2025 Roster and Transfer Discussion Thread

The Charles Dickens of roster economics uses a lot of words to make a few straightforward points:
  • Transfer fees are limited by the additional on-field value a player brings beyond their current market value.
  • Clubs pay a premium to capture future performance gains that exceed the market value.
  • Transfer fees aren’t arbitrary—they function as mechanisms to balance value shifts between clubs.
(Side note: I'm not sure anyone actually thinks fees are arbitrary, but I guess if you set a baseline of complete misunderstanding, it helps position your 10,000-word article as more revelatory.)

None of this changes the criticism of David Lee. Take Risa, for example—no one’s saying we should have gotten a fee for him on the way out. We get that there was no value left to recover. That’s the problem. And no one’s even arguing that Risa was a disastrous signing in isolation. The issue is structural:

If your model is “develop and sell,” but the majority of your high-cost acquisitions are losing value before they hit their prime, and the team is underperforming on the field, you are failing—regardless of how you frame transfer fee theory.

Under Lee over the last 3 years:
  • Transfer spending has increased significantly, with this much roster investment, better results should be expected
  • Roster churn is at an all-time high
  • On-field results are at an all-time low
That’s the issue, not a misunderstanding of transfer fee valuation and front office strategy.
But the bigger point is that you can't equate transfer value with player value. A transfer fee is that the real value of a player. We will be paying fees for some players, and we won't see an increase in "transfer value". This isn't necessarily indicative of a bad sporting decision. To talk about Thiago Martins or Birk Risa in the same breath as Jovan Mijatovic doesnt really make a lot of sense. To talk about transfer spend without talking about how there is a salary spend dynamic that plays a role in the signings (ala Hannes Wolf), is missing a big part of the conversation. Or how it doesn't really matter sporting wise if we overpay for a U22 or DP.
 
But the bigger point is that you can't equate transfer value with player value. A transfer fee is that the real value of a player. We will be paying fees for some players, and we won't see an increase in "transfer value". This isn't necessarily indicative of a bad sporting decision. To talk about Thiago Martins or Birk Risa in the same breath as Jovan Mijatovic doesnt really make a lot of sense. To talk about transfer spend without talking about how there is a salary spend dynamic that plays a role in the signings (ala Hannes Wolf), is missing a big part of the conversation. Or how it doesn't really matter sporting wise if we overpay for a U22 or DP.
But it may end up being important, if we grossly overpay for a couple of dud U22s, if that encourages the decision makers to turn off the spigot and say "you had your budget to spend, now make something out of it". We have no idea if that's ever said behind closed doors or not. It doesn't matter in the sense that you can still cram more spending under your cap according to the rules, but it may matter if it limits future spending according to some internal blueprint.
 
But the bigger point is that you can't equate transfer value with player value. A transfer fee is that the real value of a player. We will be paying fees for some players, and we won't see an increase in "transfer value". This isn't necessarily indicative of a bad sporting decision. To talk about Thiago Martins or Birk Risa in the same breath as Jovan Mijatovic doesnt really make a lot of sense. To talk about transfer spend without talking about how there is a salary spend dynamic that plays a role in the signings (ala Hannes Wolf), is missing a big part of the conversation. Or how it doesn't really matter sporting wise if we overpay for a U22 or DP.

This isn’t about individual player value; it’s about how limited resources are allocated and how that affects overall roster quality. With a fixed budget, overpaying for a U22 or DP matters.

No one’s saying Risa was as poor a signing as Jovan, but even factoring in salary and fee, it wasn’t a good use of resources. He earned $750K per season, with a $1M transfer fee. Over two years, that’s $1.25M per year, making him the second most expensive non-DP/U22 player after Wolf, who earned $1.5M but had no fee. If Lee had $1.5M annually to spend on a CB, he likely could’ve found someone significantly better, but instead, he bet on the upside of a young converted attacker from a lower-level league and lost again.

Risa was a regular starter for about a year before injuries and Haak pushed him out. While the defense put up impressive stats during his starts, it was during a stretch when Cushing had the team in an overly defensive posture, and the overall results were poor. Given the cost, it’s hard to argue Risa was a successful signing.

Had he stayed longer, the fee might’ve been amortized into better value. Or, if he’d maintained or increased his market value, the club could have sold him. Instead, he became a costly short-term asset who lost value, another example of a premium paid based on projected upside that didn’t materialize.

On his own, Risa wasn’t a disaster. But in the broader context of Lee investing limited transfer dollars into players meant to appreciate, and instead getting diminishing returns, it’s absolutely fair to group Risa with the rest.
 
Really long time in announcing the Raul Gustavo deal
Not sure what the holdup is there. I thought for sure it would be done by now. Could it be due to taking a shot at Julián Martínez first? He would have been a U22, which maybe would have made the math work a little better.

Now HRB as another name floating, Mickaël Nadé of AS Saint-Étienne, but everybody and their brother wants him, apparently.
 
Not sure what the holdup is there. I thought for sure it would be done by now. Could it be due to taking a shot at Julián Martínez first? He would have been a U22, which maybe would have made the math work a little better.

Now HRB as another name floating, Mickaël Nadé of AS Saint-Étienne, but everybody and their brother wants him, apparently.

I wonder if they're waiting to announce him until the visa clears.
 
I wonder if they're waiting to announce him until the visa clears.

have they ever waited for a visa to clear to announce a player? don't think they care about that. especially if they read this forum, they would just announce the signings to put us at ease and we can blame the state department instead of Lee hah.
 

LAFC gets 33 year old Son, fresh off leading Spurs to a major European trophy, and we potentially get this guy..... So much for all of CFGs quotes when the team launched about wanting to be an MLS model franchise.

Disappointed Malcolm In The Middle GIF by Malcolm France
 
I think lists of DP spend and productivity are borderline useless now with the U22 program. For a long time, even with the TAM explosion, DPs represented a substantial portion of each team's special roster toolbox and therefore were a decent proxy for ambition and success even though they were just a bit more than 10% of the total roster.

But now with U22, DPs now represent only 40% or 60% of a team's special roster options. It makes sense to break out DP production from U22 production for analysis and comparison purposes, but looking only at DPs without a similar list for U22 is pretty meaningless at this point.
For NYCFC, as we know, the full DP+ U22 picture remains bleak, but theoretically we could have hit big with one of our U22 signings. And I just don't know if there are teams near the bottom of the DP production list who did get great production from 1 or more U22 players.
 
I think lists of DP spend and productivity are borderline useless now with the U22 program. For a long time, even with the TAM explosion, DPs represented a substantial portion of each team's special roster toolbox and therefore were a decent proxy for ambition and success even though they were just a bit more than 10% of the total roster.

But now with U22, DPs now represent only 40% or 60% of a team's special roster options. It makes sense to break out DP production from U22 production for analysis and comparison purposes, but looking only at DPs without a similar list for U22 is pretty meaningless at this point.
For NYCFC, as we know, the full DP+ U22 picture remains bleak, but theoretically we could have hit big with one of our U22 signings. And I just don't know if there are teams near the bottom of the DP production list who did get great production from 1 or more U22 players.
In past discussions, I’ve been told that when I criticize our underperforming U22s, the general view across the league is that U22 players rarely deliver high production and should be evaluated primarily as development-and-sale assets rather than by on-field output. I’m not sure I fully agree, but if that truly reflects how teams approach U22 slots, then productivity comparisons should separate DPs and U22s, even though both are technically special roster spots and can be flexed somewhat between each other.
 
Back
Top