Does anyone still think Ronny is the right person to lead this team in the future? Not asking if you think he deserves to lose his job today. Asking if you’ve seen enough over the past two seasons to make you think he’s capable of delivering a Supporters Shield type season.
NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion
- Thread starter Gotham Gator
- Start date
Given how things rolled out with Kreis, I think it's likely that Ronny will get to finish the season.
Given how things are going right now, I think it's very unlikely that he does enough to remain employed once the season ends.
Given how things are going right now, I think it's very unlikely that he does enough to remain employed once the season ends.
Counter? Villa got Kreis fired. I get the sense that the team actuelly likes Ronny.
He hasn’t gotten spanked at Atlanta yet. That’s still coming.
I have been on the #RonnyOut train since the beginning and have never gotten off. Based on this "slump", his broken record press conferences, and the consistent lack of game plan in important games, I think when we were winning, it was despite Ronny instead of because of Ronny. Sure, we had some players find a new life (i.e., Medina), but it was short lived. On the whole, nearly every player has regressed. The players may like him, and that's fine. But it doesn't seem to me like they like him so much he inspires them to play like they can.
Very Ted Lasso season 1-esque. Excellent team chemistry off the field by the end, but they just can’t show it on the fucking field. We are one Roy Kent style career ending injury from Chanot away from the story line. Hell you could even say Tinnerholm’s injury fits the bill but I think he will be back.
NYCFC needs 3 wins and a draw in its final 5 games to hit 50 points.
their past five seasons were 54-57-56-64-58(pro-rated for 34 games).
Ronny will deliver the worst season since the Kreis initial season. He’s got to be gone after this season.
One bright spot is that NYCFC can stop with this dumb “we have the most points in the league for the last five seasons” participation trophy crap after this season.
their past five seasons were 54-57-56-64-58(pro-rated for 34 games).
Ronny will deliver the worst season since the Kreis initial season. He’s got to be gone after this season.
One bright spot is that NYCFC can stop with this dumb “we have the most points in the league for the last five seasons” participation trophy crap after this season.
Here's something. It's not everything but it's notable and I haven't seen anyone pick it up yet. NYCFC's proficiency at scoring on set pieces fell off a cliff after the first 10 games of the season. Goals in the run of play also varied but not the same way or extent:
First last year. SoupInNYC was the first to note that the teams set piece success increased dramatically at the end of last season.
All phases of offensive production improved dramatically in the final 10 games. Run of play goals more than doubled, as did combined free kicks plus corners by a roughly similar factor.
Now 2021:
In sum, 9 set piece goals in the first 10 games compensated for weak results from the run of play. Since then, in 19 games,NYCFC has zero free kick goals, and 2 from corners. Solid if unspectacular run of play scoring made up the difference in games 11-20, but in the most recent 9 games nothing has worked.
When we started the season so well with set piece success, I was concerned it would not sustain. I suspect, but don't know, that set piece scoring is inherently more variable and harder to maintain than run of play goals. Arguably, the dramatic fluctuations in run of play scoring tell a more important story, but the set piece drought in the last 19 games shouldn't be ignored.
For a more complete analysis, you would need to know how many corner and dangerous free kick opportunities the team won in each set of games. You would expect those to vary somewhat in line with the number of chances created in the run of play. But though it may be likely that set piece opportunities have gone down, it seems very unlikely that they have gone down as much as the set piece goals have. I also offer no opinion as to the reason. It could be it took 20 games or so for opposing scouts and coaches to adjust to NYCFC's improved set piece plays and schemes. Or it could just be standard variance.
Finally, I think this breakdown is neutral on the Ronny out question. It does not help him, but it also doesn't damn him any more than the general run of poor form already does. I doubt there's a good argument that is not really a results-oriented bit of reasoning. In the end, he stands or fall on the whole body of work.
Which, yes, means this is in some ways a nothingburger, but if Ronny or anyone else is going to fix the team it helps to know what worked when things went well and what has not during the poor results.
Notes: PKs are technically set piece goals in many official stat systems, but I don't count them when measuring set piece proficiency because they are very much a different animal. I list them here just to include all the goals and have the numbers add up. Also, I count own goals here in whatever phase of play they took place in. An OG on a corner is a corner, etc.
First last year. SoupInNYC was the first to note that the teams set piece success increased dramatically at the end of last season.
All phases of offensive production improved dramatically in the final 10 games. Run of play goals more than doubled, as did combined free kicks plus corners by a roughly similar factor.
Now 2021:
In sum, 9 set piece goals in the first 10 games compensated for weak results from the run of play. Since then, in 19 games,NYCFC has zero free kick goals, and 2 from corners. Solid if unspectacular run of play scoring made up the difference in games 11-20, but in the most recent 9 games nothing has worked.
When we started the season so well with set piece success, I was concerned it would not sustain. I suspect, but don't know, that set piece scoring is inherently more variable and harder to maintain than run of play goals. Arguably, the dramatic fluctuations in run of play scoring tell a more important story, but the set piece drought in the last 19 games shouldn't be ignored.
