2018 Roster Discussion

[Kjbert]

Lol, I love that this is a conversation about whether Villa should be renewed next season, but you guys got drawn into a conversation about Lampard vs. Villa, and maybe soon what the true definition of an attacking midfielder is. Countdown to stadium conjecture in 5, 4,

The attacking midfielders role is whatever the manager tells him it is.

For Maxi, it’s to create opportunities. For Lampard, it was to score.

 

[413Blue]

Does the CBA expire this year or next? It wouldn't surprise me if 480k does not exceed the standard cap next season, thus not requiring TAM

I knew I heard something recently, but couldn't find it. It looks like this report opens some opportunities to have major roster changes next season.

"Here’s another bit of news: multiple sources have confirmed to Yahoo Sports that MLS and its Players Union have quietly been discussing either ripping up the collective bargaining agreement that was signed in 2015 and expires in March of 2020 or, and I’ve been led to believe this is the likelier scenario, making significant changes to (and presumably extending) the current pact."

https://sports.yahoo.com/mcintyres-...discussions-phillys-season-east-playoff-chase

 

[Kjbert]

Goals are not the only instrument of production. Lampard had 12g/2a vs 15g/5a right now for villa.

Lampard has those in fewer games too.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

Lampard has those in fewer games too.

Yeah when you play fewer games you don't produce as much for your team.

 

[LionNYC]

Andre's Orange Country SC defeated St. Louis FC 4-0 and will face Reno 1868 FC on 10/27.

Saad's Phoenix Rising FC defeated Timbers 2 3-0 and will face Swope Park Rangers on 10/26.

Should both teams wins, they'd face off in the Western Conference Finals.

Andre's Orange County SC defeated Reno 1868 FC 1-0.

Saad's Phoenix Rising FC defaced Swope Park Rangers 4-2.

Andre vs Saad. Orange County SC vs. Phoenix Rising FC. Saturday, November 3rd 10 PM.

 

[SoupInNYC]

One side wants to keep re-signing Villa until it is proven he has nothing left. The upside is you never leave a good year of Villa on the table. This guarantees you get every possible good season out of him. The downside is it guarantees -- at some point -- a year of utter crap from one of your DPs because that is the only way this faction will acknowledge Villa is done.

The other side is willing to risk losing out on what might be additional good years from Villa in order to avoid have a guaranteed crap year from a DP at some point. The downside is Villa's replacement might not be as good, and a good year from Villa is probably valued more than an equally good year from any other player. The upside is the likelihood of a crap year from a younger DP is significantly lower.

The last year of Pirlo sucked. I'm not willing to guarantee another one. I thought this year was a risk that Villa deserved we take. It came up moderately good, all things considered. But it extended the team's perfect streak of having at least one DP miss 10+ games every damn season. Can we try to have one season where that doesn't happen? I'm surprised how many people are willing to accept that year after year after year and not even try to avoid it. Because Villa ain't playing 25 or more games next year so if we re-sign him that's essentially guaranteed it will have happened 5 years out of five, and it also might be much, much, worse.

I think you’re spot on with this, but I still want him for one more year and think he has it in him. And I’m holding onto hope that it can come in a TAM deal.

A lot of this may just my general positive outlook on it, and thinking we can still get this year’s level of production out of him. And part of it just may be that I’m not quite ready to say goodbye.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think you’re spot on with this, but I still want him for one more year and think he has it in him. And I’m holding onto hope that it can come in a TAM deal.

A lot of this may just my general positive outlook on it, and thinking we can still get this year’s level of production out of him. And part of it just may be that I’m not quite ready to say goodbye.

I get that. The split I posited basically treats all the "keep Villa" supporters as unreliable in their assessments. Not dishonest, but unreliable. Because after watching this play out again and again over decades in multiple sports and dozens and even hundreds of players, that is how it works. Probably 80% or more of the people who want to hold on towards the end, the ones who say that a 10-20% decrease in production after age 32 is a blip, or that missing a third of the season is bad luck, and still want to take the chance of getting one more good, even glorious season (including the players themselves), never flip to the other side until that disastrous, pathetic season happens.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

In 2016, a 38 year old Frank Lampard scored 12 goals in 19 games. He played 1,280 minutes and scored 1 goal per 107 minutes.

