NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion

[Shwafta]

most likely this team isn’t winning in Miami given their road form and Miami’s improvement.
And then NYCFC comes back, wins to get into the playoffs, followed by a trip to Atlanta or Orlando to lose and fully make us tear our hair out.

What Miami improvement do you speak of?

They lost 6 in a row against playoff opposition and then "blew out" toronto and cincinatti (which is soooo difficult to do, i know)... and then just lost to Atlanta, again.


Won't argue with our road form thing, though. One can hope.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I've posted on here about how Ronny seemed to have no idea what to do with this roster of players, but if the last 2 games are any indication it seems like he's finally figured out a winning formula. Elbow right back Sands letting the LB run up the wing and Santi pushing inside toward his more natural #10 position with Thiago providing the right wing support has been working pretty well.

Necessity is the mother of innovation. I really like the formation because I think it lets us put as many of our best players on the field at the same time. We all know that the 3 CB trio of Sands-Chanot-Callens is one of the best in the league. The issue was getting them all on the field at the same time: Tinnerholm demanded a starting position, so the elbow back was never gonna happen as long as he was healthy. However, his injury meant that we needed to improvise. I like Gray, but putting Sands back there has really opened up a new tactical dimension that we've never shown before.

Ronny really got this right, so far. I hope he'll adjust the tactics to the team we're playing, but this formation should work well vs. Miami and Philly.

What's interesting about this too, is this is not where Sands will thrive most, in the elbow back position. But he's too damn good and flexible enough to pull this off, while the team has quality at CB in Chanot and Callens, and defensive midfield depth, and lack of depth/experience at RB.

It takes balls to move one of the best players on the team to an uncomfortable position or out of where they are best. But in this case, it's working out best for this squad.

 

[Gotham Gator]

What's interesting about this too, is this is not where Sands will thrive most, in the elbow back position. But he's too damn good and flexible enough to pull this off, while the team has quality at CB in Chanot and Callens, and defensive midfield depth, and lack of depth/experience at RB.

It takes balls to move one of the best players on the team to an uncomfortable position or out of where they are best. But in this case, it's working out best for this squad.

I also wonder if this is in part to compensate for a lack of defensive strength at LB for us. Sands staying back allows Callens to slide farther over.

 

[Sabo]

I also wonder if this is in part to compensate for a lack of defensive strength at LB for us. Sands staying back allows Callens to slide farther over.

Ever since Sands was first called up to the USMNT, it seems to me Ronny is showcasing him in positions for Berhalter. First it was a bunch of games as one of the 2 centerbacks in a 4 man back line to show that he can play that position -- and now the right elbow back position that Berhalter loves and really wanted to plug Tyler Adams into but cant because the USMNT needs him at the 6 too much to do.

 

[Shwafta]

HERE WE GO GUYS!

Who can clinch playoffs or be eliminated in MLS Week 34 | MLSSoccer.com

Below is a list of teams that can clinch a seed or spot in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs and a list of teams that can be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention during MLS Week 34. PENDING: - Portland can clinch a playoff spot if LAFC lose or tie in

www.mlssoccer.com

New York City will clinch a berth in the Audi 2021 MLS Cup Playoffs IF:

1. New York City win vs. Miami AND
2. New York lose vs. Montréal

or:

1. New York City win vs. Miami AND
2. D.C. lose or tie vs. Columbus

or:

1. New York City win vs. Miami AND
2. Orlando lose vs. Nashville

or:

1. New York City win vs. Miami AND
2. Atlanta lose vs. Toronto

or:

1. New York City win vs. Miami AND
2. New York-Montréal tie AND
3. Atlanta tie vs. Toronto

or NYC tie and other teams lose/tie:

1. New York City tie vs. Miami AND
2. Montréal lose or tie vs. New York AND
3. Orlando lose or tie vs. Nashville AND
4. D.C. lose vs. Columbus

 

[LionNYC]

Looking at the remaining games and seeking to get the 2nd seed, I'll be rooting for an Orlando win over Nashville today. And then the Red Bulls win/tie vs. Nashville on Decision Day. If both those results happen and we beat Philadelphia, we're the 2nd seed.

 

[Antidote P. Smiley]

Atlanta play the Red Bulls which will be the 33rd game for both teams (according to the MLS standings they both sit at 32)
Then on decision day Red Bulls play Nashville for their 34th but I don’t see an Atlanta match for their 34th. Anybody help unravel this weirdness I’ve fallen into.

