Yep. I think winning the Supporters' Shield is off the table. But getting to Top 2 or 3 among the U.S. teams remains a possibility - and that gets us in CCL.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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Yep. I think winning the Supporters' Shield is off the table. But getting to Top 2 or 3 among the U.S. teams remains a possibility - and that gets us in CCL.
I agree with you, and really don't think we will be able to keep pace with Colorado, but they do draw quite a lot. So I do think that chance exists out there. If we were to win out (a big if, but not too crazy considering our opponents), Colorado can realistically go:
Draw at home vs Portland
Draw at Houston
Win at home vs San Jose
Loss at Portland
Win at home vs Houston
That gives them 8 vs our 9 if we were to win out (now I know in the scenario I laid out that would have us winning at Houston and Colorado drawing there, but it could happen).
Here is the latest strength of schedule breakdown. Note that we no longer have the easiest schedule by opponent points per game. This is partly because our last 3 opponents are all on a good recent run of form and have improved their overall points per game a bit.
Here are the remaining schedules for each team in the Top 5.
Toronto
vs. Orlando
vs. DCU
at Montreal
vs. Chicago
NJ Red Fools
vs. Philly
vs. Columbus
at Philly
NYCFC
at Houston
at DCU
vs. Columbus
Philadelphia
at NJRB
vs. Orlando
vs. NJRB
Montreal
vs. San Jose
at Orlando
vs. Toronto
at New England
Toronto
vs. Orlando
vs. DCU
at Montreal
vs. Chicago
NJ Red Fools
vs. Philly
vs. Columbus
at Philly
NYCFC
at Houston
at DCU
vs. Columbus
Philadelphia
at NJRB
vs. Orlando
vs. NJRB
Montreal
vs. San Jose
at Orlando
vs. Toronto
at New England
Orlando is faltering, DC is getting hot, Philadelphia is staying the course, Montreal could slide below the red line with their form. We're not going to get 1st place as I can see Toronto picking up at least 10 points, but those Philadelphia-New Jersey matches are going to be HUGE in determining second place. I'm hoping that Philadelphia is going to win both times. And we're going to be big wins, they're going to win by so much.
I count COL as having 4 matches remaining, not 5. I just can't see how they even get a point in Portland just 3 days after playing a home match in Denver & Portland fighting for their playoffs lives. It's also 1,200 miles of travel.
That's just under 19hours by car, but factor in going by bike and it'll take 5days.
I agree we really need Philly to take a few points off RB in those two games. Unfortunately Phillys form has been pretty bad 0-2-2 in their last 4. One of those losses was 0-3 to Chicago a team that looked like one of the worst in the league Friday night. Hopefully Philly can find some of that early season magic they had when they were at the top of the table.
Our schedule doesn't look as easy now with Columbus extinguishing a red hot New England side, Houston trying to do nothing but mess with playoff teams, and D.C. Who have found their scoring form recently. Hopefully Patty Mullins can do us a solid and not score on his old team. Anyways, the good news is that we are in regardless, so thankfully no matter how these games turn out we'll at least still be in the playoffs.
Also why are we one of the only playoff teams that isn't playing Orlando when their defense is looking more and more like a dumpster fire. It's not fair
We had 3 chances against Orlando and pissed them all away. Nobody to blame but ourselves for that one.
Well, Colorado are solid defensively, so that keeps them in most games (Yankee Stadium seemingly the exception).
Tied Chicago at home early in the year. Lost at Columbus. There are many time where we threw points in the garbage. But that's soccer and MLS.
Next year we'll get a minimum of 90 points and be promoted to Liga MX.
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They are solid defensively. But will their starting backline, or even Howard play on 3 days rest with the playoffs only 2 weeks out? And forget JJ, he's to old for that. I see them playing their bench vs Portland, who will really need those points if Seattle creeps back in. And I can't see Colorado leaving there with any points. But this is the MLS...
Yep, no doubt - soccer has more upsets and unexpected results than almost any other sport. But, we pissed away a win against Orlando by not playing to the final whistle and then just played a stinker down in Florida. The first game, where we lost 1-0 despite having a lot more possession and chances - is just one of those weird results.
I thought it would be fun to update this. Nice site and a good find by Sabo.
SS Win: 0.8%
EC Win: 8%
2-Seed: 27%
3-Seed: 61%
4-Seed: 4%
5-Seed: <1%
Points in last 3 matches & odds of making Top 2
9 - 98%
7 - 85%
6 - 71%
5 - 55%
4 - 32%
3 - 18%
2 - 13%
1 - 1%
0 - 0%
We definitely want the top 2, no question. But if NYCFC gets the 3 seed, I'd definitely want Montreal more than either a resurgent DCU, the Revs who are playing much better now, or even (gasp) Columbus if they go on a crazy run and make the playoffs. I also wouldn't want to see Orlando given how they seem to have NYCFC's number.
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