2019 Roster Discussion

[Korker]

Who Scores the Goals?
View attachment 9355
In 2017 NYCFC had terrible production from Spots 3, 4 and 5 in its team goal scoring ranking. Spot Number Two didn't shine either. Every one of those spots improved in 2018. This was the best the team ever got from scorers ## 3 and 4 and #5 tied for its best. The "Rest of Team" category also had an all-time best year for NYCFC. All of this is why the team scored more goals than 2017 despite an 8-goal drop in production by Scorer #1. On the other hand, that drop is why the team did not set a club record for goals scored despite improvement team-wide except for the top guy.

I think it is fair to conclude that Reyna et al set out to improve the team's scoring capability beyond Villa and succeeded, but I don't think the plan was for Shradi (total salary $350k) to outscore Berget ($817k) and Medina ($771k) combined. I'm also concerned that Shradi completely outperformed his Expected Goals by a huge amount and his Goals per Shots Taken was a similar off the chart outlier. He could outperform all metrics at a similar level next year, but that seems very unlikely. I won't be shocked if he matches even exceeds his total numbers next year, but if so, it will probably be because he plays a lot more minutes (just 1547 in 2018, fewer than Villa even). I can't see his pace keeping up.

Also, Maxi had a career year.
View attachment 9356
Both his goals and assists were twice his prior career average. Maybe that is who he is now, but again, I do not think we can count on it.
Which means, I think, the club has to get another stud to be the team's best scorer (and/or Medina and Berget need to be upgraded or just be better) to compensate for what I expect to be decreased production in 2019 from ITS and Maxi.

Thing is, MLS teams don't necessarily need to have a healthy Villa-level scorer to succeed. Here are all the playoff teams:

View attachment 9357

Some of these are misleading: DC and Seattle's top scorers arrived midseason and led second half surges. But SKC, LAFC and Dallas won more points this year than NYCFC without a better full-time scorer than an injury-limited Villa, and Portland just made it to MLS Cup without exceeding NYCFC at any of Spots 1 through 5.

Also, not our problem, but if I were in charge of SKC I would be concerned that the team might be unlikely to again get 24 goals from the Rest of Team category. I don't know this to be true but I expect it is something that doesn't normally repeat year to year.

Obviously, this ignores defense, and assists, and thousands of other little things, but I do think these goal comparisons are useful.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Who Scores the Goals?
View attachment 9355
In 2017 NYCFC had terrible production from Spots 3, 4 and 5 in its team goal scoring ranking. Spot Number Two didn't shine either. Every one of those spots improved in 2018. This was the best the team ever got from scorers ## 3 and 4 and #5 tied for its best. The "Rest of Team" category also had an all-time best year for NYCFC. All of this is why the team scored more goals than 2017 despite an 8-goal drop in production by Scorer #1. On the other hand, that drop is why the team did not set a club record for goals scored despite improvement team-wide except for the top guy.

I think it is fair to conclude that Reyna et al set out to improve the team's scoring capability beyond Villa and succeeded, but I don't think the plan was for Shradi (total salary $350k) to outscore Berget ($817k) and Medina ($771k) combined. I'm also concerned that Shradi completely outperformed his Expected Goals by a huge amount and his Goals per Shots Taken was a similar off the chart outlier. He could outperform all metrics at a similar level next year, but that seems very unlikely. I won't be shocked if he matches even exceeds his total numbers next year, but if so, it will probably be because he plays a lot more minutes (just 1547 in 2018, fewer than Villa even). I can't see his pace keeping up.

Also, Maxi had a career year.
View attachment 9356
Both his goals and assists were twice his prior career average. Maybe that is who he is now, but again, I do not think we can count on it.
Which means, I think, the club has to get another stud to be the team's best scorer (and/or Medina and Berget need to be upgraded or just be better) to compensate for what I expect to be decreased production in 2019 from ITS and Maxi.

Thing is, MLS teams don't necessarily need to have a healthy Villa-level scorer to succeed. Here are all the playoff teams:

View attachment 9357

Some of these are misleading: DC and Seattle's top scorers arrived midseason and led second half surges. But SKC, LAFC and Dallas won more points this year than NYCFC without a better full-time scorer than an injury-limited Villa, and Portland just made it to MLS Cup without exceeding NYCFC at any of Spots 1 through 5.

