MLS Playoff Race - 2019

[dannd23]

With 1st in the East essentially clinched barring disaster, thought it would be a good time to start a thread for the playoffs for general discussion.

Team	Points	GD	Opponent 1	Opponent 2
NYCFC	61	22	@ New England	@ Philly
Philly	55	11	@ Columbus	NYCFC
ATL	54	13	@ Montreal	New England
DCU	48	4	@ RBNJ	Cincy
RBNJ	47	5	DCU	@ Montreal
Toronto	46	4	@ Chicago	Columbus
New England	42	-7	NYCFC	@ ATL
Still in the hunt
Chicago	38	5	Toronto	@ Orlando
Montreal	37	-16	ATL	RBNJ

If current standings hold,

1st round:
DCU vs RBNJ
Philly vs NE
Atlanta vs Toronto

Conference Semis
NYCFC vs Winner of DCU/RBNJ
Winner of Philly/NE vs Winner of ATL/TOR

Will continue to update as there is more clarity.

 

[Gotham Gator]

There are 3 downsides to finishing second.

1. Having to play a first round game, probably against New England. Yes, it's a game we should win, but there is still a substantial non-zero chance of a loss.
2. Having to play Atlanta in the second round game, instead of DC, NJ or Toronto.
3. Having to potentially travel to Philly for the Conference Finals instead of hosting.

 

[SoupInNYC]

With 1st in the East essentially clinched barring disaster, thought it would be a good time to start a thread for the playoffs for general discussion.

Team	Points	GD	Opponent 1	Opponent 2
NYCFC	61	22	@ New England	@ Philly
Philly	55	11	@ Columbus	NYCFC
ATL	54	13	@ Montreal	New England
DCU	48	4	@ RBNJ	Cincy
RBNJ	47	5	DCU	@ Montreal
Toronto	46	4	@ Chicago	Columbus
New England	42	-7	NYCFC	@ ATL
Still in the hunt
Chicago	38	5	Toronto	@ Orlando
Montreal	37	-16	ATL	RBNJ

If current standings hold,

1st round:
DCU vs RBNJ
Philly vs NE
Atlanta vs Toronto

Conference Semis
NYCFC vs Winner of DCU/RBNJ
Winner of Philly/NE vs Winner of ATL/TOR

Will continue to update as there is more clarity.

I imagine TFC moves up into either the 4 or 5 spot, especially with DCU and NJ playing each other this weekend and TFC's remaining schedule.

 

[canchon]

Could there be a scenario in the 2nd half against NER where other results are going the Revs way and they just need a tie to get in?

Then we could see a “wink wink” the two teams pass the ball around for 20 minutes knowing that they both benefit from the result.

 

[SoupInNYC]

But the bye is huge. Otherwise we have 2 matches in 3-4 days in rounds 1 & 2.

There are 3 downsides to finishing second.

1. Having to play a first round game, probably against New England. Yes, it's a game we should win, but there is still a substantial non-zero chance of a loss.
2. Having to play Atlanta in the second round game, instead of DC, NJ or Toronto.
3. Having to potentially travel to Philly for the Conference Finals instead of hosting.

Most definitely on both accounts. And I didn't mean to imply that finishing 2nd would not be awful. I mostly meant that in any manner, we won't have to play road games in three places where we have definitely struggled in the past. We've done OK at Philly.

 

[canchon]

There are 3 downsides to finishing second.

1. Having to play a first round game, probably against New England. Yes, it's a game we should win, but there is still a substantial non-zero chance of a loss.
2. Having to play Atlanta in the second round game, instead of DC, NJ or Toronto.
3. Having to potentially travel to Philly for the Conference Finals instead of hosting.

A potential upside of finishing second is that since there is no reseeding, could end up playing the six seed in the next round instead of the 4-5 winner if there is a first round upset.

(I know, expecting anyone to go to Atlanta and win with that home cooking is crazy but this is MLS.)

Imagine the 1 team off a bye having to host say a Toronto who just whacked the 5 seed at home or say a DCU who just upset Atlanta on the road and has to go on the road again.

 

[Ulrich]

With 1st in the East essentially clinched barring disaster, thought it would be a good time to start a thread for the playoffs for general discussion.

Team	Points	GD	Opponent 1	Opponent 2
NYCFC	61	22	@ New England	@ Philly
Philly	55	11	@ Columbus	NYCFC
ATL	54	13	@ Montreal	New England
DCU	48	4	@ RBNJ	Cincy
RBNJ	47	5	DCU	@ Montreal
Toronto	46	4	@ Chicago	Columbus
New England	42	-7	NYCFC	@ ATL
Still in the hunt
Chicago	38	5	Toronto	@ Orlando
Montreal	37	-16	ATL	RBNJ

If current standings hold,

1st round:
DCU vs RBNJ
Philly vs NE
Atlanta vs Toronto

Conference Semis
NYCFC vs Winner of DCU/RBNJ
Winner of Philly/NE vs Winner of ATL/TOR

Will continue to update as there is more clarity.

