2019 Roster Discussion
- Thread starter NYCFC_Dan
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Question of the day.
Who do we lose in the January transfer/loan window?
I say Berget (break even) and Medina (profit)
Who do we lose in the January transfer/loan window?
I say Berget (break even) and Medina (profit)
I'd sign up for that.
No, was going to give an analogy on how Lewis was being handled to a current player in the Islanders system. In case you're still interested, the players name is Josh Ho-Sang. Lots of articles out there on the talent level vs attitude and he is pretty much the hockey parallel of Lewis. So that's why I asked, was to try to further a discussion we were having. Not to try to call you out on anything.
"Kinda a dick to be new." Would love to know how I've been a dick. If anything, I think I've been pretty respectful of most people on here. Came here looking for meaningful conversations about the club, MLS and soccer in general, not to bicker with some old man who doesn't like it when people prove him wrong.
In regards to "sources", yeah, I have contacts and friends in many areas from my previous line of work. I have friends that work in NYS, NYC, and other various government sectors. I am friends with a few people within MLS based off of others facets of life. So when I get some news, I like to share it along. I don't claim to know everything or be an "Insider", but i'll be sure going forward anytime I post anything, it says "NOT FOR MIDAS MULLIGAN" so you don't need to bother reading.
Bro you’re killing me with that avatar. You’re not trolling him, you’re trolling the rest of us who can’t figure out who the fuck is talking.
You must be new, because the old timers on here have learned not to waste our time with
Midas Mulligan or any of his socks!
Just a thought: Chanot's social media has been pretty silent. No goodbye post or anything like that. Makes me wonder if we declined his option to free up an expansion draft protection slot and we will resign him to new contract after the draft.
Just making sure the K Kjbert position is protected as well as he protects his sources.
Hey man, leave me out of your slap fight.
Who Scores the Goals?
In 2017 NYCFC had terrible production from Spots 3, 4 and 5 in its team goal scoring ranking. Spot Number Two didn't shine either. Every one of those spots improved in 2018. This was the best the team ever got from scorers ## 3 and 4 and #5 tied for its best. The "Rest of Team" category also had an all-time best year for NYCFC. All of this is why the team scored more goals than 2017 despite an 8-goal drop in production by Scorer #1. On the other hand, that drop is why the team did not set a club record for goals scored despite improvement team-wide except for the top guy.
I think it is fair to conclude that Reyna et al set out to improve the team's scoring capability beyond Villa and succeeded, but I don't think the plan was for Shradi (total salary $350k) to outscore Berget ($817k) and Medina ($771k) combined. I'm also concerned that Shradi completely outperformed his Expected Goals by a huge amount and his Goals per Shots Taken was a similar off the chart outlier. He could outperform all metrics at a similar level next year, but that seems very unlikely. I won't be shocked if he matches even exceeds his total numbers next year, but if so, it will probably be because he plays a lot more minutes (just 1547 in 2018, fewer than Villa even). I can't see his pace keeping up.
Also, Maxi had a career year.
Both his goals and assists were twice his prior career average. Maybe that is who he is now, but again, I do not think we can count on it.
Which means, I think, the club has to get another stud to be the team's best scorer (and/or Medina and Berget need to be upgraded or just be better) to compensate for what I expect to be decreased production in 2019 from ITS and Maxi.
Thing is, MLS teams don't necessarily need to have a healthy Villa-level scorer to succeed. Here are all the playoff teams:
Some of these are misleading: DC and Seattle's top scorers arrived midseason and led second half surges. But SKC, LAFC and Dallas won more points this year than NYCFC without a better full-time scorer than an injury-limited Villa, and Portland just made it to MLS Cup without exceeding NYCFC at any of Spots 1 through 5.
Also, not our problem, but if I were in charge of SKC I would be concerned that the team might be unlikely to again get 24 goals from the Rest of Team category. I don't know this to be true but I expect it is something that doesn't normally repeat year to year.
Obviously, this ignores defense, and assists, and thousands of other little things, but I do think these goal comparisons are useful.
In 2017 NYCFC had terrible production from Spots 3, 4 and 5 in its team goal scoring ranking. Spot Number Two didn't shine either. Every one of those spots improved in 2018. This was the best the team ever got from scorers ## 3 and 4 and #5 tied for its best. The "Rest of Team" category also had an all-time best year for NYCFC. All of this is why the team scored more goals than 2017 despite an 8-goal drop in production by Scorer #1. On the other hand, that drop is why the team did not set a club record for goals scored despite improvement team-wide except for the top guy.
I think it is fair to conclude that Reyna et al set out to improve the team's scoring capability beyond Villa and succeeded, but I don't think the plan was for Shradi (total salary $350k) to outscore Berget ($817k) and Medina ($771k) combined. I'm also concerned that Shradi completely outperformed his Expected Goals by a huge amount and his Goals per Shots Taken was a similar off the chart outlier. He could outperform all metrics at a similar level next year, but that seems very unlikely. I won't be shocked if he matches even exceeds his total numbers next year, but if so, it will probably be because he plays a lot more minutes (just 1547 in 2018, fewer than Villa even). I can't see his pace keeping up.
