Well should "probability" in this case be based on common sense or a mathematical formula? It would certainly be poor considering all the promotional aspects if he wasn't in the top 5 at least. Its vital that this signing does not end in failure and there's positive signs it won't. Of course that's barring injuries because a fully fit Villa should have absolutely no concerns at all. If he's not the MVP he should be very close to it. Perhaps one of his NYCFC teammates will usurp him in the performance rankings.