 

[LionNYC]

Atlanta play the Red Bulls which will be the 33rd game for both teams (according to the MLS standings they both sit at 32)
Then on decision day Red Bulls play Nashville for their 34th but I don’t see an Atlanta match for their 34th. Anybody help unravel this weirdness I’ve fallen into.

Cincinnati vs. Atlanta on Decision Day

 

[Gotham Gator]

Cincinnati vs. Atlanta on Decision Day

So, why list it? It's an easy 3 for the boys in stripes.

 

[Gotham Gator]

i was rooting for a tie in the Orlando game. Keeps us 2 points up on Orlando, so we will stay ahead of them for sure with a tie vs. Philly. Most important thing right now is to stay ahead of as many teams as possible and get that home playoff spot. Plus, Nashville is still in our sites if we beat Philly and Nashville lose to the Red Bulls on Sunday. Of course it would have been nice if Cincy had pulled the upset, but that's not a chaotic brew they were capable of stirring up with their wooden spoon.

The next interesting game is New Jersey - Atlanta on Wednesday. What to root for there? I think also a tie, and barring that, an Atlanta win. Either of those results puts us ahead of the Red Bulls regardless of Sunday's outcomes. A tie in that game means we only need a tie vs. Philly to stay ahead of Atlanta too. If Atlanta win, then we will need to match or exceed their result on Sunday to stay ahead.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Trying to summarize the potential Sunday Chaos. Three scenarios organized by the outcome between New Jersey - Atlanta on Wednesday.

New Jersey beats Atlanta
NYCFC beat Philly - NYCFC finish 2nd if Nashville lose to Red Bulls and 3rd if Nashville win or tie.
NYCFC tie Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if Nashville beat or tie Red Bulls and 5th if Red Bulls beat Nashville.
NYCFC lose to Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if both Red Bulls and Orlando (at Montreal) lose or tie; 5th if either of those teams win; 6th if they both win

New Jersey & Atlanta Tie
NYCFC beat Philly - NYCFC finish 2nd if Nashville lose to Red Bulls and 3rd if Nashville wins or ties.
NYCFC tie Philly - NYCFC finish 4th regardless of other results.
NYCFC lose to Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if both Atlanta (at Cincy) and Orlando lose or tie; 5th if either of those teams win; 6th if they both win

Atlanta beats New Jersey
NYCFC beat Philly - NYCFC finish 2nd if Nashville lose to Red Bulls and 3rd if Nashville win or tie.
NYCFC tie Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if Atlanta lose or tie and 5th if Atlanta win.
NYCFC lose to Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if Atlanta lose and Orlando lose or tie; 5th if only one of those go the other way; 6th if they both go the other way.

 

[Gotham Gator]

A few other tidbits.

1. We should root for Montreal to beat Houston at home on Wednesday. That leaves them able to pass as many as 3 other teams and playing for the playoffs against Orlando on Sunday.
2. Each of the Eastern teams playing on Wednesday face an opponent on Sunday that did not play on Wednesday - i.e. that will have the advantage of a full week's rest. This includes Atlanta, New Jersey and Montreal.
3. Atlanta clinches on Wednesday with a win or tie; NJ basically clinch with a win (they could conceivably be caught my Montreal).
4. Here is who could pass NJ (currently in 7th) depending on its points in the last two games:
   1. 0 points - DC, Columbus, Montreal
   2. 1 point - DC, Montreal
   3. 2-3 points - Montreal
   4. 4+ points - Nobody

 

[SoupInNYC]

Some season long notes (looking at full, 34 game seasons):

• As long as NYCFC doesn't allow 7 goals on Sunday, they will finish with a club record for least goals allowed.
• As long as NYCFC doesn't allow 2 goals or more on Sunday, they will finish with a club record for least goals allowed per game (1.087 last year)
• NYCFC will almost certainly finish with a club record in xGA (currently at 32.95 vs 41.26 in 2017)
• NYCFC will almost certainly finish with a club record in xGD (currently at +22.09 vs +12.28 in 2018)
• If NYCFC wins by 1 goal against Philly, it will tie a club record for GD in a season at +21 (two goals or more obviously sets the record)
• If NYCFC generates 1.81 xG against Philly, it will tie a club record for xGF in a season at 56.85 (2019)
• With a win on Sunday, Ronny Deila will be tied with Dome Torrent for second in points earned at 92 (Dome did it in 53 games, Ronny will be in 57)

