When ever this video is posted, I always have to watch it. It’s just instant gratification and instant dopamine
NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion
- Thread starter Gotham Gator
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When ever this video is posted, I always have to watch it. It’s just instant gratification and instant dopamine
One big difference is that Medina has been firing bullets this year, where in the past both he and Maxi tended to lob loping high corners. Another is that Keaton is also more of a presence in the box on corners, which draws attention away from others even when we isn’t the target.
Basically, the kids are growing up.
Basically, the kids are growing up.
Seth is a writer and researcher for the YES network, and I very much appreciate that someone alerted him to my tweet (I'm guessing Mark Booth?) and he responded with the info.
Because of the dates of the astounding DC United streak, I wondered whether in the days of MLS shootouts the goals scored in the shootouts counted as if normal, and maybe they had a 0-0 tie that did not end the streak because they scored in the shootout.
It was hard to check because the idiots at MLS digital have effectively destroyed access to old game records as part of the 2021 web redesign but after digging I found what I needed elsewhere. DC United did not have any 0-0 ties during the streak (I still don't know whether they counted the shootout goals but it is moot).
DC United legit scored during the standard 90 minutes in 52 consecutive regular season MLS games in 1997-1999 while also generally dominating the league. The next longest 27-game streak by the 2008-2009 Columbus Crew is 15 entire games shorter. That is Bob Beamon territory. The current NYCFC streak of 25 games is in a 3-way tie for third. Here is where I found the data to check the DC 1997-99 streak:
USA - DC United - Results and fixtures - Soccerway
USA - DC United - Results and fixtures - Soccerway
us.soccerway.com
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On free kicks, I wonder how much Covid protocols ruined 2020 training? With the small scale training required for much of the year, they couldn't really practice set pieces properly as you need pretty much everyone involved. Then during what limited time they did have in full squads, it was probably a lower priority than catching up on other essentials with a new manager.
I think the craziest thing is that, if I remember correctly, we were absolutely terrible/unlucky with our corner kicks and didn't score one for the majority of the season about 2-3 years ago. When we finally did, I believe everyone ran to Rob V and swarmed him in the celebration for finally getting one through. Great to see the work and excellence shining through now with all the work he has done with the team. Went from being a horrible set piece club to one of the best in a matter or 2-3 years is quite something.
Schedule strength update.
NYCFC has the second easiest remaining schedule as of now at 1.20 H/A adjusted PPG. That's extra unusual because we have 8 home games and 11 away games left. Toronto has the easiest at 1.11. Even Austin has a slightly tougher schedule at 1.22 with 11 home games left and 8 away. As the next 3 easy games drop off, our remaining difficulty number should rise, but the 5 toughest games come right after that and the final 11 is is super easy, barely an inconvenience.
To date, we are tied for 7th toughest schedule at 1.42.
Austin and Toronto also have the biggest variances between to-date and the future, with schedules easier by 0.45 and 0.46 respectively.
Biggest negative variance is Colorado, with a future schedule more difficult by 0.40.
Every team in the league with a better PPG than us has a schedule that is more difficult in the future than to date. In fact, arrange the league in a single PPG table, and of the top 17 teams, only NYCFC (ranked 7) and Montreal (ranked 14) have remaining schedules that are easier than so far, but outside of Colorado and Nashville (0.18), the differences are by 0.14 or less.
NYCFC has the second easiest remaining schedule as of now at 1.20 H/A adjusted PPG. That's extra unusual because we have 8 home games and 11 away games left. Toronto has the easiest at 1.11. Even Austin has a slightly tougher schedule at 1.22 with 11 home games left and 8 away. As the next 3 easy games drop off, our remaining difficulty number should rise, but the 5 toughest games come right after that and the final 11 is is super easy, barely an inconvenience.
To date, we are tied for 7th toughest schedule at 1.42.
Austin and Toronto also have the biggest variances between to-date and the future, with schedules easier by 0.45 and 0.46 respectively.
Biggest negative variance is Colorado, with a future schedule more difficult by 0.40.
Every team in the league with a better PPG than us has a schedule that is more difficult in the future than to date. In fact, arrange the league in a single PPG table, and of the top 17 teams, only NYCFC (ranked 7) and Montreal (ranked 14) have remaining schedules that are easier than so far, but outside of Colorado and Nashville (0.18), the differences are by 0.14 or less.
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This is some great data, but how do we factor in that not all our "home" games are at YS? We clearly play way better at home vs. RBA. Gotta count for something, right?
I don't think we know that we play better at YS at all, except by chance. You need to account for quality of opposition played at both venues, how much of our roster has been available for which games, and quirky stuff like this: We have 2 losses this year at RBA. In one we allowed 2 free kick goals to Zelalem (plus Maxi came off an injury and only played 22 minutes, Callens and Tinnerholm were both out, and Jasson played 87 minutes). In the other we dominated New England but lost 3-2 because Johnson allowed yet another goal from outside the box and Turner played even above his usual level. Is that really due to the venue? I mean you're allowed to think so, but it's by no means certain.
Oh, and when you add in last year our record at RBA overall in MLS regular season play is 7-3-0 for 2.10 PPG. NYCFC's all time home PPG is 1.95. Exclude both 2015 and 2016, and it is 2.16. That's really a meaningless difference.
For sure, I'd rather the team play at YS than RBA, but I can't say there's a meaningful difference in results to date.