Also, Maxi had a career year.
Both his goals and assists were twice his prior career average. Maybe that is who he is now, but again, I do not think we can count on it.
Which means, I think, the club has to get another stud to be the team's best scorer (and/or Medina and Berget need to be upgraded or just be better) to compensate for what I expect to be decreased production in 2019 from ITS and Maxi.
Thing is, MLS teams don't necessarily need to have a healthy Villa-level scorer to succeed. Here are all the playoff teams:
Some of these are misleading: DC and Seattle's top scorers arrived midseason and led second half surges. But SKC, LAFC and Dallas won more points this year than NYCFC without a better full-time scorer than an injury-limited Villa, and Portland just made it to MLS Cup without exceeding NYCFC at any of Spots 1 through 5.
Also, not our problem, but if I were in charge of SKC I would be concerned that the team might be unlikely to again get 24 goals from the Rest of Team category. I don't know this to be true but I expect it is something that doesn't normally repeat year to year.
Obviously, this ignores defense, and assists, and thousands of other little things, but I do think these goal comparisons are useful.
Awesome stuff, thanks for putting this together Garbo.
I think that Maxi needs some help (as I mentioned in a different post/thread- a Valeri to his Blanco) in setting up and getting goals. ITS was our standout winger due to his ability to put the ball in the net, and I think he puts up similar numbers next year, but in more time (essentially a "slump," as MPG will increase). I feel our wingers have a fuck ton of potential, but relying on just potential doesn't work out. Medina, Taty, and Lewis all have shown flashes of brilliance, but nothing that makes me think they can be an impact winger. In my opinion, we need an impact winger or #10 to come in and give defenses headaches wondering whether they should pressure Maxi or Guy#2. Look at our playoff series vs. ATL, they shut down Maxi by tackling him and his soul, knowing that 90% of all NYCFC attacks came through him.
Villa leaving will be big as well, as evidenced by the numbers. But, I feel like we don't need a huge name to take over as a striker, just one that isn't in the lumbering mold re: Nemec, Okoli, Berget. I would rather have a DP winger/#10 than a striker, as long as we get a serviceable striker. Although, aside from Villa, we've never had a #2 striker who has been good. Fuck.
Also, I liked SKC a lot and feel they were only missing a striker (relying on Khiry... lol). Their front 3/4 of Salloi, Russell, Espinoza, Fernandes are all awesome players in MLS. Russell in particular I would love to have on NYCFC. Having great wingers won't get you anywhere with no one to finish the deal. Nemeth/Shelton/Rubio all weren't good enough for them, and it ended up hurting SKC. With a decent striker, SKC probably runs the table in the west.
To criticize Maxi, whom I love, he needs to get better in front of goal. I can count on two of my hands how many 1v1s and rebounds he's missed, so that count of 9 goals could have easily been up to 12-13
Agreed. I was surprised when I saw his final numbers since it did seem he had a 1v1 almost every game that he ended up missing. I want the 2nd player to be the one he passes to and finishes that chance
precisely. we shouldnt be relying on him to be a secondary source of goals, rather a primary assist guyAgreed. I was surprised when I saw his final numbers since it did seem he had a 1v1 almost every game that he ended up missing. I want the 2nd player to be the one he passes to and finishes that chance
Good stuff.
One question is how much we can expect from the current #s 2, 4, 5 and below with the additional playing time that may be available with Villa gone. He started 20 games and played 1,754 minutes. That's time that would be available to others if we don't bring in a DP forward.
A few thoughts.
One question is how much we can expect from the current #s 2, 4, 5 and below with the additional playing time that may be available with Villa gone. He started 20 games and played 1,754 minutes. That's time that would be available to others if we don't bring in a DP forward.
A few thoughts.
- Starter's Minutes - If you average Villa's years before this one and Maxi's two years, you get 30/34 starts and 2,656/3,060 minutes (or 86.8%). I think that's a good proxy for what a regular starter who is performing well would get.
- Shradi - He scored the 2nd most goals, but started and played only about half the games and minutes (18 starts; 1,547 minutes). Yes, his early scoring rate was absurd, but presumably he gets more minutes next year, so 10+ goals doesn't seem that presumptuous.
- Medina - He started 21 games and played 2,005 minutes. He should get a little more time next year and hopefully gain a sophomore jump while he is at it. For all the complaining, 6 goals and 7 assists is not a bad first season.
- Berget - His utilization was close to Shradi's (19 and 1,569). His production was well below (4g/3a). A bump up by 40% or so doesn't get to the numbers we would expect from a starting striker.
- Castellanos and Lewis - Both played few minutes (446 and 219) and scored only one goal (Lewis also had 3 assists).
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