2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

edit: don't feel like getting involved
Well, that was an odd edit.

Anyway, I'm trying to give it a go. Just see if there are some threads where you can make it through without the topic choking on pollution.

This one was a safe bet since it's fact-based analysis.
 
Anyway, I'm trying to give it a go without choking on pollution.
Your best bet is to get out and train when the air isn't smoggy, and if you have no other option then to do it when the ozone is high, just build up slowly so that you acclimate over time. You'll still probably not perform at your top capacity, but just look at it as any result is positive.
 
Here are some interesting facts on MLS point records in the age since the penalty shootout was retired (from 2000 onwards).
  • Most points is 67 by Los Angeles in 2011 (34 games)
  • Most points by a 2nd place team in the shield is 63 by Seattle in 2011 and Sporting KC in 2012
  • Only 10 teams have reached 60 points in a season
  • Most PPG is 2.04 by the Miami Fusion in 2001 (26 games), followed by San Jose with 2.00 in 2005 (32 games)
    • Those would translate into 69.4 points and 68.0 points, respectively, in a 34 game season
  • Of the 17 Supporters Shield winners over this time, only 7 had more than the 1.85 PPG we have this season.
Loved that Miami fusion team. Diego sierna was the best. And they had a young Pablo Mastroni and Nick Romando.
 
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Your best bet is to get out and train when the air isn't smoggy, and if you have no other option then to do it when the ozone is high, just build up slowly so that you acclimate over time. You'll still probably not perform at your top capacity, but just look at it as any result is positive.
This is good advice. But if the neighborhood air never clears up, you just have to move. You can't only run 1 day a week.
 
We're currently at 50 points with 6 matches remaining. Although FiveThirtyEight isn't the best in terms of accuracy in predictive numbers given their formula is terrible for soccer. Here is what the remaining games looks like...

We're favored in 3 matches (2 Home, 1 Away) and none of our matches has the opponents with more than 50% likely to win. I think we can get wins vs. Colorado, Houston, Montreal, and Columbus. I'll take ties vs. Chicago and New England.

That being said, it all depends on our available roster.
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We're currently at 50 points with 6 matches remaining. Although FiveThirtyEight isn't the best in terms of accuracy in predictive numbers given their formula is terrible for soccer. Here is what the remaining games looks like...

We're favored in 3 matches (2 Home, 1 Away) and none of our matches has the opponents with more than 50% likely to win. I think we can get wins vs. Colorado, Houston, Montreal, and Columbus. I'll take ties vs. Chicago and New England.

That being said, it all depends on our available roster.
View attachment 7465

Math is fun and can be somewhat predictive.

Its predictive power is rather less helpful when you consider the model is built off of a dataset that requires a mostly healthy team. I expect to loose or tie every single game we play that does not contain villa and at least two of the following, Maxi, Ring, Herrera.
 
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Math is fun and can be somewhat predictive.

Its predictive power is rather less helpful when you consider the model is built off of a dataset that requires a mostly healthy team. I expect to loose or tie every single game we play that does not contain villa and at least two of the following, Maxi, Ring, Herrera.

Yes. The lineups we've had for SKC and Portland do not qualify for the playoffs.
 
Atlanta is only eight points back with two games in hand and a charmin-soft schedule the rest of the way...basically not playing any playoff teams until the last two games of the season and they are basically at home the whole time.

Yes, I know their schedule is condensed but I could see them shooting up the table.
 
Atlanta is only eight points back with two games in hand and a charmin-soft schedule the rest of the way...basically not playing any playoff teams until the last two games of the season and they are basically at home the whole time.

Yes, I know their schedule is condensed but I could see them shooting up the table.
Listening to the ExtraTime podcast that came out recently, Matt Doyle felt that Atlanta could potentially challenge for the #2 seed, especially if "NYCFC continued to drop points"

But thought it was interesting that Doyle went on to say that they are a different team with Martinez in, but yet he also said they would need to rest him during this stretch as he has had so many injury issues this year.
 
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Listening to the ExtraTime podcast that came out recently, Matt Doyle felt that Atlanta could potentially challenge for the #2 seed, especially if "NYCFC continued to drop points"

But thought it was interesting that Doyle went on to say that they are a different team with Martinez in, but yet he also said they would need to rest him during this stretch as he has had so many injury issues this year.
Doyle hates NYCFC and only tosses crumbs when he has to.
 
FiveThirtyEight puts our chances at a knockout round bye at 53%. I will wait and see what the other sites have when they are updated. We obviously control our own destiny, but after tonight's performance late, and our injuries, we can't get by on these players.

In the past three games (2 H, 1A) we have 2 goals and conceded 2 that being said only 4 points. Not great.

5 games left.
 
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Frankly, right now, there is no numerical narrative.

We fucking suck at this point. Doesn't matter where we finish if we don't get back some of the guys who don't suck like a Hoover.
 
Frankly, right now, there is no numerical narrative.

We fucking suck at this point. Doesn't matter where we finish if we don't get back some of the guys who don't suck like a Hoover.
I'm really, really down on Finland, Luxembourg, Spain, and Venezuela right now. They've killed our team. And I'm quite concerned about that damn international break in the middle of the playoffs because I'm convinced we'll get some guys back healthy and then just lose them again.
Assuming we don't blow out of the playoffs before the break that is.
 
"Assuming we don't blow out of the playoffs before the break that is."

We should do a GIF contest based on this phrase.