In 2018, a 36 year old David Villa scored 14 goals in 23 games. He played 1,754 minutes and scored 1 goal per 125 minutes.

Villa is the rock of this franchise. But he was less productive than Lampard in his final year.

distilling things down to goals or even goals+assists completely devalues Villa. If Lampard ever made a tackle, it was because someone ran into his static ass.

It’s no coincidence we press better when Villa is on the field. He’s smart and puts in a shift. Lampard just hung out and stuck one in from time to time.

I feel like this is all a little unprompted. Were you just feeling like starting up a debate?

If Villa wants to play with a non-DP k or if the alternative for us is another Medina type DP, then re-signing Villa is a no-brainer for me.

A half season of games from Villa is worth more above replacement than a full season of 2018 Medina.

That said, if the option is Villa or spending similar to Villa’s current wages to sign a younger player, then thanks for everything, El Guaje. Because I’d be all over that option. But you are telling us that won’t happen.

 

[Ulrich]

I get that. The split I posited basically treats all the "keep Villa" supporters as unreliable in their assessments. Not dishonest, but unreliable. Because after watching this play out again and again over decades in multiple sports and dozens and even hundreds of players, that is how it works. Probably 80% or more of the people who want to hold on towards the end, the ones who say that a 10-20% decrease in production after age 32 is a blip, or that missing a third of the season is bad luck, and still want to take the chance of getting one more good, even glorious season (including the players themselves), never flip to the other side until that disastrous, pathetic season happens.

I don’t want to diminish Villa’s heart and dedication at all (because he is the soul of the club), but there’s a very real chance the reason we saw such a superlative effort last match is because Villa knows it could have been his last and he was going to give everything he had to prolong his journey. That’s not to say he wouldn’t continue to be valiant each game if he came back for 2019, but it’s harder to play at peak performance day in and day out at that age than it is for an apex match at the end of the season and possibly career. That last DC match he played in he looked frustrated as hell, and while he was trying and putting out effort, his demeanor (he wasn’t pouting, just looked flustered) said it all.

Just my gut, but I think he’s approaching each match as his last and will empty the tank and then some - it could be his will & way of carrying the team on his back, like Rooney did with DC, because it could be over in 90/180 and he’s looking to extend it for as long as he can. I think we’re gonna see the Villa of old at least two more times, and then hopefully two more after that (fingers crossed, a third time after), but if it’s only twice more, that’s the memory of him I want to keep.

 

[Seven]

I’ve made it well known I want Villa back next year. But honestly, the thing I want the most is to send him off into the sunset at the end of this season with the MLS Cup held high

 

[Kjbert]

Yeah when you play fewer games you don't produce as much for your team.

Exactly. So why would you pay a guy $6 Million for 20 appearances then?

 

[Kjbert]

distilling things down to goals or even goals+assists completely devalues Villa. If Lampard ever made a tackle, it was because someone ran into his static ass.

It’s no coincidence we press better when Villa is on the field. He’s smart and puts in a shift. Lampard just hung out and stuck one in from time to time.

I feel like this is all a little unprompted. Were you just feeling like starting up a debate?

If Villa wants to play with a non-DP k or if the alternative for us is another Medina type DP, then re-signing Villa is a no-brainer for me.

A half season of games from Villa is worth more above replacement than a full season of 2018 Medina.

That said, if the option is Villa or spending similar to Villa’s current wages to sign a younger player, then thanks for everything, El Guaje. Because I’d be all over that option. But you are telling us that won’t happen.

Your last paragraph is where I am at.

This isn’t a Villa or nobody debate. If CFG gives a shit, it should be a Villa vs Walcott or Villa vs Giroud type of debate.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I’ve made it well known I want Villa back next year. But honestly, the thing I want the most is to send him off into the sunset at the end of this season with the MLS Cup held high

I’d feel a shit ton better about Villa not being back next year if we were to raise the Cup this year

 

[ZYanksRule]

I don’t want to diminish Villa’s heart and dedication at all (because he is the soul of the club), but there’s a very real chance the reason we saw such a superlative effort last match is because Villa knows it could have been his last and he was going to give everything he had to prolong his journey. That’s not to say he wouldn’t continue to be valiant each game if he came back for 2019, but it’s harder to play at peak performance day in and day out at that age than it is for an apex match at the end of the season and possibly career. That last DC match he played in he looked frustrated as hell, and while he was trying and putting out effort, his demeanor (he wasn’t pouting, just looked flustered) said it all.

