Eight games in you can start drawing some tentative conclusions.
The Outfield mailbag included a very solid analysis of the season to date and the chance things improve. I agree with the analysis and conclusions there. This team is competitive in that it can win any game, but the odds of winning a lot or being successful in the playoffs is low. I'll just hit a handful of points to round out and maybe provoke discussion.
Do It Again
2023 after 8 games: 4 Home, 4 Away, 9 G 9 GA, 0GD, 12 Pts
2024 after 8 games: 4 Home 4 Away, 7 G 9 GA, -2 GD, 8 Pts
2025 after 8 games: 4 Home 4 Away, 11 G 11 GA, 0 GD, 11 Pts
NYCFC rarely has strong starts to a season, but this is pretty consistent slightly sub mediocrity over three years. Oddly, 2023 had the best record at this point and 2024 the worst. As a point of reference for incomplete rosters, the 2023 team never dressed 3 keepers to fill out a 20 man game roster, and always had a full 20 players. In 2025, NYCFC has needed to dress 3 keepers 4 times to complete a 20 man roster.
2025 League Ranks
Everything is mediocre to poor. In most cases, actual Stats exceed the xStats.
Where the ranking is shown as a range, that means NYCFC is tied with the teams in that range:
Points 17-18
xPts 21
Goal Differential 15-16
xGD 21
Goals For 12-15
xGF 17
Goals Against 15-19
xGA 21
The only area where NYCFC is above median is Goals Scored, even as its xG is a bit below median. I think (but cannot prove) that's because almost all of NYCFC's goals are off give-aways or in transition and I think xG models slightly undervalue those chances. NYCFC almost never scores against a settled defense absent a glaring mistake by that defense:
Away Goals
Randomness
Last year NYCFC set a club record with 13 games in its Secondary Kit. This year they have played in the Primary kit all 8 games to date.
From 2016-2022 NYCFC earned 1.84 PPG against the West and 1.60 against the East. From 2023 to now NYCFC has 0.64 against the West and 1.50 against the East.
Also 2016 to 2022 NYC earned 1.26 PPG Away. From 2023 to now just 0.79 Away.
If you woke up this morning wondering what is the worst 90 game stretch in NYCFC history, it is a tie between the 90 games ending with the April 6 game vs Minnesota and that ending with the April 12 game this past weekend against Philadelphia. The first game in the 90 game stretch that ends with the Philadelphia game was Taty Castellanos's final NYCFC appearance before being loaned to Girona. The PPG over those games is 1.322.
The Outfield mailbag included a very solid analysis of the season to date and the chance things improve. I agree with the analysis and conclusions there. This team is competitive in that it can win any game, but the odds of winning a lot or being successful in the playoffs is low. I'll just hit a handful of points to round out and maybe provoke discussion.
Do It Again
2023 after 8 games: 4 Home, 4 Away, 9 G 9 GA, 0GD, 12 Pts
2024 after 8 games: 4 Home 4 Away, 7 G 9 GA, -2 GD, 8 Pts
2025 after 8 games: 4 Home 4 Away, 11 G 11 GA, 0 GD, 11 Pts
NYCFC rarely has strong starts to a season, but this is pretty consistent slightly sub mediocrity over three years. Oddly, 2023 had the best record at this point and 2024 the worst. As a point of reference for incomplete rosters, the 2023 team never dressed 3 keepers to fill out a 20 man game roster, and always had a full 20 players. In 2025, NYCFC has needed to dress 3 keepers 4 times to complete a 20 man roster.
2025 League Ranks
Everything is mediocre to poor. In most cases, actual Stats exceed the xStats.
Where the ranking is shown as a range, that means NYCFC is tied with the teams in that range:
Points 17-18
xPts 21
Goal Differential 15-16
xGD 21
Goals For 12-15
xGF 17
Goals Against 15-19
xGA 21
The only area where NYCFC is above median is Goals Scored, even as its xG is a bit below median. I think (but cannot prove) that's because almost all of NYCFC's goals are off give-aways or in transition and I think xG models slightly undervalue those chances. NYCFC almost never scores against a settled defense absent a glaring mistake by that defense:
Away Goals
- a ridiculous giveaway by Alba - Miami
- a non-repeatable set play that exploited a terrible wall - Miami
- misplay of an NYCFC throw in - Atlanta
- PK earned when defender clumsily bulldozed Martinez on a length of field keeper kick and a concrete/turf bounce - Atlanta
- defender misplays a ball directly to Wolf inside the 18 - Atlanta
- a keeper out of position - Orlando
- a rebound when the keeper failed to control a 20+ yard shot - Orlando
- fast break - New England
- recycled corner - New England
- rebound when keeper fails to control 20 yard shot - Minnesota
- keeper caught far out of goal - Philadelphia
Randomness
Last year NYCFC set a club record with 13 games in its Secondary Kit. This year they have played in the Primary kit all 8 games to date.
From 2016-2022 NYCFC earned 1.84 PPG against the West and 1.60 against the East. From 2023 to now NYCFC has 0.64 against the West and 1.50 against the East.
Also 2016 to 2022 NYC earned 1.26 PPG Away. From 2023 to now just 0.79 Away.
If you woke up this morning wondering what is the worst 90 game stretch in NYCFC history, it is a tie between the 90 games ending with the April 6 game vs Minnesota and that ending with the April 12 game this past weekend against Philadelphia. The first game in the 90 game stretch that ends with the Philadelphia game was Taty Castellanos's final NYCFC appearance before being loaned to Girona. The PPG over those games is 1.322.
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