 

[Shwafta]

Some season long notes (looking at full, 34 game seasons):

• As long as NYCFC doesn't allow 7 goals on Sunday, they will finish with a club record for least goals allowed.
• As long as NYCFC doesn't allow 2 goals or more on Sunday, they will finish with a club record for least goals allowed per game (1.087 last year)
• NYCFC will almost certainly finish with a club record in xGA (currently at 32.95 vs 41.26 in 2017)
• NYCFC will almost certainly finish with a club record in xGD (currently at +22.09 vs +12.28 in 2018)
• If NYCFC wins by 1 goal against Philly, it will tie a club record for GD in a season at +21 (two goals or more obviously sets the record)
• If NYCFC generates 1.81 xG against Philly, it will tie a club record for xGF in a season at 56.85 (2019)
• With a win on Sunday, Ronny Deila will be tied with Dome Torrent for second in points earned at 92 (Dome did it in 53 games, Ronny will be in 57)

Crazy to see how consistent our defense has been in general. Last year in the shortened season we have 1.087 per game, and now we are on track for just about the same exact thing!

 

[canchon]

Trying to summarize the potential Sunday Chaos. Three scenarios organized by the outcome between New Jersey - Atlanta on Wednesday.

New Jersey beats Atlanta
NYCFC beat Philly - NYCFC finish 2nd if Nashville lose to Red Bulls and 3rd if Nashville win or tie.
NYCFC tie Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if Nashville beat or tie Red Bulls and 5th if Red Bulls beat Nashville.
NYCFC lose to Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if both Red Bulls and Orlando (at Montreal) lose or tie; 5th if either of those teams win; 6th if they both win

New Jersey & Atlanta Tie
NYCFC beat Philly - NYCFC finish 2nd if Nashville lose to Red Bulls and 3rd if Nashville wins or ties.
NYCFC tie Philly - NYCFC finish 4th regardless of other results.
NYCFC lose to Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if both Atlanta (at Cincy) and Orlando lose or tie; 5th if either of those teams win; 6th if they both win

Atlanta beats New Jersey
NYCFC beat Philly - NYCFC finish 2nd if Nashville lose to Red Bulls and 3rd if Nashville win or tie.
NYCFC tie Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if Atlanta lose or tie and 5th if Atlanta win.
NYCFC lose to Philly - NYCFC finish 4th if Atlanta lose and Orlando lose or tie; 5th if only one of those go the other way; 6th if they both go the other way.

 

[Shwafta]

Anyone remember which season it was that we seemingly won like all of our games with come-from-behind victories? Was it that 64 point season?

 

[Shwafta]

Anyone remember which season it was that we seemingly won like all of our games with come-from-behind victories? Was it that 64 point season?

Five Things: #Villa50 & Comeback Kings | New York City FC

For all manner of reasons, NYCFC’s 2-1 win over Seattle Sounders is one that will stick in the memory banks for some time… Whether it was the crazy conditions, David Villa’s 50th goal or the Pride Day celebrations, there really was something for everyone on Saturday. Managing Editor Mark Booth

www.nycfc.com

This is the only reference i find so maybe it's that season? 4 times in the first few months. But I seem to also recall it went longer than just that

 

[canchon]

SportsClubStats gives NYCFC a 84% chance of a top four seed with its simulations.

NYCFC win: 82% to end in 3rd place.

NYCFC tie: 80% to end in 4th place and get the last home game.

NYCFC loss: 47% 4th, 44% 5th place.

New York City FC Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

New York City FC playoff odds, and who you should root for today.

www.sportsclubstats.com

 

[Gotham Gator]

Good stuff.

538 has the following odds.

2nd: 17%
3rd: 40%
4th: 26% - 83% to finish top 4
5th: 15%
6th: 2%

Win MLS Cup: 13%

Major League Soccer Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Major League Soccer predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Shwafta]

Good stuff.

538 has the following odds.

2nd: 17%
3rd: 40%
4th: 26% - 83% to finish top 4
5th: 15%
6th: 2%

Win MLS Cup: 13%

Major League Soccer Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Major League Soccer predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Just remember that we have to beat NE at home. Which we've done, but isn't exactly the easiest thing to do.