Interesting stuff from Mr. Doyle.
How serious a chance do you have of making the playoffs if you're below the line entering Week 23? Let's dig back through the last three years (since the expansion to six playoff spots in each conference) to put it into perspective:
2017: In the East, Atlanta United climbed above the line while Orlando City dropped. In the West, FC Dallas' death spiral was just picking up steam this time last year, which opened the door for San Jose to eventually climb into the playoffs.
2016: You remember this one, right? D.C. United jumped up over the final three months of the season while the Revs did a nosedive, and in the West the Sounders made their now-annual second-half surge as the Whitecaps dropped out.
2015: It was the first year of TAM, which was added midseason, so you'd think that would have made the league more volatile. But nope. Everyone who was above the playoff line as of Week 22 was above the playoff line at the end of the year.
In other words: Four teams in three years have managed to make a late-season push over the hump. In 2016 those pushes were sparked by team-defining transfer window moves (Nicolas Lodeiro and, yes, Patrick Mullins), while in 2017 they were sparked by a weird schedule (Atlanta's run of home games in September and October) and Los Toros Tejanos' still-so-complete-I-can't-wrap-my-head-around-it meltdown.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/08/03/armchair-analyst-your-complete-guide-week-23-mls-slate2017: In the East, Atlanta United climbed above the line while Orlando City dropped. In the West, FC Dallas' death spiral was just picking up steam this time last year, which opened the door for San Jose to eventually climb into the playoffs.
2016: You remember this one, right? D.C. United jumped up over the final three months of the season while the Revs did a nosedive, and in the West the Sounders made their now-annual second-half surge as the Whitecaps dropped out.
2015: It was the first year of TAM, which was added midseason, so you'd think that would have made the league more volatile. But nope. Everyone who was above the playoff line as of Week 22 was above the playoff line at the end of the year.
In other words: Four teams in three years have managed to make a late-season push over the hump. In 2016 those pushes were sparked by team-defining transfer window moves (Nicolas Lodeiro and, yes, Patrick Mullins), while in 2017 they were sparked by a weird schedule (Atlanta's run of home games in September and October) and Los Toros Tejanos' still-so-complete-I-can't-wrap-my-head-around-it meltdown.
