matter big time. A third NFL team in New York would probably instantly be the third highest supported team in the area. NYCFC has to fight to slot in at 11th.

Point is, existing teams in other sports absolutely matters for the purpose of MLS expansion, due to the relative size of the league's support at this time.

Fair points but the league's growing at a rapid rate.

1994, Genesis
1999, the first soccer specific stadium opened.
2002, MLS had to fold 2 clubs.
2006, MLS was still paying networks to air their games.
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2007, MLS got it's first rights-fee TV contract, $8 million a year. First DP signed.
2010, NYCFC joins MLS paying first $100 million expansion fee
2012, Seattle sells out all 66,452 seats of CenturyLink Field for MLS league match against Portland Timbers.
2015, that contract jumped to ~$90 million a year. Shirt sponsors were paying $55.8 million, $3 million more than the Dutch league. MLS has expanded 12 teams in 10 years.
2016, all MLS teams will feature paying shirt sponsors for the first time. All clubs feature unique ownership for first time.
2018, MLS will get a monster new apparel deal from Adidas/Nike/UA/NB/Puma. (current deal signed in 2010 is for $200 million/year)

The first 13 years of the league's life it just barely existed with money from the gate. That was about it. The last 8 or 9 years absolutely eclipses everything in the first 13. I'd argue the last 5 years eclipses everything from the previous 15.

It's really starting to accelerate now. So to say, "Oh, it's the 5th sport, there's no hope of anything." It's just odd to me. I just hope there's still football (American) at all in 15 years. This brain stuff is serious, serious trouble for football.

 

[sbrylski]

We already have intra-league pro/rel.

It's called the playoffs.

I wish they had a group stage for the MLS Cup Playoffs, to make it feel like a postseason league competition. Knockout tournaments are so bland.

 

[sbrylski]

Sacramento before San Francisco? There's both a large population and a *lot* of money in the Bay Area / Silicon Valley. I'd think MLS would go for a San Fran team before Sacramento. SF is also a much more "international" city.

Have you been following expansion rumors closely? Sacramento almost made it instead of Minnesota United. Plus, Garber has essentially said that for Sacramento, it's not "if" but "when."

Sacramento has tremendous attendance, a very well funded investor group, a real stadium plan endorsed by local politicians that could have shovels in the ground in weeks if given the green light from MLS.

By contrast there is no land for a stadium in San Francisco, no investor group, and no movement on attempting to bring an MLS team pretty much ever.

 

[sbrylski]

Fair points but the league's growing at a rapid rate.

1994, Genesis
1999, the first soccer specific stadium opened.
2002, MLS had to fold 2 clubs.
2006, MLS was still paying networks to air their games.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
2007, MLS got it's first rights-fee TV contract, $8 million a year. First DP signed.
2010, NYCFC joins MLS paying first $100 million expansion fee
2012, Seattle sells out all 66,452 seats of CenturyLink Field for MLS league match against Portland Timbers.
2015, that contract jumped to ~$90 million a year. Shirt sponsors were paying $55.8 million, $3 million more than the Dutch league. MLS has expanded 12 teams in 10 years.
2016, all MLS teams will feature paying shirt sponsors for the first time. All clubs feature unique ownership for first time.
2018, MLS will get a monster new apparel deal from Adidas/Nike/UA/NB/Puma. (current deal signed in 2010 is for $200 million/year)

The first 13 years of the league's life it just barely existed with money from the gate. That was about it. The last 8 or 9 years absolutely eclipses everything in the first 13. I'd argue the last 5 years eclipses everything from the previous 15.

It's really starting to accelerate now. So to say, "Oh, it's the 5th sport, there's no hope of anything." It's just odd to me. I just hope there's still football (American) at all in 15 years. This brain stuff is serious, serious trouble for football.

That's not at all what I said. Of course I recognize MLS's amazing growth over the last few years. I actually consider myself extremely optimistic about what the league's future will look like - not only are we growing, but we grow faster and faster each year. We are going to have an extremely legitimate place in the American sports landscape very soon.

But despite all the growth, we aren't there yet. MLS's domestic TV ratings are tiny. Attendence is okay, but at bargain basement ticket prices.

And even when we are unquestionably a member of the Big Five sports or even higher, there's still only so much each market can hold. Why isn't there an NFL team in Portland? An NBA team in Cincinnati? An MLB team in Nashville? Other existing and established leagues have determined that they just won't be able to keep up financially with the rest. Some people still argue that MLB, at 30 teams, should contract back to 28. There's a point when parity becomes unenforceable and the weak drag down the strong.

 

[Keith Putnam]

Have you been following expansion rumors closely? Sacramento almost made it instead of Minnesota United. Plus, Garber has essentially said that for Sacramento, it's not "if" but "when."

Sacramento has tremendous attendance, a very well funded investor group, a real stadium plan endorsed by local politicians that could have shovels in the ground in weeks if given the green light from MLS.

By contrast there is no land for a stadium in San Francisco, no investor group, and no movement on attempting to bring an MLS team pretty much ever.

Fair enough! I stand corrected.

 

[Shawn Ryu]

Sacramento before San Francisco? There's both a large population and a *lot* of money in the Bay Area / Silicon Valley. I'd think MLS would go for a San Fran team before Sacramento. SF is also a much more "international" city.

San Jose is San Francisco team. MLS is either gonna relocate Earthquakes to San Francisco or leave it at. San. Jose but they won't give Bay Area another one.

Sacramento is far enough to be considered a distinct market.

