Queensboro FC

[Seth]

This is US Soccer we are talking about. They think the grass is blue and the sky is purple.

 

[Korker]

Boise circa 2009 though

 

[mgarbowski]

Boise circa 2009 though

Best ending to a CFB ever - 2007 Fiesta Bowl:

For more than the last play:

 

[Christopher Jee]

2. It's REALLY hard to explain pro/rel to non-soccer people and to get them interested in it. I've been trying for years to get some of my closest friends into soccer and they finally did this year. They opted to pick a team that should of been middle of the pack and try to grow with them there, so they picked West Ham. I've explained to them how the relegation system works and they all immediately stopped watching because they think it's dumb and makes no sense. I've explained this to countless others with the same views and opinions. Pro/Rel would see a lot of fan bases die here than would create larger ones, IMO.

What's the misunderstanding?

 

[Mario]

i think ulrich is the intern who got fired and is now jealous of the new interns so he's directing his anger towards forum members.

 

[Korker]

Best ending to a CFB ever - 2007 Fiesta Bowl:

For more than the last play:

Agreed 1000%. Remember watching that live and going nuts over the statue of liberty play.

 

[FootyLovin]

There are 2 things VERY wrong with this picture:

1. You're talking logically. This is US Soccer we are talking about. They think the grass is blue and the sky is purple. So for as much sense as your making, (Which for the record, I agree with and support a pro/rel system), they will never go for it.

2. It's REALLY hard to explain pro/rel to non-soccer people and to get them interested in it. I've been trying for years to get some of my closest friends into soccer and they finally did this year. They opted to pick a team that should of been middle of the pack and try to grow with them there, so they picked West Ham. I've explained to them how the relegation system works and they all immediately stopped watching because they think it's dumb and makes no sense. I've explained this to countless others with the same views and opinions. Pro/Rel would see a lot of fan bases die here than would create larger ones, IMO.

I get what you're saying, and I view it differently.

1. The logic will follow the money. Sometimes slowly. But eventually. Hell, just look at the fact that this thread just went to College Football needing a playoff system. They didn't do it because fans wanted it. They did it because there was more money in it.

2. It's only confusing now because it's not institutionalized. Getting people in America to get and embrace a foreign system in a foreign land is one thing. Getting people to adapt to a change being made to the team in their home town who they follow regularly, well that's just normal sports. College football does playoffs. Baseball plays inter-league games. Basketball switched to a 2-3-2 finals format. Sports change all the time. Traditions be damned.

One other nuance. MLS just changed their playoff format to have fewer games but more markets involved. Pro/rel would allow them to add a relegation playoff which would mean more games and more markets.

Mo money. Mo money.

Might be 10 years before the conditions are right. But I can see a path to get there.

 

[Korker]

I get what you're saying, and I view it differently.

1. The logic will follow the money. Sometimes slowly. But eventually. Hell, just look at the fact that this thread just went to College Football needing a playoff system. They didn't do it because fans wanted it. They did it because there was more money in it.

2. It's only confusing now because it's not institutionalized. Getting people in America to get and embrace a foreign system in a foreign land is one thing. Getting people to adapt to a change being made to the team in their home town who they follow regularly, well that's just normal sports. College football does playoffs. Baseball plays inter-league games. Basketball switched to a 2-3-2 finals format. Sports change all the time. Traditions be damned.

One other nuance. MLS just changed their playoff format to have fewer games but more markets involved. Pro/rel would allow them to add a relegation playoff which would mean more games and more markets.

Mo money. Mo money.

Might be 10 years before the conditions are right. But I can see a path to get there.

You'd have better luck getting people to use the metric system here than to back and fully understand pro/rel. Americans are the most fickle fans. Most don't identify with a local team the way people do in Europe. They don't see it as their neighborhood team or "I'm from New York, so therefor, I route for New York teams." Casual fans are who you have to market the game to and for most casual fans, they want to route for whoever is good at the time, not just where they are physically located. If a team were to go from top 3 and just missing MLS Cup to bottom 3 and being relegated, try explaining to casual fans how because of one bad season, the team they thought was going to be amazing is no longer there. Now they will forget about that team and jump to a new team. It's a dream at best to think this will ever change, barring some drastic change in ideology over the next 50 years.

