Came here to post this. I think we’re going to win our next two and be at 14 points out of a possible 30.
The East is embarrassing.
Home - April 24 - Chicago
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Came here to post this. I think we’re going to win our next two and be at 14 points out of a possible 30.
The East is embarrassing.
Not that much. The West has 14 more points total. 9 of those are from having more H2H wins. 5 are because of fewer draws. And Cincinnati is solely responsible for almost 25% of the points the East has dropped to the West so far.
That is part of the reason for my limited enthusiasm this season. We are playing for the playoffs with no realistic hope of MLS Cup. Last season, even though Atlanta and possibly Red Bull were stronger, we were matched evenly enough that we could have won a two game series. When you have realistic hope of winning MLS Cup, it is so much easier to get excited about the 9th match of the year. It will take a sustained period of better play and probably at least one key summer addition (Medina replaced by better DP) to restore that hope, and with it, the excitement for our matches.
So yay, we are 68% for the playoffs, but unless our MLS cup odds get above 3% (no idea what the math people say, I'm going by the feel method) my enthusiasm is capped.
I am going to disagree with you here. because of the format of the MLS Cup, so much is dependent on a team's last month of the season roster, injuries and form. I think any team that plays a home playoff game can win the Cup. Top 3 or 4 teams in each conference has a realistic chance of winning what is essentially an end of the season tournament. Any team that makes the playoffs as a top four seed is going to have a much higher chance of winning the Cup than 3%.
If we play 25 more games like DC we have a great chance of winning the Cup.
D
dummyrun
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Math people and the feel method agree: FiveThirtyEight has us at 4% to win the MLS Cup. But at this point in the last couple seasons, the eventual MLS Cup contestants were at 18% vs. 5% and 9% vs. 8%. So yeah, basically what Sabo said.
That's a big if, and factors heavily into my 3%.
The new playoff format also reduces the chances of a lower seed, lower quality winning. If we improve, sure, we got a shot, but it's going to take a lot more than 1 win to get those hope's up. I see some light after Sunday, but right now it's just a little flicker, it can get brighter over time. Part of my excitement about tonight is the chance to see if there really is light, or did the stars align on Sunday.
Kangaroo Jack
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We may not have started so great but we still only have 1 loss. The MLS cup is certainly attainable and not that crazy, theres a lot of season to go.
I am both pleased and shocked to report that my pair of tickets actually sold! (I'm out of town).
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