 

[sbrylski]

New prediction because it's fun:

2017 - Atlanta United FC (#21)
2017 - Minnesota United FC (#22; temporary venue in order to enter in groups of two)
2018 - Los Angeles FC (#23)
2018 - Miami United FC (#24; temporary venue)

2020 - Saint Louis FC (#25; Garber mentioned team #25 could play as early as 2020)
2020 - Sacramento Republic FC (#26)

2022 - San Diego Flash (#27; Another city soon to lose it's NFL team, which clearly arouses MLS)
2022 - Detroit City FC (#28; Sorry San Antonio, this round is all about the TV deal next year, and there's more people in Detroit)

*League splits into four conferences of 7

2024 - San Antonio FC (#29; Time to start "promoting" the best USL squads, San Antonio checks all the boxes)
2024 - Charlotte Independence (#30; Another top USL squad in a prime market, maintains east/west expansion balance)

2026 - Arizona United FC (#31; Same pattern of top USL teams in prime markets being promoted)
2026 - Cincinnati FC? (#32; Best USL market remaining and can afford $200+ million expansion fee, such as Louisville/Pittsburgh/OKC/etc.)

Boldest prediction:

2030 - New York Cosmos (#33)
2030 - Miami FC (#34)
2030 - Chicago Sting (#35)
2030 - Indy Eleven (#36)

Throughout the next 12 years, the NASL as a league never truly settles in, but a handful of teams in the league rise to the top. These four in particular have very strong fanbases, soccer-specific stadiums, and rosters of MLS quality.

With the next TV deal set to be negotiated in 2030, MLS takes the opportunity to meaningfully increase their ratings one more time and kill the thorn in their side (the NASL) with one move. They bring in these four on reduced expansion fees and agree to a way overdue reform of the last vestiges of MLS 1.0 single-entity management, which have already been eroded significantly over the decade.

Of the other 14-16 NASL teams, about half join the USL and about half fold.

MLS is now mature at 36 teams organized in four conferences of 9 - playing a double round robin within their conference (16 games) and two of the three other conferences once (18 games) for a 34 game season.

The 4th seed of each conference plays the 5th seed from the conference they haven't played during the regular season in a one-game wildcard round. The winners join the 1st-3rd seeded teams in a group stage (4 groups of 4) with the higher seed always hosting. Top two from each group (8 total) advance to a single-leg knockout tournament for the MLS Cup.

 

[franchise646]

New prediction because it's fun:

2017 - Atlanta United FC (#21)
2017 - Minnesota United FC (#22; temporary venue in order to enter in groups of two)
2018 - Los Angeles FC (#23)
2018 - Miami United FC (#24; temporary venue)

2020 - Saint Louis FC (#25; Garber mentioned team #25 could play as early as 2020)
2020 - Sacramento Republic FC (#26)

2022 - San Diego Flash (#27; Another city soon to lose it's NFL team, which clearly arouses MLS)
2022 - Detroit City FC (#28; Sorry San Antonio, this round is all about the TV deal next year, and there's more people in Detroit)

*League splits into four conferences of 7

2024 - San Antonio FC (#29; Time to start "promoting" the best USL squads, San Antonio checks all the boxes)
2024 - Charlotte Independence (#30; Another top USL squad in a prime market, maintains east/west expansion balance)

2026 - Arizona United FC (#31; Same pattern of top USL teams in prime markets being promoted)
2026 - Cincinnati FC? (#32; Best USL market remaining and can afford $200+ million expansion fee, such as Louisville/Pittsburgh/OKC/etc.)

Boldest prediction:

2030 - New York Cosmos (#33)
2030 - Miami FC (#34)
2030 - Chicago Sting (#35)
2030 - Indy Eleven (#36)

Throughout the next 12 years, the NASL as a league never truly settles in, but a handful of teams in the league rise to the top. These four in particular have very strong fanbases, soccer-specific stadiums, and rosters of MLS quality.

With the next TV deal set to be negotiated in 2030, MLS takes the opportunity to meaningfully increase their ratings one more time and kill the thorn in their side (the NASL) with one move. They bring in these four on reduced expansion fees and agree to a way overdue reform of the last vestiges of MLS 1.0 single-entity management, which have already been eroded significantly over the decade.

Of the other 14 NASL teams, about half join the USL and about half fold.

MLS is now mature at 36 teams organized in four conferences of 9 - playing a double round robin within their conference (16 games) and two of the three other conferences once (18 games) for a 34 game season.

The 4th seed of each conference plays the 5th seed from the conference they haven't played during the regular season in a one-game wildcard round. The winners join the 1st-3rd seeded teams in a group stage (4 groups of 4) with the higher seed always hosting. Top two from each group (8 total) advance to a single-leg knockout tournament for the MLS Cup.

the Miami team won't be allowed to call themselves united because there is a team in Miami call Miami United.


We keep MLS East v MLS West. EAST v West Don't meant until MLS cup.

MLS East will add:

Atlanta United
Miami International FC (InterMiami)
Minnisota United
1 more east cost team

MLS West will add:

LAFC
Sacremto Republic FC
St.Louis FC
San Antoinio FC

 

[BossNYC]

Miami International....Airport?

I'd rather it be AC Miami.

Only way Cosmos get into MLS is via a rebranding of Red Bulls.

 

[franchise646]

Miami International....Airport?

I'd rather it be AC Miami.

Only way Cosmos get into MLS is via a rebranding of Red Bulls.

The Miami fans like Inter Miami, there is also Atletico or Deporotivo Miami

 

[Shawn Ryu]

Miami International....Airport?

I'd rather it be AC Miami.

Only way Cosmos get into MLS is via a rebranding of Red Bulls.

Anything but United.

 

[sbrylski]

the Miami team won't be allowed to call themselves united because there is a team in Miami call Miami United.

Beckham met with the owner of Miami United recently. Rumors were it may have been to see if he can get the name.

 

[franchise646]

Beckham met with the owner of Miami United recently. Rumors were it may have been to see if he can get the name.

How much do you think they asked for?