2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Gotham Gator]

This is from the MLS Red Line Report. It differs from my calculations because it takes into account whether the game is played home or away. For example, in my calculations, the Dallas game counts as 1.76 ppg for one of our opponents, because that's what Dallas averages for the season. In their calculations, the Dallas game counts as 1.21 ppg because that is what Dallas averages on the road. Accordingly, this is a little more accurate, I think. You will see that Toronto has a much easier schedule since it is playing almost all its remaining games at home.

 

[Sabo]

No disrespect to you all but this thread stinks without mgarbowski

First of all that is totally disrespectful.

I know Garbowski is still reading posts and I reopened this thread to trj to suck him back in -- I know he is biting his tongue to keep from chiming in but respect his decision to saj nothing at all instead of chiming in.

As my own counterprotest I am going to change all mj 'y' to 'j' on the forum until he posts again.

See jou later.

 

[FootyLovin]

First of all that is totally disrespectful.

I know Garbowski is still reading posts and I reopened this thread to trj to suck him back in -- I know he is biting his tongue to keep from chiming in but respect his decision to saj nothing at all instead of chiming in.

As my own counterprotest I am going to change all mj 'y' to 'j' on the forum until he posts again.

See jou later.

Do you think he's still running all the numbers and just not posting them? I'm torn between imagining him continuing to slave away at NYCFC analysis with all the frustration of having no outlet for it and imagining him letting go completely and rediscovering things like family, the outdoors, and sunshine with the 20-30 hours/week he got back.

 

[Sabo]

Do you think he's still running all the numbers and just not posting them? I'm torn between imagining him continuing to slave away at NYCFC analysis with all the frustration of having no outlet for it and imagining him letting go completely and rediscovering things like family, the outdoors, and sunshine with the 20-30 hours/week he got back.

I can see Garbowski is on here. I think he has all the numbers in his head and just wont share.

He is in the Pigeon Cup in the H2H Fantasy League. Hopefully he does well on the other side of the bracket and can't help but smack talk fantasy.

 

[Sabo]

Sports Club Stats updated their monte carlo analysis which is interesting.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

1 Seed 12%
2 Seed 31%
3 Seed 40%
4 Seed 13%

Most Likely First Round Opponent: Impact

 

[Viewfrom226]

Sports Club Stats updated their monte carlo analysis which is interesting.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

1 Seed 12%
2 Seed 31%
3 Seed 40%
4 Seed 13%

Most Likely First Round Opponent: Impact

Pretty interesting that, if we take care of business and win our three homes games, we are 75% to get top 2, which is my real goal at this point (anything more would be unexpected benefit). That is actually a bit higher than I would have thought. Nick a point in one of the road games, and it goes to 85%.

That being said, I would probably put our remaining points over/under at somewhere around 7.5, which puts on right on the border between 2nd or 3rd being more likely.

 

[canchon]

Sports Club Stats updated their monte carlo analysis which is interesting.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

1 Seed 12%
2 Seed 31%
3 Seed 40%
4 Seed 13%

Most Likely First Round Opponent: Impact

Yup, this basically says what we all know: #1 seed is basically gone; if NYCFC turns it on they get the 2 seed and the bye, if they continue to muddle along like they have been the last 5 games they will most likely get the 3 seed and play the knockout game.

3 seed is most likely and that makes sense: the two teams they are fighting with for the top 2 seeds are 7-1-1 in their last 9 (Toronto) and undefeated in 11 straight games (RBNY). Meanwhile the Pigeons have just been outplayed by ORL/DCU/NER.

 

[JayH]

Pretty interesting that, if we take care of business and win our three homes games, we are 75% to get top 2, which is my real goal at this point (anything more would be unexpected benefit). That is actually a bit higher than I would have thought. Nick a point in one of the road games, and it goes to 85%.

That being said, I would probably put our remaining points over/under at somewhere around 7.5, which puts on right on the border between 2nd or 3rd being more likely.

I have a feeling that if we beat Dallas tomorrow, our final game will be a meaningful one to determine 2 v. 3. Tomorrow is a tremendous one. I expected the wavy line of performance quality that we have seen, so it's the perfect time for a spike.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I think we will be in it for the 2nd position, and maybe even 1st, through the Final Sunday. The difference is whether or not we go into that game controlling our own destiny.

 

[LionNYC]

So what's the result we want: RB Win? Toronto Win? Tie?