Also, not our problem, but if I were in charge of SKC I would be concerned that the team might be unlikely to again get 24 goals from the Rest of Team category. I don't know this to be true but I expect it is something that doesn't normally repeat year to year.

Obviously, this ignores defense, and assists, and thousands of other little things, but I do think these goal comparisons are useful.

Great post. A couple of thoughts on this.

You pointed out ITS and him outperforming his xG and this is a very valid point and I think this is the reason why some members have floated the possibility of selling him and I could see that argument. I definitely want him to stick around for another year, because he is a guy that has shown the ability to finish, something that we struggled at times with last year. But perhaps he does have some sort of regression to the mean in terms of goals scored vs xG and it hurts his value. I could see an argument for selling him and not be too upset with it, but I'm not advocating for it. (and being on board with selling him would come along with the assumption that we are able to bring in another capable scorer - which is way much easier said than done)

Maxi did have a career year and it is somewhat surprising that he still seems to catch flack on here. I know no player is above any criticism, especially when talking about individual plays, and Maxi has deserved some there, but there still seems to be chatter about him as a DP and I don't think that talk has any basis at all. However, I really think he needs another quality striker up top in order to have another year similar to this last one. Villa's movement really allowed Maxi to create and they had a great rapport. I don't think he has a similar year production-wise if we have a combo of Berget/Medina taking over for Villa.

 

[dkalev2]

If Castellanos ever fakes getting headbutted again he's dead to me. Right now he's merely on my shitlist.

I’m sure he’s devastated. Being on your shitlist keeps him up at night for sure

 

[Keith Putnam]

I’m sure he’s devastated. Being on your shitlist keeps him up at night for sure

...u mad, bro?

 

[dkalev2]

That discussed in the Pirlo conference room this morning over coffee/donuts?

Yep. It was on the agenda just before whether Villa should be resigned and after why you’re always an asshat

 

[dkalev2]

...u mad, bro?

I mean as president of the Castellanos fan club, yes

 

[dummyrun]

However, I really think he needs another quality striker up top in order to have another year similar to this last one. Villa's movement really allowed Maxi to create and they had a great rapport. I don't think he has a similar year production-wise if we have a combo of Berget/Medina taking over for Villa.

I'd like to see Berget sold but movement isn't his weakness. And I don't know whether this actually tells us anything meaningful, but it's interesting to compare Maxi's production when Villa was out in July (orange) to when he returned (blue).

 

[dkalev2]

I'd like to see Berget sold but movement isn't his weakness. And I don't know whether this actually tells us anything meaningful, but it's interesting to compare Maxi's production when Villa was out in July (orange) to when he returned (blue).

Berget is dreadful, nemec was better.
Out of curiosity how many of those games were under Dome/Vieira? I don’t remember when Vieira left but that could have an effect on his numbers/ wins/losses also

 

[dkalev2]

Besides is the plan for Tati to make him the central striker, on the wing, or drift him in as a secondary striker behind someone else?

 

[dummyrun]

Berget is dreadful, nemec was better.
Out of curiosity how many of those games were under Dome/Vieira? I don’t remember when Vieira left but that could have an effect on his numbers/ wins/losses also

This was all under Dome. Vieira's last game was June 9 against Atlanta, Torrent's first was June 24 against Toronto.

 

[Ulrich]

Yep. It was on the agenda just before whether Villa should be resigned and after why you’re always an asshat

Said the man trolling busy trolling and slinging....

 

[gbservis]

Great post. A couple of thoughts on this.

You pointed out ITS and him outperforming his xG and this is a very valid point and I think this is the reason why some members have floated the possibility of selling him and I could see that argument. I definitely want him to stick around for another year, because he is a guy that has shown the ability to finish, something that we struggled at times with last year. But perhaps he does have some sort of regression to the mean in terms of goals scored vs xG and it hurts his value. I could see an argument for selling him and not be too upset with it, but I'm not advocating for it. (and being on board with selling him would come along with the assumption that we are able to bring in another capable scorer - which is way much easier said than done)

Maxi did have a career year and it is somewhat surprising that he still seems to catch flack on here. I know no player is above any criticism, especially when talking about individual plays, and Maxi has deserved some there, but there still seems to be chatter about him as a DP and I don't think that talk has any basis at all. However, I really think he needs another quality striker up top in order to have another year similar to this last one. Villa's movement really allowed Maxi to create and they had a great rapport. I don't think he has a similar year production-wise if we have a combo of Berget/Medina taking over for Villa.

