Expansion Rumors Megathread
- Thread starter MagnusPax
- Start date
So, apparently the beloved Sacramento Republic didn't submit the Sacramento MLS Expansion bid and rather another group did behind their backs. Shit is getting feisty... #NoRepublicNoParty #SacramentoScrewjob
So based on this fiasco, spots 25 and 26 are wide open.
So based on this fiasco, spots 25 and 26 are wide open.
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Top media markets without an MLS team, along with # of other major sports franchises in area.
13. Phoenix (4)
14. Tampa Bay area (3)
16. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (4)
18. Cleveland/Akron (3)
20. Sacramento (1)
21. St. Louis (2)
23. Pittsburgh (3)
24. Raleigh/Durham (1)
25. Charlotte (2)
26. Indianapolis (2)
27. Baltimore (2)
28. San Diego (1)
29. Nashville (2)
30. Hartford/New Haven (0)
13. Phoenix (4)
14. Tampa Bay area (3)
16. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (4)
18. Cleveland/Akron (3)
20. Sacramento (1)
21. St. Louis (2)
23. Pittsburgh (3)
24. Raleigh/Durham (1)
25. Charlotte (2)
26. Indianapolis (2)
27. Baltimore (2)
28. San Diego (1)
29. Nashville (2)
30. Hartford/New Haven (0)
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A school of thought: MLS doesn't want to supersaturate the Florida and California markets. Does having Orlando, Miami, and Tampa Bay make sense? Does LAFC, LA Galaxy, San Jose, Sacramento, and San Diego make sense?
I don't think so. So down the line with expansion either Sacramento will be picked or San Diego, mutually exclusive. If Miami doesn't figure itself out, Beckham's option expires and Tampa Bay is slotted in as the Florida expansion team.
Next, does MLS give Beckham more time to fix Miami? If yes, Tampa Bay won't be considered for spots 25 or 26. If not, and the option does expire, then Tampa Bay is moved in at 24 and we get three expansion teams announced this year.
I don't think so. So down the line with expansion either Sacramento will be picked or San Diego, mutually exclusive. If Miami doesn't figure itself out, Beckham's option expires and Tampa Bay is slotted in as the Florida expansion team.
Next, does MLS give Beckham more time to fix Miami? If yes, Tampa Bay won't be considered for spots 25 or 26. If not, and the option does expire, then Tampa Bay is moved in at 24 and we get three expansion teams announced this year.
Sacramento will barely dent San Jose's fan base, let alone LA/San Diego's. I'm more sympathetic to the argument as it applies to Florida.
This is absolutely insane. The Sacramento decision-makers literally had Don Garber telling them to make it work with the Sac Republic folk. They not only lied to Sac Republic and the citizens of Sacramento, but also to Don Garber - the guy that is ultimately making the decision of whether to admit you. I'm not sure they can even salvage the bid at this point - they are revealed to be untrustworthy and bad businesspersons.
The only way this makes any kind of sense is if the city got some type of guarantee from MLS, and are using that leverage to get a better monetary deal for themselves. For example, cutting Sac Republic from the equity share, but pushing them out of the market and buying the branding for a cheaper lump sum. Still a horrible plan, but at least it would be slightly less incompetent. Slightly.
Absolutely insane.
Florida can handle three teams. Amazing weather year-round, an insane number of youth clubs, all big TV markets that haven't been tapped. Garber may want to grab under-served areas of middle America, but that doesn't mean Florida would be supersaturated.
San Diego has a sports team? I just thought the Padres were a team created for television for the FOX TV show Pitch...
One more update: St. Louis only has 2 major sports franchises with the Blues and Cardinals. No NBA team and the Rams left not too long ago.
Given the developments in Sacramento, and the importance of ownership as stressed by Don Garber, I'm updating my predictions post-application deadline to the following:
2018/19 - Miami or Cincinnati: Miami still has it if they can somehow clasp victory from the jaws of defeat, but otherwise, no other application than Cincinnati has a (1) notably wealthier ownership group, (2) larger existing fanbase, nor (3) better immediate venue. Especially no applicant in the eastern half of the country. If Cincinnati has a real long term stadium plan, admit them now.
