General MLS Discussion

JCMore said:
Just really enjoying the parity in this league tonight. You can have some really complete teams like Seattle still lose 1-0 to Chicago which is a dumpster fire. I went to check the standings to see the supporters shield race and it really is incredible how much the top 5 or 6ish teams are in the hunt. And that realistically top 10 could potentially win it with some upsets. Definitely a more entertaining over all product because of it imo. I know the mlssoccer.com pundits say “it’s mls so anything can happen” really anything can happen because of the parity and I just felt like writing an appreciation post for that reason.
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Seattle has not scored a goal in their last 3 games and are still below the playoff line. They had everything break right from them in CCL. (The fact that both their #6s are injured - João Paulo out for the year with an ACL tear and wunderkind Obed Vargas also out doesn’t help and partially explains their struggles.)
 
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Following up on Austin and how they are outperforming xG: they are exceeding their xG differential by almost 1 goal every game (0.93). The highest such number in MLS since 2013 was Atlanta's first season where they outdid their xGD by 0.75 per game for the season. It's almost certain Austin will not sustain this level. I don't expect a collapse, but I doubt they finish top 3 for the Shield (they're currently second).
 
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Interesting results for the various friendlies between MLS clubs and European clubs.

Some were predictably lopsided for the European clubs, but not all.

Charlotte's "victory" over Chelsea definitely flattered them, as Chelsea had many more chances, and Charlotte had to rely on a late penalty to equalize.

But holy hell - what happened between Minnesota and Everton??? 4-0!!! Lampard's worst defeat to an MLS team since the Red Bull Wedding.
 
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Gotham Gator said:
Interesting results for the various friendlies between MLS clubs and European clubs.

Some were predictably lopsided for the European clubs, but not all.

Charlotte's "victory" over Chelsea definitely flattered them, as Chelsea had many more chances, and Charlotte had to rely on a late penalty to equalize.

But holy hell - what happened between Minnesota and Everton??? 4-0!!! Lampard's worst defeat to an MLS team since the Red Bull Wedding.
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everton were practically a championship side last year and they lost their best attacking player this summer. They are going to be fighting to stay up again this year unless lampard can pull of a miracle with what he's got or sign a handful of impactful players (unlikely)
 
Austin hosts the Red Bulls tonight. What's your priority-

Austin is a Shield rival with the exact same record as NYCFC and a much easier schedule. They have 8 Home games left (only 5 Away) and the Red Bulls are one of only 2 tough opponents Austin will face at Home. The other is LAFC. And if LAFC get points in that game, that hurts NYCFC even more in the Shield competition. That match is LAFC's second toughest remaining match.

Red Bulls are 8 points behind NYCFC and for the moment even on games played.

You can root for ties all you want but most games don't end in a tie. Assuming a true result, what do you want. I have to want RB to win tonight more than Austin.
 
mgarbowski said:
Austin hosts the Red Bulls tonight. What's your priority-

Austin is a Shield rival with the exact same record as NYCFC and a much easier schedule. They have 8 Home games left (only 5 Away) and the Red Bulls are one of only 2 tough opponents Austin will face at Home. The other is LAFC. And if LAFC get points in that game, that hurts NYCFC even more in the Shield competition. That match is LAFC's second toughest remaining match.

Red Bulls are 8 points behind NYCFC and for the moment even on games played.

You can root for ties all you want but most games don't end in a tie. Assuming a true result, what do you want. I have to want RB to win tonight more than Austin.
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Draw first. Austin win second. Cheering against Austin is seasonal. Cheering against Jersey is forever.

With respect to the shield, Austin isn't the problem - LAFC is. I'll defer to statisticians that prove it otherwise, but the scenarios where Austin tops NYCFC for the shield and LAFC (or Philadelphia) does not must be rare. Aren't the CCL spots for next year still Cup winner, Shield winner, other conference winner, and US Open Cup winner? If so, finishing second or third is the same. LAFC and Philadelphia are the concerns. Austin is collateral.
 
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Brooklyn Blue said:
Draw first. Austin win second. Cheering against Austin is seasonal. Cheering against Jersey is forever.

With respect to the shield, Austin isn't the problem - LAFC is. I'll defer to statisticians that prove it otherwise, but the scenarios where Austin tops NYCFC for the shield and LAFC (or Philadelphia) does not must be rare. Aren't the CCL spots for next year still Cup winner, Shield winner, other conference winner, and US Open Cup winner? If so, finishing second or third is the same. LAFC and Philadelphia are the concerns. Austin is collateral.
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Good analysis, makes sense.
538 puts the shield odds at LAFC 53%, NYC 24%, Union 12%, Austin 9%. Everyone else is irrelevant at <1%. An Austin win tonight probably puts them at 10 or 11%. The Union have the easiest schedule; NYCFC has the toughest. Fair point about the combination odds. An Austin shield only matters for CCL if NYCFC is behind Philly and ahead of LAFC. On the other hand, I think it is wrong to value the Shield itself at 0. The players obviously don't. It is less than the Cup but not nothing, and we have to finish ahead of everyone. Ignore the odds, IF LAFC has an unexpected slump - it happens - Philly and Austin are effectively as close as we are to them and in position to take advantage of that.
 
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Can’t imagine rooting for Red Bull in any situation. Certainly not their current bullying, anti-football iteration.
 
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Austin fan on twitter "Ain’t no other team coming back like we did… we got a squad people! Cant win em all, but we ain’t goin down without a fight!" AHEM NYCFC at Cincey might beg to differ.
 
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Davo15 said:
Sounds like the game is wild. Jersey up 4-3 as I type this.
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energy drink soccer at its best. 53% passing accuracy…yikes. But we all know they play destructor ball.
 
Brooklyn Blue said:
Draw first. Austin win second. Cheering against Austin is seasonal. Cheering against Jersey is forever.

With respect to the shield, Austin isn't the problem - LAFC is. I'll defer to statisticians that prove it otherwise, but the scenarios where Austin tops NYCFC for the shield and LAFC (or Philadelphia) does not must be rare. Aren't the CCL spots for next year still Cup winner, Shield winner, other conference winner, and US Open Cup winner? If so, finishing second or third is the same. LAFC and Philadelphia are the concerns. Austin is collateral.
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The one caveat to all this is when one of the clubs qualifies in more than one way. An example would be if Philadelphia and LAFC win each conference and then one of them win the MLS Cup. In that scenario, the 3rd place team in the Supporters' Shield gets the CCL spot.
 
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mgarbowski said:
The Union have the easiest schedule; NYCFC has the toughest.
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where can you find the remaining SOS? I’d love to see it. Also, does it factor in home and away? Also with us playing in three home stadiums that’ll also factor in, but not in the math used I’m sure
 
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