2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[Seven]

Frankly, right now, there is no numerical narrative.

We fucking suck at this point. Doesn't matter where we finish if we don't get back some of the guys who don't suck like a Hoover.

We are not that bad. No we aren't playing the best right now, and certainly not playing how we need to if we hope to get anywhere in the playoffs, but we have still been getting results.

Just look at the rest of the league. Other then Toronto, no one else has gone out and been dominating. Chicago had injuries to 3 of their 4 backline starters (sound familiar?) and lost 4 straight games and 6 of 7. RSL earlier in the year, when they had as many injuries as we do right now, went on a big losing streak and were bottom feeders for a while.

Now I agree that if Herrera is done for the season (not saying that he is, we haven't actually heard anything) we're gonna be in trouble come the playoffs, but no point freaking out about that until we hear more about his injury.

Here's a question though. We all are hoping for the 2nd seed and the first round bye so the team doesn't have to play midweek, but I wonder if the team would be better off hosting that midweek game, winning it (duh) and then getting to host the first game of the next round, instead of the second.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

We are not that bad. No we aren't playing the best right now, and certainly not playing how we need to if we hope to get anywhere in the playoffs, but we have still been getting results.

Just look at the rest of the league. Other then Toronto, no one else has gone out and been dominating. Chicago had injuries to 3 of their 4 backline starters (sound familiar?) and lost 4 straight games and 6 of 7. RSL earlier in the year, when they had as many injuries as we do right now, went on a big losing streak and were bottom feeders for a while.

Now I agree that if Herrera is done for the season (not saying that he is, we haven't actually heard anything) we're gonna be in trouble come the playoffs, but no point freaking out about that until we hear more about his injury.

Here's a question though. We all are hoping for the 2nd seed and the first round bye so the team doesn't have to play midweek, but I wonder if the team would be better off hosting that midweek game, winning it (duh) and then getting to host the first game of the next round, instead of the second.

Okay. We haven't played well in over a month. We keep racking up injuries. We suck right now. I don't think that's freaking out. I thought it was just facts.

You said the same thing with additional words around it, so is word count what determines freaking out?

Eta: to be clear, I'm Zen af about it all. I said when Herrera went down, if he didn't come back, the season is over. I've accepted that. So none of this pathetic shit bugs me. In fact, it doesn't even intrigue me all that much.

If we have healthy Ring and Herrera, doesn't matter too much where we finish. If we don't, same. Wake me when the playoffs get here.

 

[LionNYC]

I'm really, really down on Finland, Luxembourg, Spain, and Venezuela right now. They've killed our team. And I'm quite concerned about that damn international break in the middle of the playoffs because I'm convinced we'll get some guys back healthy and then just lose them again.
Assuming we don't blow out of the playoffs before the break that is.

Upon the start of the Playoffs, the front office will hold onto the passports of all players. If we should play Montreal or Toronto then we'll figure something out.

 

[LionNYC]

PlayoffStatus.com puts us projecting to finish 2nd in the East at 51%.

Our dream scenario for the following week would be NYC defeats Houston, Philadelphia beat Chicago, and Montreal beat Atlanta. That would put us at 75%. If all goes to hell, it drops to 29%.

We also have playoff clinching opportunities starting this week...

 

[Ulrich]

I'm really, really down on Finland, Luxembourg, Spain, and Venezuela right now. They've killed our team. And I'm quite concerned about that damn international break in the middle of the playoffs because I'm convinced we'll get some guys back healthy and then just lose them again.
Assuming we don't blow out of the playoffs before the break that is.

Reyna should just tell the international squads 'no' from here out for this year. We've suffered nearly every injury this season because of callups and the blame is on those coaches/staffs.

 

[mgarbowski]

PlayoffStatus.com puts us projecting to finish 2nd in the East at 51%.

Our dream scenario for the following week would be NYC defeats Houston, Philadelphia beat Chicago, and Montreal beat Atlanta. That would put us at 75%. If all goes to hell, it drops to 29%.

We also have playoff clinching opportunities starting this week...
View attachment 7499

Interesting that even though we're at 51%, Chicago is only at 28, with Atlanta at 18% and RB at 3%. I discount ATL and RB more than they do.