With Villa gone ITS is the only regular starter on the roster with the skills to go at defenders with the ball at his feet and make things happen. The only other play that's capable of this currently on the roster is Lewis. I don't mind them selling high on ITS but if they do they need to replace him with someone of a similar skill set or be firmly committed to giving Lewis solid min this season. Pretty passing is nice but every team needs a guy that can put defenders on their heels from time to time.

 

[mgarbowski]

Good stuff.

One question is how much we can expect from the current #s 2, 4, 5 and below with the additional playing time that may be available with Villa gone. He started 20 games and played 1,754 minutes. That's time that would be available to others if we don't bring in a DP forward.

A few thoughts.

• Starter's Minutes - If you average Villa's years before this one and Maxi's two years, you get 30/34 starts and 2,656/3,060 minutes (or 86.8%). I think that's a good proxy for what a regular starter who is performing well would get.
• Shradi - He scored the 2nd most goals, but started and played only about half the games and minutes (18 starts; 1,547 minutes). Yes, his early scoring rate was absurd, but presumably he gets more minutes next year, so 10+ goals doesn't seem that presumptuous.
• Medina - He started 21 games and played 2,005 minutes. He should get a little more time next year and hopefully gain a sophomore jump while he is at it. For all the complaining, 6 goals and 7 assists is not a bad first season.
• Berget - His utilization was close to Shradi's (19 and 1,569). His production was well below (4g/3a). A bump up by 40% or so doesn't get to the numbers we would expect from a starting striker.
• Castellanos and Lewis - Both played few minutes (446 and 219) and scored only one goal (Lewis also had 3 assists).

Nice deeper dive into something I just hinted at with respect to Shradi - the obvious effect of minutes on production. And it's interesting how many of the team's top scorers had limited minutes. And it concerned me that if we get 18-20+ goals from a full season Villa replacement, plus basically the same numbers from Shradi but with much more playing full time, plus Medina full time, this could have a depressing effect on the production from players 4 through XX.

So I took Villa, Shradi, and Medina -- the top 3 scorers for 2018 -- and assume they or their replacements get 2,700 minutes each. I used Tinnerholm as my model at 31 games and 2697 minutes. That would give those 3 players 2,794 more minutes combined than they played in 2018, which is roughly a 1-players worth of a full season taken away from the rest of the team, or about 9% of the remaining team minutes (I excluded keepers). The good news is a 9.13% proportional reduction in the goal production for players 4 through the end of the roster is only about 3 goals. I feared it would be more.

 

[mgarbowski]

people have brought up Lewis and Castellanos, and I should have mentioned them, as it is clearly possible that one or both become productive scorers next year to supplement what we otherwise expect.

 

[NickA]

Who Scores the Goals?
View attachment 9355
In 2017 NYCFC had terrible production from Spots 3, 4 and 5 in its team goal scoring ranking. Spot Number Two didn't shine either. Every one of those spots improved in 2018. This was the best the team ever got from scorers ## 3 and 4 and #5 tied for its best. The "Rest of Team" category also had an all-time best year for NYCFC. All of this is why the team scored more goals than 2017 despite an 8-goal drop in production by Scorer #1. On the other hand, that drop is why the team did not set a club record for goals scored despite improvement team-wide except for the top guy.

I think it is fair to conclude that Reyna et al set out to improve the team's scoring capability beyond Villa and succeeded, but I don't think the plan was for Shradi (total salary $350k) to outscore Berget ($817k) and Medina ($771k) combined. I'm also concerned that Shradi completely outperformed his Expected Goals by a huge amount and his Goals per Shots Taken was a similar off the chart outlier. He could outperform all metrics at a similar level next year, but that seems very unlikely. I won't be shocked if he matches even exceeds his total numbers next year, but if so, it will probably be because he plays a lot more minutes (just 1547 in 2018, fewer than Villa even). I can't see his pace keeping up.

Also, Maxi had a career year.
View attachment 9356
Both his goals and assists were twice his prior career average. Maybe that is who he is now, but again, I do not think we can count on it.
Which means, I think, the club has to get another stud to be the team's best scorer (and/or Medina and Berget need to be upgraded or just be better) to compensate for what I expect to be decreased production in 2019 from ITS and Maxi.

