2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[Ulrich]

Makes sense. Hard to figure out who has more than just a puncher's chance at beating Toronto. I figure Atlanta and NYC if healthy, though both would still be substantial underdogs, and that might be it. SKC maybe can go for a 0-0 draw in a cup final match-up (which is what they got way back in March) and hope to win a spot kick shootout.

Oddly enough, Columbus has one of only three wins against Toronto this year, though I don't see them as likely to repeat that if they end up matched in the playoffs. That was way back on April 15. Toronto also lost to New England of all teams. TFC's last loss was to Dallas on July 1. It was the first of a 3-game win streak for Dallas who has not won since.

NYCFC doesn't beat Atlanta or Toronto without Ring & Hererra, but the job will be a lot more doable if those two teams beat up on each other first. And if we're full strength, I like our matchup more against ATL than TOR, I just don't think PV has figured out a game plan to beat Toronto's clogging of the middle (short of Ring, Hererra, and Villa taking over a match with excelsior-type play).

 

[Midas Mulligan]

I figure that Atlanta will need to beat either Red Bulls in NJ or Toronto at home to claim 4th, and probably both to make 3rd, unless Chicago only wins 2 of its last 5. Chicago's easiest road game left is this week at Philly and the Fire need a road win to get 3 more wins..

I do think 4th is what is likely, and upon what I was basing my initial amalgam of hope and prediction.

 

[mgarbowski]

As we get close to the season end the nature of the weekly analysis changes, but I know some people like the charts, so here they are without commentary. These do not reflect the midweek results.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Offering a generalized apology for sorely mis-reading the situation and failing to account for the fact that ATL was actually going to be playing
1) Indoors, not in the heat
2) A bunch of teams that have nothing to play for.

(and if you think this is an attempted reverse-jinx, you are right. I am legit worried we drop to #3 at this point.)

 

[SoupInNYC]

Offering a generalized apology for sorely mis-reading the situation and failing to account for the fact that ATL was actually going to be playing
1) Indoors, not in the heat
2) A bunch of teams that have nothing to play for.

(and if you think this is an attempted reverse-jinx, you are right. I am legit worried we drop to #3 at this point.)

I think Montreal can get a result there this weekend. I know they also had a midweek game, but they haven't had a bunch of games stacked up like this.

And they still have something to play for. They are 3 points back from NJ (though NJ does have a game in hand) and 5 back from Columbus with a game in hand on the Crew.

Things don't look good for Montreal at the moment, but they aren't out of it yet. That loss to Minnesota at home was atrocious for them.

FWIW (probably not much), I'm predicting Montreal wins this one in Atlanta.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think Montreal can get a result there this weekend. I know they also had a midweek game, but they haven't had a bunch of games stacked up like this.

And they still have something to play for. They are 3 points back from NJ (though NJ does have a game in hand) and 5 back from Columbus with a game in hand on the Crew.

Things don't look good for Montreal at the moment, but they aren't out of it yet. That loss to Minnesota at home was atrocious for them.

FWIW (probably not much), I'm predicting Montreal wins this one in Atlanta.

I like bold.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I like bold.

I tend to go more bold I guess when it comes to teams that I don't root for. Sometimes I go bold and I look like a genius, other times I look like an idiot:

 

[LionNYC]

Atlanta controls their own destiny. Time to panic.

 

[ZYanksRule]

We should take a moment to celebrate clinching a playoff spot. Obviously we have bigger goals for this season, and bigger goals for the next four games, but it's not easy to get into the playoffs.

Four points out of the next two games should go a long way. Let's see what we got.

 

[LionNYC]

We should take a moment to celebrate clinching a playoff spot. Obviously we have bigger goals for this season, and bigger goals for the next four games, but it's not easy to get into the playoffs.

Four points out of the next two games should go a long way. Let's see what we got.

We need 12 points out of the last 4 games. Seriously. We need that bye. Otherwise, we're fucked in the playoffs.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

We need 12 points out of the last 4 games. Seriously. We need that bye. Otherwise, we're fucked in the playoffs.

We’re fucked no matter what without Herrera.

 

[mgarbowski]

If this collapse continues, and we don’t make the conference finals, and Atlanta does, and if we don’t replace Pirlo with a young stud like Atlanta has, I’m seriously going to reconsider my commitment to this team. And I think all that is sadly possible.

