2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Paul]

We may be doing it with a depleted roster. Any word on Lampard's injury? even with the league's roster freeze in effect, we can still bring in a new player that won't affect our Cap hit at all - hell, his contract is already agreed to and he's living in NYC - I think he even practices with the team most days just to stay in shape.

NYCFC fcked up long ago by not coming clean with this situation. Points have been lost because PV refuses to keep the utmost amount of talent available on the bench. I mentioned it on another post, but PV's stubbornness with this situation is making him look worse than the biggest asshole manager in Europe, Mourinho. Jose never admits blame for bad decisions or results, and PV is taking the same approach with all of his decisions with Mix, Hernandez, and Saunders. Throw in the other two guys jettisoned that are having career years with their new teams, and PV needs to not only take a bit of humble pie, but also ask for seconds and home delivery.

Preach!

 

[Seth]

We either root for a tie (which helps with finishing 1sr) or a Toronto win (which helps with finishing 2nd). The disaster is if RBNJ win. That puts us back in 3rd.

Personally, I am rooting for a Toronto win. It is going to be hard to catch them in first, and the real key is to finish at least 2nd and get the bye.

Toronto was down 3-1 against New Jersey with maybe 20 minutes to go. Now 3-3 in the 88th minute.

 

[JayH]

Toronto was down 3-1 against New Jersey with maybe 20 minutes to go. Now 3-3 in the 88th minute.

What a game!

 

[Ulrich]

What a game!

If not for the own-goal.....

 

[Kenny]

We and NYRB have the same record. 12-9-9. Goal diff, well that's another story, lol

 

[Ulrich]

We and NJRB have the same record. 12-9-9. Goal diff, well that's another story, lol

The differences the Red Bull wedding. Upped their GD and killed ours. Remove that and we'd be ahead of them. And yet everybody on the team wanted to spin it that those 3pts were no more important than any others, but the last 4-5 goals sure were.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Latest strength of schedule analysis. NY has the edge in quality of opponents, but Toronto and NJ have the edge in home games remaining.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Here are the remaining schedules for each team in the Top 5.

Toronto
vs. Philly
vs. Orlando
vs. DCU
at Montreal
vs. Chicago

NJ Red Fools
vs. Montreal
vs. Philly
vs. Columbus
at Philly

NYCFC
vs. Chicago
at Houston
at DCU
vs. Columbus

Philadelphia
at Toronto
at NJRB
vs. Orlando
vs. NJRB

Montreal
at NJRB
vs. San Jose
at Orlando
vs. Toronto
at New England

 

[Gotham Gator]

If you are wondering when all the teams will be on an equal number of games, both Toronto and Montreal have midweek games on September 28. After that, everyone is on equal terms.

 

[Ulrich]

Latest strength of schedule analysis. NY has the edge in quality of opponents, but Toronto and NJ have the edge in home games remaining.

View attachment 5778

The X-factor is RB's mental state after yesterday's total meltdown. They don't have any easy games remaining and they have to be hearing voices in their heads during each game - I'm not sure how it's possible, but they've actually fallen apart more than we have. And they are still playing CCL games so they're splitting their focus and roster fitness.

Edit- I'll add that Toronto doesn't have any easy games left except for Chicago, and they're playing much better than any other time this year. Their game against Orlando may be the only time I root for Kreis, and that should be a massive tilt for Toronto to overcome.

 

[JayH]

The X-factor is RB's mental state after yesterday's total meltdown. They don't have any easy games remaining and they have to be hearing voices in their heads during each game - I'm not sure how it's possible, but they've actually fallen apart more than we have. And they are still playing CCL games so they're splitting their focus and roster fitness.

As they say, once is luck, twice is coincidence, three times is skill. They have become true experts of the choke.

 

[joe]

We may be doing it with a depleted roster. Any word on Lampard's injury? even with the league's roster freeze in effect, we can still bring in a new player that won't affect our Cap hit at all - hell, his contract is already agreed to and he's living in NYC - I think he even practices with the team most days just to stay in shape.

Every few weeks I have to stop myself from writing a description of Mix in the Players Wanted thread.

 

[Ulrich]

As they say, once is luck, twice is coincidence, three times is skill. They have become true experts of the choke.

I also wonder how long BWP can go before he picks up an injury, and whether Dax is being rushed back too soon (both that I mind if he is)??? Let Sacha get called into the MNT and play the friendlies - I'm all for extra minutes on his legs. I'd even lobby England to call in BWP just to get a look at him in camp

 

[canchon]

The X-factor is RB's mental state after yesterday's total meltdown. They don't have any easy games remaining and they have to be hearing voices in their heads during each game - I'm not sure how it's possible, but they've actually fallen apart more than we have. And they are still playing CCL games so they're splitting their focus and roster fitness.

And yet as much as RBNY has melted down and blown leads, they still haven't lost a game since losing to us back in July. I think that's now something like 15 or 16 unbeaten in all competitions. They are still very very good and based on current form and home cooking should be favored for one of the top 2 spots.

For NYCFC it's simple - the team needs to outperform RBNY over the last 4 games to get a bye. That will almost certainly mean at least one road win. NYCFC might need 10 of the final 12 points to get the bye considering all the home cooking TOR and RBNY have left.

 

[canchon]

I also wonder how long BWP can go before he picks up an injury, and whether Dax is being rushed back too soon (both that I mind if he is)??? Let Sacha get called into the MNT and play the friendlies - I'm all for extra minutes on his legs. I'd even lobby England to call in BWP just to get a look at him in camp

In the last 3 seasons BWP has played 32, 34, and all 30 games so far this year. No reason to think he would be injury-prone. And most likely he's going to win the Golden Boot. I'm not sure if it's RBNY's system or what but he's now become the only striker in MLS history to have 2 20-goal seasons. At some point need to acknowledge that RBNY has the league's best and most consistent striker.

 

[Ulrich]

In the last 3 seasons BWP has played 32, 34, and all 30 games so far this year. No reason to think he would be injury-prone. And most likely he's going to win the Golden Boot. I'm not sure if it's RBNJ's system or what but he's now become the only striker in MLS history to have 2 20-goal seasons. At some point need to acknowledge that RBNJ has the league's best and most consistent striker.

It doesn't hurt that he gets to play us 3 times each year - nice way to pad his stats

 

[LionNYC]

Let's hope New Jersey and Toronto play some of the most boring, unexciting soccer and draw every match 0-0 that will cause American sports fans to laugh at the game. And we play some beautiful Vieira football and win like soon to be MLS Cup champions.

 

[LostAnvil]

https://twitter.com/x/status/777328733380186112

 

[canchon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/777328733380186112

A win over Chicago and some dropped points by the Revs/DCU and NYCFC could be in by end of this weekend. Nice.

Speaking of playoffs, anybody know when we'll get info on playoff tix?

 

[SoupInNYC]

A win over Chicago and some dropped points by the Revs/DCU and NYCFC could be in by end of this weekend. Nice.

Speaking of playoffs, anybody know when we'll get info on playoff tix?

A win over Chicago and a draw in the DCU-Orlando match OR a win over Chicago and a NER loss/draw puts us in the playoffs (considering that would mean one of DCU/Orlando lose).