2020 - St. Louis and San Diego: Move over NFL. If St. Louis squeaks their funding deal with the city through, which I think they will, then it's no secret they're at the top of Garber's list. Both groups have strong ownership, and San Diego's even includes the owner of Univision and have plans to cross invest with a Liga MX team. These are the ripest markets with the strongest ownership group. Slam dunks.
In 2022, if Miami is already in the league, I think it goes to San Antonio and either Cincinnati or Detroit. If Cincinnati is already in the league, it goes to one of Detroit and San Antonio, and one of Tampa Bay and Miami. In other words, Tampa gets in if Miami doesn't, and I can't quite decide who to leave out between Cincinnati, Detroit, and San Antonio. I do still like San Antonio a lot among the smaller markets.
2018/19 - Miami or Cincinnati: Miami still has it if they can somehow clasp victory from the jaws of defeat, but otherwise, no other application than Cincinnati has a (1) notably wealthier ownership group, (2) larger existing fanbase, nor (3) better immediate venue. Especially no applicant in the eastern half of the country. If Cincinnati has a real long term stadium plan, admit them now.
2020 - St. Louis and San Diego: Move over NFL. If St. Louis squeaks their funding deal with the city through, which I think they will, then it's no secret they're at the top of Garber's list. Both groups have strong ownership, and San Diego's even includes the owner of Univision and have plans to cross invest with a Liga MX team. These are the ripest markets with the strongest ownership group. Slam dunks.
In 2022, if Miami is already in the league, I think it goes to San Antonio and either Cincinnati or Detroit. If Cincinnati is already in the league, it goes to one of Detroit and San Antonio, and one of Tampa Bay and Miami. In other words, Tampa gets in if Miami doesn't, and I can't quite decide who to leave out between Cincinnati, Detroit, and San Antonio. I do still like San Antonio a lot among the smaller markets.
Nashville is the fastest growing city in America with 6 Fortune 500 stadiums. Extremely large youth soccer programs. Packed national games.
I would love to go to Nashville for a game.
Top choices for me are
Miami
Nashville
St. Louis
San Diego
Carolinas (don't care which)
Detroit
Tampa
Vegas Or Phoenix
Sacramento
That would get the league to 32
I would love to go to Nashville for a game.
Top choices for me are
Miami
Nashville
St. Louis
San Diego
Carolinas (don't care which)
Detroit
Tampa
Vegas Or Phoenix
Sacramento
That would get the league to 32
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In my proposed league. We would have 32 teams with 4 divisions of 8. Play your division 2 times and everyone else 1. They would be 38 games.
Other option is to do 8 divisions of 4 and that would be 34 games.
Divisions
NORTHEAST- NE, MTL, NYC, NJ, PHI, CHI, TOR, DET
SOUTH- CAROLINAS, ATL, ORL, MIA, NASH, DC, COLUMBUS, TAMPA
CENTRAL - HOU, DAL, COL, SALT LAKE, KC, STL, MINN, VEGAS/PHEONIX
WEST - VAN, SEA, PORT, SJ, LA, LA2, SD, SAC
Other option is to do 8 divisions of 4 and that would be 34 games.
Divisions
NORTHEAST- NE, MTL, NYC, NJ, PHI, CHI, TOR, DET
SOUTH- CAROLINAS, ATL, ORL, MIA, NASH, DC, COLUMBUS, TAMPA
CENTRAL - HOU, DAL, COL, SALT LAKE, KC, STL, MINN, VEGAS/PHEONIX
WEST - VAN, SEA, PORT, SJ, LA, LA2, SD, SAC
Qualify top four from each, mix them into four groups of four. Three games, hosted by the higher seed. Top two advance to quarterfinals of the single-leg knockout.
If you do 8 divisions of 4. Each division winner advances. Then to two groups of 4 for playoffs. Too many games with a 38 game regular season. Would need to be 34 game reg season.
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