Serious question for everyone, and I'd like as much of a detailed explanation as possible as to why you picked your option:
Would you prefer the next DP to be:
A) A veteran (Age 30-33) with name recognition that has a higher probability of being hurt (Plays in 20 of 34 games) but contributes when on the field consistently
B) A older veteran (Age 34-37) with larger name recognition with a high probability of being hurt (Plays 20 of 34 games) but contributes less when on the field
C) A young upstart (18-22) with little name recognition with low probability of being hurt (Plays 30 of 34 games) but is inconsistent with contributions on the field
D) An experienced player (23-28) with absolutely no name recognition with low probability of being hurt (Plays 33 of 34 games) but contributes consistently when on the field
Genuinely curious as to your responses and reasoning for selecting the option you did.
HOT TAKE:
I'm slowly gravitating toward the opinion that DPs don't actually matter more than hitting on your TAM level players. For example, I'd rather have something like 10 players making $500,000-$1,500,000
and their play showing that the deserve it than blowing our cash on a $5,000,000 DP and being hit-and-miss on a couple TAM guys.
Under this theory, players like Medina makes a ton of sense for DPs. From a cap management perspective, compare these two options under a spending budget of $6mm:
PLAYER / COST / CAP HIT
Medina / $600k / $200k (DP)
Ring / $550k + $400k DTAM / $150k
Diomande / $850k + $700k DTAM / $150k
TOTAL: $3.1mm / $500k
PLAYER / COST / CAP HIT
Villa / $6mm / $500k (DP)
TOTAL: $6mm / $500k
For the same cap hit, we got three very quality players for $3 million less in actual costs that can be allocated elsewhere on the roster, infrastructure, fan experience, or academy. Of course, you have to be successful with the players you bring in, but the upside is higher under this method than putting all your eggs in the DP basket and sacrificing 2-3 TAM level players.
So given all that, sign another Medina. But I wanna know what 26 year olds that aren't breaking thru to Champions League in Europe and available on a free for us to spend some of that DTAM on...
Here's your Villa replacement class, just pulling a few forwards from the high end of the TAM range on expiring contracts between 23-30 years old without looking into them beyond that:
https://www.transfermarkt.com/robert-beric/profil/spieler/91415
https://www.transfermarkt.com/laurent-depoitre/profil/spieler/90583
https://www.transfermarkt.com/sergi-enrich/leistungsdaten/spieler/81988
https://www.transfermarkt.com/fran-sol/profil/spieler/164292
https://www.transfermarkt.com/josip-drmic/profil/spieler/140579
https://www.transfermarkt.com/franco-di-santo/profil/spieler/59783
Diomande was a free transfer from Hull, 28 years old, and a Transfermarkt value of 1.5 million euros, for comparison. Gotta scout and hit right, but that's probably the right play. Hell, we can afford two for a smaller cap hit and less actual cost than spending $6 million on another Villa type.