Not gonna lie, would rather play DC than NJ because NJ matches always have weird voodoo and while I’d rather beat them, the random variables scare the crap out of me.

 

[moogoo]

Most definitely on both accounts. And I didn't mean to imply that finishing 2nd would not be awful. I mostly meant that in any manner, we won't have to play road games in three places where we have definitely struggled in the past. We've done OK at Philly.

yea i'm ok with playing at philly. heber can channel villa and score from the half. I SEE IT.. BUT I DON'T BELIEVE IT!

 

[dannd23]

Not gonna lie, would rather play DC than NJ because NJ matches always have weird voodoo and while I’d rather beat them, the random variables scare the crap out of me.

Dream scenario would be Toronto and RBNJ lose out, and New England wins out. A home match against New England or DCU would be ideal.

That said, New England has to play us and ATL. I think it is more likely Chicago slides into the 7th spot than it is that they rise in the rankings.

 

[LionNYC]

After Maxime Chanot got a yellow card on that PK tackle (and F. Pogba didn't), I started to have a feeling that the 1st seed will come down to Decision Day. Taty, Ring, and Chanot all get yellows and all are suspended the next game. That's quite shady.

 

[mgarbowski]

...Said Philly last year and lost both of them.

I always thought that was kind of foolhardy from Philadelphia last year: admirable confidence, but borderline absurd. NYC had trouble at the end of the season, but the Union had a negative goal differential for the year, and were not streaking into the playoffs themselves. They had 7 points in the last 5 games, same as NYCFC. They absolutely had the ability to beat NYC, but there was no reason to think they inevitably would win 1 of 2 at YS. They just weren't good enough to make NYC do anything different in the second game to win again.

This year, both teams are much better, and I have no illusion that winning at Talen will be easy. They haven't lost at home since May. I do believe, however, that NYCFC is so good right now, with so much talent and flexibility (if everyone is healthy and available), that it would be very hard for any team in MLS to beat them 2x running, even LAFC in LA.

 

[mgarbowski]

Still, more interesting is whether Atlanta or Philly finish 2nd. Atlanta have the tiebreaker and the easier schedule, so I think they make up the 1 point deficit.

I've been thinking about this. It could affect us a little, maybe. The Union don't just have the pressure to catch us but to stay in second. That's a really big deal, because playing any one of NER/CHI/MTL/ORL should be easier by orders of magnitude over DC/RB/TOR. The Josef Martinez injury is a big boon to the Union as well. The Impact have been terrible in league play the entire second half, but we need to find out what Atlanta can do without Josef and when not playing against us at YS. On the flip side, if the Union beat Columbus, and if we and the 5 stripes both lose, then the Union will have clinched second and come into decision day thinking "team of destiny." It kills me but I'm rooting for Atlanta on Sunday, as a backup to keep pressure on the Union, just in case.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Okay, reposting the current state of play.

Give me your top 7 in each conference at season’s end. Go!

 

[adam]

If the playoffs started today:

 

[Gotham Gator]

Predictions.

East: NYC, ATL, PHI, DCU, NJR, TOR, NER
West: LAF, LAG, MIN, RSL, SEA, DAL, SJE

 

[Shwafta]

Predictions.

East: NYC, ATL, PHI, DCU, NJR, TOR, NER
West: LAF, LAG, MIN, RSL, SEA, DAL, SJE

EAST: NYC PHI ATL NJR TOR DCU NER
WEST: LAFC, MIN, LAG, POR, RSL, SEA, SJE

 

[mgarbowski]

East: NYC, PHI, ATL, RB, DC, TOR, NER

West: LAFC, MIN, LAG, RSL, SEA, FDC, SJE

 

[canchon]

So by my calculations here’s what to be decided in the East on decision day:

Atlanta or Philly battle it out for the 2 and 3 seeds. Whichever team has a better result on decision day gets the 2 seed. If they match each other (if both win, for example) Atlanta gets the 2.

DCU, RBNJ and TOR all battling for 4 and 5 seeds. DCU has pole position sitting in 4 now one point up on RBNJ.

NER could rise as high as sixth with a win and TOR loss but most likely will be seventh.

 

[moogoo]

So by my calculations here’s what to be decided in the East on decision day:

Atlanta or Philly battle it out for the 2 and 3 seeds. Whichever team has a better result on decision day gets the 2 seed. If they match each other (if both win, for example) Atlanta gets the 2.

DCU, RBNJ and TOR all battling for 4 and 5 seeds. DCU has pole position sitting in 4 now one point up on RBNJ.

NER could rise as high as sixth with a win and TOR loss but most likely will be seventh.

will be interesting. philly plays us who may or may not play our starters but we have no pressure so we might be that much more dangerous playing for fun.

atl plays new england... which won't be an easy game. both are playing for seeding.

 

[Davo15]

I know there's an excitement level about it but call me a wuss, I don't want the Redbulls.