Where did the clinching scenarios come from? I agree with them btw. NYC has clinched over New England, Orlando, Philadelphia and DC. Magic Number for the Crew is 6 and for the Impact it is 4.

 

[LionNYC]

Interesting that even though we're at 51%, Chicago is only at 28, with Atlanta at 18% and RB at 3%. I discount ATL and RB more than they do.

Where did the clinching scenarios come from? I agree with them btw. NYC has clinched over New England, Orlando, Philadelphia and DC. Magic Number for the Crew is 6 and for the Impact it is 4.

http://playoffstatus.com/mls/nycityfcclinch.html

 

[mgarbowski]

Failure to win either of the last 2 games created an opening for NYCFC to fall below second place. Here is a measurement of how much.

Assume NYCFC finishes 2-2-1 for 7 more points and 58 total. While it's not inconceivable they do worse, that's fairly poor. It is 1.40 PPG. Combined with the last 2 games it would mean a 1.14 PPG over the last 7 games of the season. It also means probably winning both remaining home games (including Hartford) and just one road draw result in the final 3 Away. Here is what the teams chasing NYC would need to do to finish ahead of NYC:

Columbus cannot overtake NYC even if it finishes 4-0-0 if NYC gets 58 points.
Red Bulls need to go 5-0-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and NYC currently is ahead by 8 on GD, which RB potentially makes up with this record. Otherwise RB must finish 6-0-0.
Atlanta needs to go 5-2-0. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Atlanta currently is 9 ahead on GD.
Chicago needs to finish 3-1-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Chicago currently is 2 ahead on GD. With a better record over the last 5, it probably keeps that lead, unless its loss is big or NYC has some lopsided wins.

The two points dropped in Colorado would have forced Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7, assuming the same 2-2-1 finish by NYC. NYC can make that up those 2 points by winning 3 of its remaining games for a minimum of 60 points which also force Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7.

With that in mind, if NYC does each of the following 3 things it is very, very hard for anyone to catch them:
(1) Beat Houston in Hartford.
(2) Win Away against basically-out-of-it Montreal or New England.
(3) Beat Columbus at home. Of course this means second place is likely not clinched until the season ends. That probably requires winning 3 of the next 4 at least. Making one of those wins against the Fire helps, but still needs a few other events to clinch before the last game.

 

[LionNYC]

Of course this means second place is likely not clinched until the season ends.

It was the same way last year as we played Columbus in the final game of the season. That's what Decision Day is for. At least it makes it exciting.

 

[LionNYC]

The other thing to think about is the seeding for the rest of the playoffs. It's going to be six teams: Toronto, NYCFC, Chicago, Atlanta, Red Bulls, Atlanta, Columbus.

If we are the 2nd seed then we will face the highest seed between 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5. I'd honestly rather see Chicago be 3rd and Atlanta be 4th as Atlanta is the team I am most afraid of the 4 knockout round teams. Let Toronto play 4 seed Atlanta.

 

[mgarbowski]

The other thing to think about is the seeding for the rest of the playoffs. It's going to be six teams: Toronto, NYCFC, Chicago, Atlanta, Red Bulls, Atlanta, Columbus.

If we are the 2nd seed then we will face the highest seed between 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5. I'd honestly rather see Chicago be 3rd and Atlanta be 4th as Atlanta is the team I am most afraid of the 4 knockout round teams. Let Toronto play 4 seed Atlanta.

Which means we would rather Chicago not fold and make it easy for us.
Atlanta has 2 more games to play than Chicago, and has to win 2 more games to finish ahead of them. If Chicago wins 3, Atlanta must win 5.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Failure to win either of the last 2 games created an opening for NYCFC to fall below second place. Here is a measurement of how much.