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We should start a rotating forums NYCFC post/pre-game podcast because, let's be honest, most of the people on this forum would be WAY better than the cooligans or whoever
Halfway thru 2021, here's where things stand:
NYCFC leads the league in goals scored (per game). Revs are second.
NYCFC leads in goal differential. Revs are second.
NYCFC leads in xG Differential, followed by LAFC and Nashville. The Revs are 8th.
NYCFC leads the league in xPTS, followed by Nashville, LAFC, and DC. The Revs are 6th.
NYCFC has the 6th worst differential between GD and xGD, but it is almost all on the GA side: -0.39 GF and -2.55 GA
Revs have the second best differential between GD and xGD (behind RSL): GF +2.28 and GA +4.13
NYCFC sits only 8th in PPG league-wide, and third in the East
So whether you prefer basic stats like goals scored and allowed, or advanced stats like xGoals, NYCFC has results that lag its performance. Based on comments here, Twitter and Reddit, the main suspected culprits are the coach, finishing/scoring, goalkeeping and simple luck. It's likely to be some kind of mix. Discuss among yourselves, right now I'm just showcasing data, except to say that I believe the Goals Against differential is less subject to luck than Goals For because of the goalkeeper effect, and the scoring/finishing theory is preposterous given how much the club has scored.
Historical Comps
At +14, 2021 NYCFC has its best ever Goal Differential at the standard halfway mark. The previous best at 17 games was +11 in 2017. The best final season GD was 21 in 2019, which was at +10 after 17 games.
Here's where the 2021 club stands for first half points:
2015 17 points after 17 games. They won 20 points in the back half to end with 37.
2016 24 30 54
2017 30 27 57
2018 31 25 56
2019 29 32 61
2020 26 (1.33 PPG) 39 after 23 (2.17 PPG)
2021 28 TBD TBD
So 2018 was the worst drop off, and 2016 the best uplift, when compared to the first half.
Home/Away
NYC is at 2.11 PPG at home which would be third best in club history behind 2018 and 2019. But it has failed to win in 4 straight road games for an Away PPG of 1.125 and people are concerned. So I looked up the club history of Away winless streaks of 4 games or more.
2015 NYCFC went winless in its historic first 6 Away games, and had another 5 game winless Away streak later in 2015.
Under Vieira, there was a 6-game Away winless streak in 2016, but then none longer than 3 until the team failed to win the last 4 Away games under Patrick in 2018 (thank you for the distractions). Then Dome lost his first Away game for a combined 5 game streak.
Dome Torrent gave us a club worst 8-game Away winless streak that straddled 2018 (5 games) and 2019 (3 games), and so 2018 had a pair of 5 game Away winless streaks. This is Ronny's first Away winless streak of 4 games and he previously never even had a 3-game Away winless streak. Outside of 2015, NYCFC's worst Away record was 4-9-4 for 0.94 PPG in 2018 due to the double 5-game winless streaks.
The Second Half
Here is how NYCFC can get to assorted final point totals. Looking at both the PPG table above and this, you can see it would take a major collapse to miss the playoffs.
Héber
Today's special topic is that I believe Héber is very unlikely to score goals at his 2019 rate ever again, at least over a full season. Anything is possible over a short schedule when, we hope, he comes back this year. That's not because of his injury, the team, system, teammates, or coach. It is because of this:
That is the leader board for Goals minus xGoals per 96 minutes, for any season of at least 1700 minutes in MLS since 2013 (as far back as ASA goes). 2019 Héber is tied for the very best such season ever. Players with fewer minutes can have much higher variances, and I usually would cut off even higher than 1700 but I needed to go that low to include 2019 Héber at 1728.
So you may think, maybe he's just really good at finishing chances and he will do it again. But the problem is this:
- People repeat at scoring a lot of goals. ASA's default page size is 30 lines. The top 30 season long goals per game with the same filters features 17 players in the top 30. That means a lot of repeat appearances on the leader board.
- Players also repeat at scoring lots of xGoals. The top 30 for xGoals per game over a full season has 20 players, so that is also a decent amount of repeat performers.
- But players rarely manage to repeat seasons in which they over score their xGoals by a significant amount. The top 30 of the table excerpted above has 28 separate players on it. Only Robbie Keane and Romain Alessandrini managed to make the top 30 twice, because finishing that well is not generally repeatable. If it were an actual skill, the leader board for scoring more goals than xGoals would have roughly the same number of repeat leaders as do the Goal and xGoal leaders.
To finish on a more hopeful note: right now Gustavo Bou sits at +0.36 per 96 minutes and 1440 minutes to date in 2021. That pace is unlikely to continue.
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That 2019 team was really something in terms of overperforming xG.
- Heber 5.34 G-xG (2nd in MLS)
- Mitrita 3.89 G-xG (8th in MLS)
- Tajouri-Shradi 3.13 G-xG (10th in MLS)
- Taty 1.79 G-xG (35th in MLS)
54, 57, 56, 61
NYCFC’s full season point totals in the last four full seasons - between 54 and 61 points.
This year they are right on track to do just the same. That is some incredible consistency.
NYCFC’s full season point totals in the last four full seasons - between 54 and 61 points.
This year they are right on track to do just the same. That is some incredible consistency.
It really is, and last year their PPG pro rates to 57.7 over a standard 34 games.
Answering my own question
Seems like the Silver Lake investment was for the Manchester Arena
Seems like the Silver Lake investment was for the Manchester Arena
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