 

[Ulrich]

If this collapse continues, and don’t make the conference finals, and Atlanta does, and if we don’t replace Pirlo with a young stud like Atlanta has , I’m seriously going to reconsider my commitment to this team. And I think all that is sadly possible.

If the collapse continues and we bomb out of the playoffs, I'd be all for showing PV the door. He fcked the team last year leaving $750k in street clothes in order to play Mikey and others. This year he's killed any continuity by bringing the snooze brothers back for three games in a row on top of countless lost points surrendered via asinine subs. I still can't get over leaving Sands on the bench after holding him back from joining the U17's - if he's not going to start, let him start prepping.

 

[mgarbowski]

In the 14 games in which Pirlo has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.21 goals and gets 1.07 PPG.
In the 16 games where Pirlo does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 2.06 goals and gets 2.31 PPG.

In the 16 games in which McNamara has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.47 goals and gets 1.53 PPG.
In the 14 games where McNamara does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.87 goals and gets 1.93 PPG.

In the 25 games in which Ring has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.76 goals and gets 1.76 PPG.
In the 5 games where Ring does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.20 goals and gets 1.60 PPG.

In the 10 games in which Herrera has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 2.10 goals and gets 2.50 PPG.
In the 20 games where Herrera does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.45 goals and gets 1.35 PPG.

 

[Ulrich]

In the 14 games in which Pirlo has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.21 goals and gets 1.07 PPG.
In the 16 games where Pirlo does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 2.06 goals and gets 2.31 PPG.

In the 16 games in which McNamara has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.47 goals and gets 1.53 PPG.
In the 14 games where McNamara does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.87 goals and gets 1.93 PPG.

In the 25 games in which Ring has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.76 goals and gets 1.76 PPG.
In the 5 games where Ring does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.20 goals and gets 1.60 PPG.

In the 10 games in which Herrera has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 2.10 goals and gets 2.50 PPG.
In the 20 games where Herrera does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.45 goals and gets 1.35 PPG.

Would you please email it to Patricof and find out if Vieira needs it translated to French?

Honestly, if PV doesn't have a stats person feeding him how the team performs with certain players, he deserves to be fired for simple managerial malpractice. He sure as hell doesn't admit there are any issues with the obvious rotten apples when asked about them.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

In the 14 games in which Pirlo has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.21 goals and gets 1.07 PPG.
In the 16 games where Pirlo does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 2.06 goals and gets 2.31 PPG.

In the 16 games in which McNamara has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.47 goals and gets 1.53 PPG.
In the 14 games where McNamara does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.87 goals and gets 1.93 PPG.

In the 25 games in which Ring has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 1.76 goals and gets 1.76 PPG.
In the 5 games where Ring does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.20 goals and gets 1.60 PPG.

In the 10 games in which Herrera has played 50 or more minutes NYCFC scores 2.10 goals and gets 2.50 PPG.
In the 20 games where Herrera does not play 50 minutes NYCFC scores 1.45 goals and gets 1.35 PPG.

I know its a small sample size, but what about when both Ring and Herrera play 50 minutes.

 

[ZYanksRule]

We’re fucked no matter what without Herrera.

Agreed -- he's our engine. Especially considering the other options we have.

 

[mgarbowski]

I know its a small sample size, but what about when both Ring and Herrera play 50 minutes.

I'm not interested enough to do the math, but the only game where Ring missed and Herrera played 50+ minutes was the 2-1 win over New England on August 19, which was Herrera's last game. Since that was a win, when Ring and herrera both play is slightly worse than Herrera alone.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

I didn't calculate goals but we averaged 2.44 points per game in the 9 games that both Herrera and Ring played and 1.36 points per game.

 

[Seven]

Maybe I'm just naturally more optimistic, but I'm not at doom and gloom stage yet. Not to say that I am happy with the way we have been playing. And I sure as hell am not happy with the fact Vieira continues to play TMac and Pirlo together in the slowest midfield since Lamps and Pirlo were together.

Just kinda hard to even think about getting rid of PV when we just clinched a playoff spot and are still second in the league. Yes, Atlanta may overtake us, but that's not a guarantee. Their schedule does get a little more difficult in terms of opposing teams, and a reminder that one of their remaining games is during the international break and they will likely be missing key players.