2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Gotham Gator]

New Jersey has some tough games, but they have 3 of 4 at home, where they have been very very good - winning 10 of 14. We may need all 12 points to get past them. I think, however, we should reasonably expect to get 10, and that might be enough.

 

[Ulrich]

New Jersey has some tough games, but they have 3 of 4 at home, where they have been very very good - winning 10 of 14. We may need all 12 points to get past them. I think, however, we should reasonably expect to get 10, and that might be enough.

At this point with the way we've been playing lately, 10 pts is going to be a monumental challenge. Villa has lost his mojo and the team's goal-scoring talisman is currently getting electric stim on his calf. The drop off after those two is pretty significant.

 

[JayH]

At this point with the way we've been playing lately, 10 pts is going to be a monumental challenge. Villa has lost his mojo and the team's goal-scoring talisman is currently getting electric stim on his calf. The drop off after those two is pretty significant.

Agreed. We honestly haven't played well since the Colorado drubbing in July. I could be convinced to carve the LA win out of my statement, but other than that, it's been an ugly stretch (I refuse to carve-out DCU even with the late win).

 

[Sabo]

Whats interesting about our schedule compared to our rivals is that 3 out of the 4 of our remaining games are against teams that are out of the playoffs (I know not technically, but both the Fire and Dynamo booster announcers were saying so over the weekend and Columbus will be out by the final game).

Most likely we are going to see some different faces and different looks -- it might be difficult to prepare.

Its going to be even more important to come out strong, get the first goal and put our stamp on each of the remaining games.

 

[SoupInNYC]

FWIW, here is the predictions sheet I put together a couple weeks ago. I currently have us finishing 3rd, but I do think my predictions were fairly conservative for us (though we failed to get points I thought we would the past two weeks).

 

[gbservis]

As they say, once is luck, twice is coincidence, three times is skill. They have become true experts of the choke.

That was very enjoyable to watch. In some ways it looks just as much physical as mental. They don't have the legs to play that crazy press the whole game, I'm not sure any team in the world does, but they have no fall back plan. Seems like poor coaching to me, likely will only get worse as it get later in the season and players continue to ware down. Good news for us!

 

[Sabo]

I know there is a close to zero chance we wont make the playoffs at all but clinching a spot is always fun

New York City FC will clinch a berth in the MLS Cup Playoffs IF
New York City FC win vs. Chicago Fire on Friday
AND EITHER
New England Revolution tie or lose vs. Columbus Crew SC on Saturday
OR
Orlando City SC and D.C. United tie on Saturday

Edited: See SoupInNYC post below.

 

[canchon]

New Jersey has some tough games, but they have 3 of 4 at home, where they have been very very good - winning 10 of 14. We may need all 12 points to get past them. I think, however, we should reasonably expect to get 10, and that might be enough.

It all depends how RBNY performs. NYCFC > RBNY over final 4 games for the 2 seed. If RBNY drops one game, then their max total is 9 and NYCFC needs 3 wins and a tie to grab the 2 seed. Wouldn't bet on it.

If RBNY goes 2 wins and 2 ties, then NYCFC gets the 2 seed by winning 3 out of final 4 games. Still a tall order, but NYCFC can still drop a game.

For NYCFC to get the 2 seed with say 2-1-1, then RBNY has to drop 2 of its final 4 games and only get 6 points. Would require a massive change in form.

NYCFC coming out with a win over the Fire and a Montreal upset on the road over RBNY would be huge this weekend.

Keep in mind if NYCFC comes into the last game needing a win for the 2 seed, I'd like their chances against an eliminated CLB while RBNY plays Philly who most likely is jockeying for playoff position.

 

[Ulrich]

I know there is a close to zero chance we wont make the playoffs at all but clinching a spot is always fun

New York City FC will clinch a berth in the MLS Cup Playoffs IF
New York City FC win vs. Chicago Fire on Friday
AND EITHER
New England Revolution tie or lose vs. Columbus Crew SC on Saturday
OR
Orlando City SC and D.C. United tie on Saturday
OR
New York Red Bulls win vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday

Cross the last one off because I do not want NYCFC to secure a playoff spot at the hands of RB beating Montreal - I want the wonderful French-Canadian team's fans to taunt RB as they once again fall apart and loose or tie.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I know there is a close to zero chance we wont make the playoffs at all but clinching a spot is always fun

New York City FC will clinch a berth in the MLS Cup Playoffs IF
New York City FC win vs. Chicago Fire on Friday
AND EITHER
New England Revolution tie or lose vs. Columbus Crew SC on Saturday
OR
Orlando City SC and D.C. United tie on Saturday
OR
New York Red Bulls win vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday

Edited to remove this as my post was incorrect and someone could view this as confusing.

Full text is below in my other post as a quote for reference.

 

[Schwallacus]

Are Red Bull really that hot though? Two wins in their last five games, both of those wins being a mere 1-0 against Vancouver and New England. They also tied DCU twice and Toronto once, giving up multi-goal leads in the last two. Granted, we can't say much in losing to NE and being on a cool streak, but I don't see RBNJ being on a hot streak though.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Are Red Bull really that hot though? Two wins in their last five games, both of those wins being a mere 1-0 against Vancouver and New England. They also tied DCU twice and Toronto once, giving up multi-goal leads in the last two. Granted, we can't say much in losing to NE and being on a cool streak, but I don't see RBNJ being on a hot streak though.

