NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion
- Thread starter Gotham Gator
- Start date
despite returning to full capacity, seems covid is still playing a big part in hesitation. not to mention, does this number take into consideration RBA games as "home"? or just YS? obviously RBA games will drag our average down. Hard to get any real average value with just a few games at YS too. guess that's what the * is for.
i'm sure the higher per game prices have deterred casual fans as well.
I think the Crew have lost every game since Porter whined to the media that they weren’t getting the respect they deserved.
And went from best defense in the league to conceding 11 goals in 3 games.
Porter's teams have a history of winning MLS Cup and then missing the playoffs.
NYC just finished a pretty easy six game stretch getting 14 of 18 points. It is a measure both of expectations and team quality that I think people believed, reasonably, it should have been 16 of 18.
Next five games are rough, with average opposing H/A PPG of 2.02, then a very easy final 11 with 10 of the 11 opponents rating at 1.33 or lower.
Setting aside averages I decided to count cupcake games:
New England has played 10 games against an opponent with H/A PPG below 1. NYCFC has had 5 such games.
New England has 2 such games left. NYCFC has 7.
Next five games are rough, with average opposing H/A PPG of 2.02, then a very easy final 11 with 10 of the 11 opponents rating at 1.33 or lower.
Setting aside averages I decided to count cupcake games:
New England has played 10 games against an opponent with H/A PPG below 1. NYCFC has had 5 such games.
New England has 2 such games left. NYCFC has 7.
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Back to the next 5 games:
at Union 1.90
at RBA 1.75
Revs Home 1.91
at Nashville 2.09
at Revs 2.44
I put the Over/Under at 8/15 points and take the over.
at Union 1.90
at RBA 1.75
Revs Home 1.91
at Nashville 2.09
at Revs 2.44
I put the Over/Under at 8/15 points and take the over.
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All time MLS Regular Season, NYCFC has a better record at RBA (8-3-0, 2.18 PPG) than Yankee Stadium (53-15-23, 2.00 PPG).
That is only for NYCFC home games at RBA, right? They’ve lost to Red Bull’s more than 3 times at RBA.
Correct. That was extremely clear in my head but not in my writing.
ETA: the records also account for hosting Houston in Hartford, Columbus at Citi, and 2 MLS is Back games in Orlando that double counted as regular season and were artificially deemed Home games.
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To be fair, Yankee Stadium has to take the full hit for 2015.
That’s a damn good home record including 2015.
BuT NYCFC OnLy Is GoOd At HoMe BeCaUsE oF PlAyInG oN YaNkEe StAdIuM’s SmAlL fIeLd
If we double the points we got in the first half of the season, we'd have 56 points. That's with 5 losses and 4 ties. If we can lessen that number, we can see above 60 points. If we can get to 62 points, that means we change 2 losses to wins, with regards to the supporter shield, 62 points would put us in...
In 2019, 2nd, behind our own 64 points (so technically third?) and LAFC on 72.
In 2018, 3rd, tied with SKC
In 2017, 2nd, behind Toronto with 69
In 2016, 1st, ahead of 60-points-dallas
In 2015, 1st, ahead of 60-points-rb-and-dallas
In 2014, 2nd, behind Seattle with 64.
In 2013, 1st, ahead of rb with 59
In 2012, 3rd behind SJ with 66 and SKC with 63
In 2011, 3rd, behind LA with 67 and Seattle with 63
In 2019, 2nd, behind our own 64 points (so technically third?) and LAFC on 72.
In 2018, 3rd, tied with SKC
In 2017, 2nd, behind Toronto with 69
In 2016, 1st, ahead of 60-points-dallas
In 2015, 1st, ahead of 60-points-rb-and-dallas
In 2014, 2nd, behind Seattle with 64.
In 2013, 1st, ahead of rb with 59
In 2012, 3rd behind SJ with 66 and SKC with 63
In 2011, 3rd, behind LA with 67 and Seattle with 63
Surprised I lost track of this and failed to notice the 10th game:
The DP slot held by Talles Magno has now missed 13 games. It feels almost unfair to tar him with this. The spot was held open for 6 games before he arrived, and the club knew he was injured when they signed him, and did so for non-immediate purposes. Medina has played at least 1 minute in every game. Maxi has only missed 2.
Nevertheless, this now extends the NYCFC streak of having a Designated Player spot miss at least 10 games every season starting in 2015 and now 7 years in a row. 2020 will almost certainly always be the worst year in this respect, when 2 DPs -- Moralez and Mitrita -- managed to miss 10 or more games in just a 23 game season.
The DP slot held by Talles Magno has now missed 13 games. It feels almost unfair to tar him with this. The spot was held open for 6 games before he arrived, and the club knew he was injured when they signed him, and did so for non-immediate purposes. Medina has played at least 1 minute in every game. Maxi has only missed 2.
Nevertheless, this now extends the NYCFC streak of having a Designated Player spot miss at least 10 games every season starting in 2015 and now 7 years in a row. 2020 will almost certainly always be the worst year in this respect, when 2 DPs -- Moralez and Mitrita -- managed to miss 10 or more games in just a 23 game season.
I expect it's not rare. Lots of teams fill DP slots midseason for example. I also think some teams might still carry just 2 DPs. But managing to do it every year when you intend to carry 3 DPs seems unlikely. It takes not just bad luck or conscious decisions but both:
2015 club decision to defer Lampard and sign Pirlo midseason
2016 Lampard hurt
2017 Pirlo DNP for most of season, Vieira choice
2018 Villa nagging injuries
2019 Medina DNP for most of season, Torrent choice
2020 Maxi hurt, Mitrita loaned as club decision
2021 Magno signing deferred, plus hurt
That the club had coaches intentionally bench 2 separate DPs - one old one young -- for most of a season in different years, is absurd.
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Tried a new method to play out the rest of the season.
Assume the Revs earn exactly as many points per game in their remaining games as the advanced stats (xPTS) say they should have earned so far. Add that to the actual points earned to date. It comes to 65.
Do the same for NYCFC: 64.
Assume the Revs earn exactly as many points per game in their remaining games as the advanced stats (xPTS) say they should have earned so far. Add that to the actual points earned to date. It comes to 65.
Do the same for NYCFC: 64.
If we win our 2 games in hand and beat New England the two times we play them, we'd be tied on 43 points (as of current points). So we do control our own destiny (we'd be tied on wins (first tiebreaker) and then lead on goal differential (second tiebreaker). That being said, I'd like to see the Revs drop some points if we want to be 1st in the East.
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