Assume NYCFC finishes 2-2-1 for 7 more points and 58 total. While it's not inconceivable they do worse, that's fairly poor. It is 1.40 PPG. Combined with the last 2 games it would mean a 1.14 PPG over the last 7 games of the season. It also means probably winning both remaining home games (including Hartford) and just one road draw result in the final 3 Away. Here is what the teams chasing NYC would need to do to finish ahead of NYC:

Columbus cannot overtake NYC even if it finishes 4-0-0 if NYC gets 58 points.
Red Bulls need to go 5-0-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and NYC currently is ahead by 8 on GD, which RB potentially makes up with this record. Otherwise RB must finish 6-0-0.
Atlanta needs to go 5-2-0. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Atlanta currently is 9 ahead on GD.
Chicago needs to finish 3-1-1-. This would end up tied on points, tied on wins, and Chicago currently is 2 ahead on GD. With a better record over the last 5, it probably keeps that lead, unless its loss is big or NYC has some lopsided wins.

The two points dropped in Colorado would have forced Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7, assuming the same 2-2-1 finish by NYC. NYC can make that up those 2 points by winning 3 of its remaining games for a minimum of 60 points which also force Chicago to win 4 of its last 5, and Atlanta to win 6 of 7.

With that in mind, if NYC does each of the following 3 things it is very, very hard for anyone to catch them:
(1) Beat Houston in Hartford.
(2) Win Away against basically-out-of-it Montreal or New England.
(3) Beat Columbus at home. Of course this means second place is likely not clinched until the season ends. That probably requires winning 3 of the next 4 at least. Making one of those wins against the Fire helps, but still needs a few other events to clinch before the last game.

I think you're looking for some easy points in the 3 things you listed above, but another HUGE thing to do is to not lose in Chicago. A win obviously is great, but a draw to prevent them from moving up on us would be massive as well.

 

[SoupInNYC]

The other thing to think about is the seeding for the rest of the playoffs. It's going to be six teams: Toronto, NYCFC, Chicago, Atlanta, Red Bulls, Atlanta, Columbus.

If we are the 2nd seed then we will face the highest seed between 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5. I'd honestly rather see Chicago be 3rd and Atlanta be 4th as Atlanta is the team I am most afraid of the 4 knockout round teams. Let Toronto play 4 seed Atlanta.

So because I get bored and do shit like this, I looked at the remaining schedules and have the following predicted finishes:

East
1. Toronto - 72 points
2. NYCFC - 60 points
3. Chicago - 56 points
4. Atlanta - 53 points
5. Columbus - 53 points
6. NJRB - 52 points
7. Montreal - 49 points

West
1. Sounders - 57 points
2. SKC - 55 points
3. Timbers - 54 points
4. Dallas - 51 points
5. Vancouver - 51 points
6. Houston - 51 points
7. San Jose - 43 points

(note that I have Dallas finishing ahead of Houston and Vancouver even though they are behind them both by a decent margin on GD, because I feel as though they are more likely to gain points I have them dropping and I think Houston and Vancouver are more capable of dropping points I have them winning)

On the Eastern front, I have things finishing well for us. A lot of this is probably some bias when picking results, but whatever.

 

[mgarbowski]

So because I get bored and do shit like this, I looked at the remaining schedules and have the following predicted finishes:

East
1. Toronto - 72 points
2. NYCFC - 60 points
3. Chicago - 56 points
4. Atlanta - 53 points
5. Columbus - 53 points
6. NJRB - 52 points
7. Montreal - 49 points

West
1. Sounders - 57 points
2. SKC - 55 points
3. Timbers - 54 points
4. Dallas - 51 points
5. Vancouver - 51 points
6. Houston - 51 points
7. San Jose - 43 points

(note that I have Dallas finishing ahead of Houston and Vancouver even though they are behind them both by a decent margin on GD, because I feel as though they are more likely to gain points I have them dropping and I think Houston and Vancouver are more capable of dropping points I have them winning)

On the Eastern front, I have things finishing well for us. A lot of this is probably some bias when picking results, but whatever.

I hope you took care to make all your results consistent for both teams.
You also inspired me to do the same, but only for the East, because I don't care enough about the West. I was even a bit more optimistic than you for NYC's points. I have RB sneaking up to 4th, and generally I think I had multiple teams doing better at the expense of Montreal.