This is a very valid point. True they haven't lost in quite a while, but their form the last several games has been ok, but nothing ecstatic.

 

[Ulrich]

This is a very valid point. True they haven't lost in quite a while, but their form the last several games has been ok, but nothing ecstatic.

All I'm saying is that if we get RB in the playoffs, the first half-dozen tackles we (cleanly) execute better be to dispossess Dax of the ball & his knee.

I'd also be curious how RB's defense handles a pure speed attack (similar to what we saw the end of last game) from the first minute:

Harrison---Villa---Shelton
-----TMac---Mendoza-----
-----Pirlo------Iraola-------
--Mata----Brillant----RJ--

This is assuming Lampard & Chanot don't come back from injury, Mena is deemed too much of a liability, Hernandez (see above), Mix is on a milk carton, and no other midfielders are rated by the coaching staff. TT is the only forward we plan to use - and I'd be ok with him/Mendoza swapping to start.

 

[FootyLovin]

It all depends how RBNJ performs. NYCFC > RBNJ over final 4 games for the 2 seed. If RBNJ drops one game, then their max total is 9 and NYCFC needs 3 wins and a tie to grab the 2 seed. Wouldn't bet on it.

If RBNJ goes 2 wins and 2 ties, then NYCFC gets the 2 seed by winning 3 out of final 4 games. Still a tall order, but NYCFC can still drop a game.

For NYCFC to get the 2 seed with say 2-1-1, then RBNJ has to drop 2 of its final 4 games and only get 6 points. Would require a massive change in form.

NYCFC coming out with a win over the Fire and a Montreal upset on the road over RBNJ would be huge this weekend.

Keep in mind if NYCFC comes into the last game needing a win for the 2 seed, I'd like their chances against an eliminated CLB while RBNJ plays Philly who most likely is jockeying for playoff position.

Good breakdown. Though one other possibility is NJ go 1-0-3. A real option since they haven't been losing. That also gets them to six points.

 

[adam]

All I'm saying is that if we get RB in the playoffs, the first half-dozen tackles we (cleanly) execute better be to dispossess Dax of the ball & his knee.

I'd also be curious how RB's defense handles a pure speed attack (similar to what we saw the end of last game) from the first minute:

Harrison---Villa---Shelton
-----TMac---Mendoza-----
-----Pirlo------Iraola-------
--Mata----Brillant----RJ--

This is assuming Lampard & Chanot don't come back from injury, Mena is deemed too much of a liability, Hernandez (see above), Mix is on a milk carton, and no other midfielders are rated by the coaching staff. TT is the only forward we plan to use - and I'd be ok with him/Mendoza swapping to start.

I like that lineup, but let's swap around Harrison & Mendoza. That way Jack can create while being fed by Pirlo, Iraola, TMac. And Mendoza can run wild on the wing, maximizing his speed.

 

[LionNYC]

Don't know if we should make a playoff thread rather than this qualify for the playoff thread, but no love in the MLS Digital office for NYCFC making it to MLS Cup.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...-cup-we-polled-newsroom-mls-now?autoplay=true

 

[SoupInNYC]

That last one isn't completely true.

In order for that one, we would need:
WIN against Chicago
Montreal LOSS against NJRB
Orlando WIN against DCU

If we were to beat Chicago, we would be at 48 points. Montreal could still pass us by winning their last 4 games and getting to 50 points and DCU could win their remaining 5 and get to 49.

Edited to add, Revs could also win out and either DCU or Orlando could win out. DCU/Orlando would reach 49 and NER would get to 48 and could edge us on goal differential (we would have the same number of wins).

Wanted to note here that the above post is actually incorrect. Reran everything after discovering I had an error and a NYCFC win and NJRB loss does put us in.

 

[Ulrich]

Wanted to note here that the above post is actually incorrect. Reran everything after discovering I had an error and a NYCFC win and NJRB loss does put us in.

That's ok, because that combo puts us above them and that's really what matters each week.

 

[Gotham Gator]

According to an article on the MLS website, this is what we would need to make the playoffs.

1. Win over Chicago

- AND -​

2. Either

a) Orlando and DC tie - OR
b) Columbus beats New England - OR
c) NJ beats Montreal​

Now, we know the MLS guys are not 100% accurate on this stuff, but it seems correct to me. The only one that seems strange is Montreal losing, but Montreal has games left against New England and Orlando, so perhaps if the Impact lose, they would either put one of those teams below the line or end up below the line themselves.

Let's hope Orlando and DC tie - that's probably best for us. I like Columbus, but I don't want them coming into Yankee Stadium for that last game with any hope they can get into the playoffs.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...toronto-red-bulls-nycfc-and-galaxy-can-clinch

 

[LionNYC]

It would be cooler if we played at 8 PM on Saturday rather than Friday so that if a result we need to put us in the playoffs does occur, they could put that on the video screen, so the fans know that after 90' we would clinch a playoff spot.

If we do clinch this weekend, it's going to be displayed on a social media post.