Just my gut, but I think he’s approaching each match as his last and will empty the tank and then some - it could be his will & way of carrying the team on his back, like Rooney did with DC, because it could be over in 90/180 and he’s looking to extend it for as long as he can. I think we’re gonna see the Villa of old at least two more times, and then hopefully two more after that (fingers crossed, a third time after), but if it’s only twice more, that’s the memory of him I want to keep.

I'll be honest, I think Villa returns unless he retires. I struggle to see a scenario in which David Villa signs elsewhere. He wants to be here until he retires, and no matter what we think I struggle to see a scenario in which the club doesn't ask him to come back if he wants to.

So if Villa is contemplating retirement, then that's one thing. But if he wants to return, I think they oblige.

 

[Ulrich]

I'll be honest, I think Villa returns unless he retires. I struggle to see a scenario in which David Villa signs elsewhere. He wants to be here until he retires, and no matter what we think I struggle to see a scenario in which the club doesn't ask him to come back if he wants to.

So if Villa is contemplating retirement, then that's one thing. But if he wants to return, I think they oblige.

I think you’re right, but NYCFC would be fools to bring him back on a DP contract - that’s rolling the dice with one of the few mechanisms MLS gives a team to circumvent parity. At most, Villa is a TAM level player ( K Kjbert gave the reasoning) with his age/injuries/slowing down (he has definitely lost a step or two this year). He can definitely still contribute in game changing ways, but he should not be one of the coveted three even if that’s the only way to get the deal done.

 

[Kangaroo Jack]

I think you’re right, but NYCFC would be fools to bring him back on a DP contract - that’s rolling the dice with one of the few mechanisms MLS gives a team to circumvent parity. At most, Villa is a TAM level player ( K Kjbert gave the reasoning) with his age/injuries/slowing down (he has definitely lost a step or two this year). He can definitely still contribute in game changing ways, but he should not be one of the coveted three even if that’s the only way to get the deal done.

As for villa slowing down I don’t agree. Being scared of injury and him not being able to play is fair but he definitely has not slowed down. This is his second best season in MLS as far as goals per minute are concerned:

2015 139.77

2016 133.34

2017 114.16

2018 122.53

 

[Ulrich]

As for villa slowing down I don’t agree. Being scared of injury and him not being able to play is fair but he definitely has not slowed down. This is his second best season in MLS as far as goals per minute are concerned:

2015 139.77

2016 133.34

2017 114.16

2018 122.53

I wasn’t talking about his scoring rate, rather his actual speed, and yes he has 100% slowed down. Every previous year he’s been able to outrun the defense on breakaways and this year he’s been caught in situations that he previously wouldn’t have.

If it’s one thing I know, it’s how speed diminishes with age, and Villa isn’t immune.

 

[Kangaroo Jack]

I wasn’t talking about his scoring rate, rather his actual speed, and yes he has 100% slowed down. Every previous year he’s been able to outrun the defense on breakaways and this year he’s been caught in situations that he previously wouldn’t have.

If it’s one thing I know, it’s how speed diminishes with age, and Villa isn’t immune.

Your eye test doesn’t agree with mine even here. But there’s nothing to back either of us up so I’ll agree to disagree

 

[Ulrich]

Your eye test doesn’t agree with mine even here. But there’s nothing to back either of us up so I’ll agree to disagree

Except that he’s been caught on breakaways, when he rarely if ever did before, so there’s that, but you’re actively choosing to ignore it.

 

[Kangaroo Jack]

Except that he’s been caught on breakaways, when he rarely if ever did before, so there’s that, but you’re actively choosing to ignore it.

You’re saying he’s never gotten caught before? He’s also scored on breakaways but I can say you’re choosing to ignore that too