 

[FootyLovin]

You'd have better luck getting people to use the metric system here than to back and fully understand pro/rel. Americans are the most fickle fans. Most don't identify with a local team the way people do in Europe. They don't see it as their neighborhood team or "I'm from New York, so therefor, I route for New York teams." Casual fans are who you have to market the game to and for most casual fans, they want to route for whoever is good at the time, not just where they are physically located. If a team were to go from top 3 and just missing MLS Cup to bottom 3 and being relegated, try explaining to casual fans how because of one bad season, the team they thought was going to be amazing is no longer there. Now they will forget about that team and jump to a new team. It's a dream at best to think this will ever change, barring some drastic change in ideology over the next 50 years.

Don't agree and I don't think either of us has the data to prove.

What percent of team fans are from within 50 miles of team?
Is that different in MLS vs other American sports?
What portion of league revenues are driven by bandwagon fans?
Will bandwagon fans in pro/rel league jump to another team (as they often/sometimes do in other sports when their team becomes a loser) or will they abandon the sport?

We don't have the data. As I said, I can see a path to where more markets are playing more games and more money is at stake. That tells me there is a chance.

 

[Korker]

Don't agree and I don't think either of us has the data to prove.

What percent of team fans are from within 50 miles of team?
Is that different in MLS vs other American sports?
What portion of league revenues are driven by bandwagon fans?
Will bandwagon fans in pro/rel league jump to another team (as they often/sometimes do in other sports when their team becomes a loser) or will they abandon the sport?

We don't have the data. As I said, I can see a path to where more markets are playing more games and more money is at stake. That tells me there is a chance.

I mean, just as you see a path where the more markets are in play, the more money is at stake is just as subjective as me saying the opposite. There's no data to substantiate that claim either and is purely just opinion, as mine is as well. Agree to disagree on the difference of opinions and that's all she wrote

 

[mgarbowski]

MLS maxes out its expansion fees when it hits, let's say, 28 or 32 clubs or whatever they consider the max to be. Can't make money through more expansion fees anymore. Let's say 20 of those clubs consider themselves perennial competitors and aren't worried about relegation if it did exist. Further, they believe that pro/rel would elevate the sport and the league and their TV and principal value.

I have multiple doubts about the feasibility of pro/rel in the US, but I will focus on just 2 points:
Of the 20 teams in the PL just 5 years ago, 9 have been relegated (of whom 2 have returned as bouncebacks). Go back 10 years, and only 7 teams have avoided relegation. The number going back to the start of the PL is 6. Basically only a third of the league is perennially safe.
In a hypothetical US soccer pro/rel, a lot would depend on how many of the 32 MLS teams are relegated every year. If it's only 3 out of 32 that means less collective risk, but I'm not sure enough to convince 60% of the league they suffer no risk.

Also, as we approach the announced limit of MLS expansion, any competent and sane team owner coming in will require enforceable assurances their expansion fee will be protected. The last 4 entrants who pay $300M+ fees will not risk doing so if there is any whiff they could be relegated out in a few years. They won't want to risk being chumps and would prefer to take the risk of getting in via promotion. The point is, I doubt MLS will be able to pocket the last several expansion fees, then introduce relegation any sooner than maybe 10 years after that, without having to pay back a good chunk of those fees. That makes the runway to profitability of pro-rel a good deal longer.

 

[Keith Putnam]

they think it's dumb and makes no sense

People without the poetic soul to enjoy the drama. Sad.

 

[sbrylski]

It will never be in MLS teams' interest to open the league. Something like 50% of a franchises value is the license to play in the top league. They are scarce and therefore they have a lot of value ($150 million is the going rate).

It's like saying NYC taxi drivers should get rid of the medallion system, because then there would be more taxi drivers and more people would take taxis and therefore current drivers would make more money despite the competition!

You don't willingly give up a monopoly. The only way MLS would be pressured into anything is if USL does so well that it somehow rises to the same level of play (in my analogy, USL is Uber; the better Uber does, the further the medallion prices dropped and became less relevant). Even then, MLS would hold out as long as it possibly can before any type of merger happens, and will play dirty if they ever start to feel realistically threatened (see Taxi drivers hurling rocks at Uber cars).

EDIT: Further to that, MLS will grow only until franchise fees maximize. After a certain point, demand will start shrinking because (1) the will appear less and less scarce, (2) the revenue potential of available markets will go down, and (3) diminishing returns on national media deals. The equilibrium is around 32 franchises based on the country's other professional sports leagues.