1. Toronto - 75 points
2. NYCFC - 61 points
3. Chicago - 57 points
4. RB - 54 points
5. Atlanta - 53 points
6. Columbus - 50 points
7. Montreal - 45 points

Imagine getting 57 points and finishing 3rd -- 18 points behind the leader.

 

[Ulrich]

I hope you took care to make all your results consistent for both teams.
You also inspired me to do the same, but only for the East, because I don't care enough about the West. I was even a bit more optimistic than you for NYC's points. I have RB sneaking up to 4th, and generally I think I had multiple teams doing better at the expense of Montreal.

1. Toronto - 75 points
2. NYCFC - 61 points
3. Chicago - 57 points
4. RB - 54 points
5. Atlanta - 53 points
6. Columbus - 50 points
7. Montreal - 45 points

Imagine getting 57 points and finishing 3rd -- 18 points behind the leader.

I would be very content with your numbers. And it'd be fascinating to watch RB/Atlanta to see if the physical play of RB can disrupt ATL's attack before their defense cracks.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

I would be very content with your numbers. And it'd be fascinating to watch RB/Atlanta to see if the physical play of RB can disrupt ATL's attack before their defense cracks.

I think it would be better for us if ATL edges RBNJ for 4th. Then, ATL gets to host what would be back to back games versus RB & Toronto.

That's a dream scenario because ATL could possibly put TOR to bed in game 1 before they even make the trip up north.

Anything that keeps us aligned with an opening round of Chicago or Columbus is a win (as far as positive scenarios, not guaranteed results).

 

[SoupInNYC]

I think it would be better for us if ATL edges RBNJ for 4th. Then, ATL gets to host what would be back to back games versus RB & Toronto.

That's a dream scenario because ATL could possibly put TOR to bed in game 1 before they even make the trip up north.

Anything that keeps us aligned with an opening round of Chicago or Columbus is a win (as far as positive scenarios, not guaranteed results).

That's why it would be great if Columbus can sneak into the 5th spot. That way it puts Atlanta or RB in 6th, so if Chicago gets knocked off, Toronto gets Atlanta or NJ. Whereas there is a shot we can still get Columbus.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

That's why it would be great if Columbus can sneak into the 5th spot. That way it puts Atlanta or RB in 6th, so if Chicago gets knocked off, Toronto gets Atlanta or NJ. Whereas there is a shot we can still get Columbus.

I am starting to think ATL is more likely to end up 3rd than 5th or 6th. I am trying to balance what I hope for and what I think to land on an outcome that is both positive and reasonably rational.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think it would be better for us if ATL edges RBNJ for 4th. Then, ATL gets to host what would be back to back games versus RB & Toronto.

That's a dream scenario because ATL could possibly put TOR to bed in game 1 before they even make the trip up north.

Anything that keeps us aligned with an opening round of Chicago or Columbus is a win (as far as positive scenarios, not guaranteed results).

Makes sense. Hard to figure out who has more than just a puncher's chance at beating Toronto. I figure Atlanta and NYC if healthy, though both would still be substantial underdogs, and that might be it. SKC maybe can go for a 0-0 draw in a cup final match-up (which is what they got way back in March) and hope to win a spot kick shootout.

That's why it would be great if Columbus can sneak into the 5th spot. That way it puts Atlanta or RB in 6th, so if Chicago gets knocked off, Toronto gets Atlanta or NJ. Whereas there is a shot we can still get Columbus.

Oddly enough, Columbus has one of only three wins against Toronto this year, though I don't see them as likely to repeat that if they end up matched in the playoffs. That was way back on April 15. Toronto also lost to New England of all teams. TFC's last loss was to Dallas on July 1. It was the first of a 3-game win streak for Dallas who has not won since.

 

[mgarbowski]

I am starting to think ATL is more likely to end up 3rd than 5th or 6th. I am trying to balance what I hope for and what I think to land on an outcome that is both positive and reasonably rational.

I figure that Atlanta will need to beat either Red Bulls in NJ or Toronto at home to claim 4th, and probably both to make 3rd, unless Chicago only wins 2 of its last 5. Chicago's easiest road game left is this week at Philly and the Fire need a road win to get 3 more wins..