If we're fighting for 1st place, I think the RB win would better serve us
If we're fighting for 2nd place, I think a Toronto win would better serve us

 

[Ulrich]

So what's the result we want: RB Win? Toronto Win? Tie?

If we're fighting for 1st place, I think the RB win would better serve us
If we're fighting for 2nd place, I think a Toronto win would better serve us

Tie. Take a pt out of the equation

 

[SoupInNYC]

So what's the result we want: RB Win? Toronto Win? Tie?

If we're fighting for 1st place, I think the RB win would better serve us
If we're fighting for 2nd place, I think a Toronto win would better serve us

I want a Toronto win the most. Better for the race for a bye. Toronto is already 2 points up with a game in hand.

That and it's always great watching NJ lose

 

[FootyLovin]

Silver lining from yesterday's results as far as CCL. RSL loses at home. If we can beat RBNJ and RSL from here to the end, then we will end top 4 domestics in SS race.

Hope for what you will in NJ/TOR, there's a silver lining rationale no matter what the outcome.

Of course, we now have to start winning again.

 

[Ulrich]

Silver lining from yesterday's results as far as CCL. RSL loses at home. If we can beat RBNJ and RSL from here to the end, then we will end top 4 domestics in SS race.

Hope for what you will in NJ/TOR, there's a silver lining rationale no matter what the outcome.

Of course, we now have to start winning again.

We may be doing it with a depleted roster. Any word on Lampard's injury? even with the league's roster freeze in effect, we can still bring in a new player that won't affect our Cap hit at all - hell, his contract is already agreed to and he's living in NYC - I think he even practices with the team most days just to stay in shape.

 

[FootyLovin]

We may be doing it with a depleted roster. Any word on Lampard's injury? even with the league's roster freeze in effect, we can still bring in a new player that won't affect our Cap hit at all - hell, his contract is already agreed to and he's living in NYC - I think he even practices with the team most days just to stay in shape.

I do think that if Frank is out for any extended time (or maybe even one game), it will become very difficult to continue the current No Mix Process and the silence that surrounds it.

 

[Ulrich]

I do think that if Frank is out for any extended time (or maybe even one game), it will become very difficult to continue the current No Mix Process and the silence that surrounds it.

NYCFC fcked up long ago by not coming clean with this situation. Points have been lost because PV refuses to keep the utmost amount of talent available on the bench. I mentioned it on another post, but PV's stubbornness with this situation is making him look worse than the biggest asshole manager in Europe, Mourinho. Jose never admits blame for bad decisions or results, and PV is taking the same approach with all of his decisions with Mix, Hernandez, and Saunders. Throw in the other two guys jettisoned that are having career years with their new teams, and PV needs to not only take a bit of humble pie, but also ask for seconds and home delivery.

 

[Christopher Jee]

NYCFC fcked up long ago by not coming clean with this situation. Points have been lost because PV refuses to keep the utmost amount of talent available on the bench. I mentioned it on another post, but PV's stubbornness with this situation is making him look worse than the biggest asshole manager in Europe, Mourinho. Jose never admits blame for bad decisions or results, and PV is taking the same approach with all of his decisions with Mix, Hernandez, and Saunders. Throw in the other two guys jettisoned that are having career years with their new teams, and PV needs to not only take a bit of humble pie, but also ask for seconds and home delivery.

Eh, I feel like the Mullins and Poku deals (if those are the players you're talking about) were win-win-wins – players who didn't fit into our system who are thriving in more appropriate situations who we got good deals on.

I'm still assuming best intentions.

 

[JayH]

Is the consensus still to root for a tie in the NJ Tor game? Isn't it reasonable to instead root against the team we think is more likely going to end up at 2 or 3 between the two teams, ie NJ?

 

[Gotham Gator]

We either root for a tie (which helps with finishing 1sr) or a Toronto win (which helps with finishing 2nd). The disaster is if RBNJ win. That puts us back in 3rd.

Personally, I am rooting for a Toronto win. It is going to be hard to catch them in first, and the real key is to finish at least 2nd and get the bye.

 

[JayH]

We either root for a tie (which helps with finishing 1sr) or a Toronto win (which helps with finishing 2nd). The disaster is if RBNJ win. That puts us back in 3rd.

Personally, I am rooting for a Toronto win. It is going to be hard to catch them in first, and the real key is to finish at least 2nd and get the bye.

That's where I am at as well.