 

[FredMertz]

It will never be in MLS teams' interest to open the league. Something like 50% of a franchises value is the license to play in the top league. They are scarce and therefore they have a lot of value ($150 million is the going rate).

It's like saying NYC taxi drivers should get rid of the medallion system, because then there would be more taxi drivers and more people would take taxis and therefore current drivers would make more money despite the competition!

You don't willingly give up a monopoly. The only way MLS would be pressured into anything is if USL does so well that it somehow rises to the same level of play (in my analogy, USL is Uber; the better Uber does, the further the medallion prices dropped and became less relevant). Even then, MLS would hold out as long as it possibly can before any type of merger happens, and will play dirty if they ever start to feel realistically threatened (see Taxi drivers hurling rocks at Uber cars).

EDIT: Further to that, MLS will grow only until franchise fees maximize. After a certain point, demand will start shrinking because (1) the will appear less and less scarce, (2) the revenue potential of available markets will go down, and (3) diminishing returns on national media deals. The equilibrium is around 32 franchises based on the country's other professional sports leagues.

Simple solution: MLS and MLS2 with pro/rel and the MLS2 Franchise fees go in to a pool to compensate demoted teams.

You're welcome, Don Garber.

 

[sbrylski]

Simple solution: MLS and MLS2 with pro/rel and the MLS2 Franchise fees go in to a pool to compensate demoted teams.

You're welcome, Don Garber.

But at that point, why? You can structure a league of 30-36 teams without self-demoting anyone.

Honestly, it's probably more realistic for MLS to promote teams to some future LigaNA made up of 8-10 MLS teams and 8-10 LigaMX teams than it is for them to allow MLS teams to be demoted to USSF D2 or anything "less prestigious" than regular MLS.

 

[adam]

You'd have better luck getting people to use the metric system here than to back and fully understand pro/rel. Americans are the most fickle fans. Most don't identify with a local team the way people do in Europe. They don't see it as their neighborhood team or "I'm from New York, so therefor, I route for New York teams." Casual fans are who you have to market the game to and for most casual fans, they want to route for whoever is good at the time, not just where they are physically located. If a team were to go from top 3 and just missing MLS Cup to bottom 3 and being relegated, try explaining to casual fans how because of one bad season, the team they thought was going to be amazing is no longer there. Now they will forget about that team and jump to a new team. It's a dream at best to think this will ever change, barring some drastic change in ideology over the next 50 years.

I don’t get your logic. If US fans are mostly bandwagon fans (which I don’t agree), wouldn’t they just pick a new team if the one they chose because they were good or had a star player was relegated?

 

[adam]

But at that point, why? You can structure a league of 30-36 teams without self-demoting anyone.

Honestly, it's probably more realistic for MLS to promote teams to some future LigaNA made up of 8-10 MLS teams and 8-10 LigaMX teams than it is for them to allow MLS teams to be demoted to USSF D2 or anything "less prestigious" than regular MLS.

That’s a cool idea.

 

[FootyLovin]

There's no data to substantiate that claim either

That was my point. The questions I posed were examples of issues where neither of us have the info. They weren't a Socratic proof of my own point. And anyway my point was that I can see a path. Not that I think it is likely, just that it is plausible, and potentially financially rewarding.

I think mgarbowski brings up one of the best points which is that expansion teams may very well have contractual assurances against relegation for some period. Though I could also see workarounds for that where certain teams are protected for X years.

Anyway, all this is to say that I'm ready to buy some QFC merch already. When the hell is the online team store opening!?!?!

 

[adam]

That was my point. The questions I posed were examples of issues where neither of us have the info. They weren't a Socratic proof of my own point. And anyway my point was that I can see a path. Not that I think it is likely, just that it is plausible, and potentially financially rewarding.

I think mgarbowski brings up one of the best points which is that expansion teams may very well have contractual assurances against relegation for some period. Though I could also see workarounds for that where certain teams are protected for X years.

Anyway, all this is to say that I'm ready to buy some QFC merch already. When the hell is the online team store opening!?!?!

Can I interest you in a camo QFC hat?

PS I’m betting this club doesn’t screw its original members out of a chance to own the first team beanies

 

[adam]

Crazy thought: do you think Villa plays for QFC in their 1st season? Drogba style.