Thing is, MLS teams don't necessarily need to have a healthy Villa-level scorer to succeed. Here are all the playoff teams:

View attachment 9357

Some of these are misleading: DC and Seattle's top scorers arrived midseason and led second half surges. But SKC, LAFC and Dallas won more points this year than NYCFC without a better full-time scorer than an injury-limited Villa, and Portland just made it to MLS Cup without exceeding NYCFC at any of Spots 1 through 5.

Also, not our problem, but if I were in charge of SKC I would be concerned that the team might be unlikely to again get 24 goals from the Rest of Team category. I don't know this to be true but I expect it is something that doesn't normally repeat year to year.

Obviously, this ignores defense, and assists, and thousands of other little things, but I do think these goal comparisons are useful.

Id be curious to see Maxi stats with Villa and without Villa. He always played better to my eye without Villa.

 

[mgarbowski]

Id be curious to see Maxi stats with Villa and without Villa. He always played better to my eye without Villa.

Keep reading the thread dummyrun did a post.

 

[Christopher Jee]

I'd like to see Berget sold but movement isn't his weakness. And I don't know whether this actually tells us anything meaningful, but it's interesting to compare Maxi's production when Villa was out in July (orange) to when he returned (blue).

This overlaps pretty well with the "4-3-3 continuation" era vs. "diamond experimentation era" too doesn't it?

Putting aside the eyetest, this opens up a couple of hypotheticals - that the slump was due to Villa's return (and shaking off effects of being injured) or that the diamond was an attempt to accommodate Villa. Probably others.

 

[dummyrun]

This overlaps pretty well with the "4-3-3 continuation" era vs. "diamond experimentation era" too doesn't it?

Putting aside the eyetest, this opens up a couple of hypotheticals - that the slump was due to Villa's return (and shaking off effects of being injured) or that the diamond was an attempt to accommodate Villa. Probably others.

Off the top of my head, orange was all variations on the 4-2-3-1, with Maxi mostly playing as a very high 10 or a left winger. The first half of blue mixed in some 4-3-3 experimentation, then the diamond kicked in over the international break against New England.

 

[Christopher Jee]

Off the top of my head, orange was all variations on the 4-2-3-1, with Maxi mostly playing as a very high 10 or a left winger. The first half of blue mixed in some 4-3-3 experimentation, then the diamond kicked in over the international break against New England.

Maybe we are too deep in the weeds now, but I'm 80% certain we rolled out a diamond in at least the first half against Philly away.

You're reminding me of something I've been thinking about recently, though, which is the possibility that we will use Maxi as a false 9. As you mentioned, he got a bit of time in this role when Villa was out. The intelligence of his movement overcomes whatever physical disadvantages he has. I'd rate him equal to or better than Berget in the air, honestly. Maxi as false 9 wouldn't really help us fill the two 10 spots we think we'd like to fill, but does give us some optionality.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Nice deeper dive into something I just hinted at with respect to Shradi - the obvious effect of minutes on production. And it's interesting how many of the team's top scorers had limited minutes. And it concerned me that if we get 18-20+ goals from a full season Villa replacement, plus basically the same numbers from Shradi but with much more playing full time, plus Medina full time, this could have a depressing effect on the production from players 4 through XX.

So I took Villa, Shradi, and Medina -- the top 3 scorers for 2018 -- and assume they or their replacements get 2,700 minutes each. I used Tinnerholm as my model at 31 games and 2697 minutes. That would give those 3 players 2,794 more minutes combined than they played in 2018, which is roughly a 1-players worth of a full season taken away from the rest of the team, or about 9% of the remaining team minutes (I excluded keepers). The good news is a 9.13% proportional reduction in the goal production for players 4 through the end of the roster is only about 3 goals. I feared it would be more.

I kind of think if we hire a "full-time Villa replacement" - then it's fair to assume the minutes for Berget, Medina and Shradi would just about stay the same. I'd guess a little less production from Shradi and a little more from Berget and Medina.

Of course, the real issue is what does missing Villa do to the chances everyone else gets. He didn't just score goals, but also lined up assists - 5 this past year and 9 the year before. He also attracted a ton of defensive focus, opening up space for everyone else, and tracked back to win balls in the midfield and start counters. These are the kinds of things that you alluded to in your first post, but worth reiterating.