Home - March 10 - D.C.

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Come on you know you couldnt stay away too long. The temptation to complain about the team is too great.
 
I know you didn't write the linked article about DC United in 2018, but maybe you can confirm something for me anyway. It says the average home xG is 1.165 times average, and the average away xG is of course 0.835 times average. This means, therefore that combined, being the home team is worth a 0.33 xG advantage per game on average, correct? I believe that is how it reads and also how it must work, but I know from experience that even smart people writing about numbers are not always clear on such things, and surprisingly, I sometimes make mistakes myself, so I want to double check.

I made a quick spreadsheet from ASA's interactive tables to answer your question. The cells highlighted in yellow are the percentages Ryan mentioned in his article; the cell in blue is the difference that I think you're asking about. From 2011 to 2018, home teams earned an average of 0.42 xG per game more than their opponents.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGzpSFAYdFnCvIcUMEt9GxwvslFoVoTvfXYMgv8umrc/edit?usp=sharing
 
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I made a quick spreadsheet from ASA's interactive tables to answer your question. The cells highlighted in yellow are the percentages Ryan mentioned in his article; the cell in blue is the difference that I think you're asking about. From 2011 to 2018, home teams earned an average of 0.42 xG per game more than their opponents.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGzpSFAYdFnCvIcUMEt9GxwvslFoVoTvfXYMgv8umrc/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks. I didn't mean to ask you to do any work, just to confirm conceptually based on that other article. But t was helpful, so thanks.

Do we know why teams outperform xG so much more at Home than Away? Is it PKs?
 
Thanks. I didn't mean to ask you to do any work, just to confirm conceptually based on that other article. But t was helpful, so thanks.

Do we know why teams outperform xG so much more at Home than Away? Is it PKs?

No problem, just seemed like the easiest way to answer the question clearly. I have no idea why home teams have a higher G/xG but it's probably not penalties because those have a definite xG value (around 0.8). I'll ask around to see if anybody has written anything good on this.
 
Also if you're in the SS don't sit on your boyfriend's shoulders as he jumps around on a wet metal bench in the rain.

Rough flashbacks to some idiot behavior from last season.... (they ended up slipping and tumbling backwards and having to leave because of the injuries)
 
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