MLS Playoff Race 2018

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Interesting stuff from Mr. Doyle.

How serious a chance do you have of making the playoffs if you're below the line entering Week 23? Let's dig back through the last three years (since the expansion to six playoff spots in each conference) to put it into perspective:

2017: In the East, Atlanta United climbed above the line while Orlando City dropped. In the West, FC Dallas' death spiral was just picking up steam this time last year, which opened the door for San Jose to eventually climb into the playoffs.

2016: You remember this one, right? D.C. United jumped up over the final three months of the season while the Revs did a nosedive, and in the West the Sounders made their now-annual second-half surge as the Whitecaps dropped out.

2015: It was the first year of TAM, which was added midseason, so you'd think that would have made the league more volatile. But nope. Everyone who was above the playoff line as of Week 22 was above the playoff line at the end of the year.

In other words: Four teams in three years have managed to make a late-season push over the hump. In 2016 those pushes were sparked by team-defining transfer window moves (Nicolas Lodeiro and, yes, Patrick Mullins), while in 2017 they were sparked by a weird schedule (Atlanta's run of home games in September and October) and Los Toros Tejanos' still-so-complete-I-can't-wrap-my-head-around-it meltdown.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/08/03/armchair-analyst-your-complete-guide-week-23-mls-slate
 
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So, with that in mind. Here is the East and the West and the line for each (using PPG). Pick one team in each conference to fall below the line and rise above the line.

East
ATL
NYC
NJR
CLB
NER
PHI
____
MON*
TOR
CHI
ORL
DCU

West
DAL
POR
LAF
LAG
SKC
RSL
___
VAN
HOU
MIN
SEA
COL
SAN

_______
* - Above the line on pure points, but PHI has two games in hand.
 
So, with that in mind. Here is the East and the West and the line for each (using PPG). Pick one team in each conference to fall below the line and rise above the line.

East
ATL
NYC
NJR
CLB
NER
PHI
____
MON
TOR
CHI
ORL
DCU

West
DAL
POR
LAF
LAG
SKC
RSL
___
MAN
HOU
MIN
SEA
COL
SAN

East: Philly & Toronto
West: RSL & Manchester? That man city or Man U? Either way they easily can qualify
 
In the East, I think Toronto makes the playoffs and Philadelphia falls.

In the West, I honestly think the six above the line stay there, but to follow the rules, I will say Vancouver passes RSL.
 
In the East, I think Toronto makes the playoffs and Philadelphia falls.

In the West, I honestly think the six above the line stay there, but to follow the rules, I will say Vancouver passes RSL.
I'm with you on TFC and Philly. I think Seattle ends up making it above RSL, with Vancouver just behind.