For a more complete analysis, you would need to know how many corner and dangerous free kick opportunities the team won in each set of games. You would expect those to vary somewhat in line with the number of chances created in the run of play. But though it may be likely that set piece opportunities have gone down, it seems very unlikely that they have gone down as much as the set piece goals have. I also offer no opinion as to the reason. It could be it took 20 games or so for opposing scouts and coaches to adjust to NYCFC's improved set piece plays and schemes. Or it could just be standard variance.
Finally, I think this breakdown is neutral on the Ronny out question. It does not help him, but it also doesn't damn him any more than the general run of poor form already does. I doubt there's a good argument that is not really a results-oriented bit of reasoning. In the end, he stands or fall on the whole body of work.
Which, yes, means this is in some ways a nothingburger, but if Ronny or anyone else is going to fix the team it helps to know what worked when things went well and what has not during the poor results.
Notes: PKs are technically set piece goals in many official stat systems, but I don't count them when measuring set piece proficiency because they are very much a different animal. I list them here just to include all the goals and have the numbers add up. Also, I count own goals here in whatever phase of play they took place in. An OG on a corner is a corner, etc.
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It's possible that after Sunday we won't be able to have a first round playoff home game...
www.playoffstatus.com
New York NY City FC Playoff Spot Elimination Options
This Elimination Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the NY City FC losing certain playoff spots.
www.playoffstatus.com
It's possible that after Sunday we won't be able to have a first round playoff home game...
New York NY City FC Playoff Spot Elimination Options
This Elimination Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the NY City FC losing certain playoff spots.
that site shows if they get in, it’s as a 6 or 7 seed to promptly go to Nashville/Philly and we all know what that will lead to.
Does it even matter anymore? If I am any of the 5 remaining teams, I'm just going to take a page out of the red bulls playbook and just high press the shit out of NYCFC and knock long balls all day against the NYCFC right side where a rookie right back and a tired and error prone chanot are. Clearly, no matter how many times we go up against a high press/long ball chaotic style, Ronny has no clue how to handle it... especially in the close confines of yankee stadium's smaller pitch.
yep. Chicago came out and pressed NYCFC and their reaction was “wow we didn’t know they would do that”. They are really easy to play against.
exactly. sure, you can be surprised by how a team comes at you if they do something they usually don't do based on their prior games, but being unable to adjust is a big problem. If the answer to breaking down this "very good team" is as simple as "press the shit out of them" ... that's a coaching problem.
(if you're too lazy to click into the post...)
Does anyone have a list of players who have had COVID?
Interesting study:
Not suggesting this is a reason for team results as other teams have also had COVID cases. Just curious about our own.
Also, just wow - 5% drop in performance is a huge cost for a professional athlete.
Interesting study:
Not suggesting this is a reason for team results as other teams have also had COVID cases. Just curious about our own.
Also, just wow - 5% drop in performance is a huge cost for a professional athlete.
Talles Magno had Covid twice, and three other players tested positive last December, one of them being a keeper. This ESPN article says it wasn't Johnson or Barazza, so I guess it was Stuver.
A couple of worthwhile notes:
- They count a player as infected based on test data only and did not disaggregate based upon symptoms. This means that players who tested positive but had zero or minimal symptoms were included in the infected group and they simply do not know whether such players were affected as much as the players with full blown cases, or less, or not at all. Or possibly more, though that seems unlikely.
- They limited the study to the pre-vaccine period so the study says nothing about the effect on players who are vaccinated but test positive (and very often have no symptoms).
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Pointless Kit Observation
The draw against Atlanta represented the first point earned in the 2021 Secondary Kit in 6 opportunities.
Sean Johnson
Out of 26 MLS keepers in MLS with at least 1500 minutes so far, Johnson ranks 23rd in Goals Allowed - xG Faced. He ranks 22nd in Goals Allowed / xG Faced. He has not improved in the second half. He missed 5 games for international duty. So I compared his first 12 games to his last 13. His 13th game of the season was a clean sheet over Miami 2-0, so putting in in the second half was a gift to the second half. Here are the figures
First 12 1183 minutes, Goals Allowed - xG 0.88, GA / xG 1.07.
Last 13 1286 minutes, Goals Allowed - xG 2.35, GA / xG 1.19.
The clear howlers have largely gone away, but he has allowed simply too many goals for the number and difficulty of shots he has faced.
NYCFC GF | GA | GD | One Goal Games
The paradox of 2021 NYCFC is that the clear driver of the team's big slump and poor performance is a failure to score goals. But only 3 of the 7 teams ahead of NYCFC in the standings have scored more goals. Nashville has 8 more points yet only 2 more goals than NYCFC. NYCFC has scored more goals than Philly, Orlando, Atlanta and Montreal, plus the Galaxy and Colorado in the West (plus all the mediocre to bad teams in both conferences). NYCFC also ranks 4th in the East by Goals Conceded, and is 3rd in Goal Differential in the East and tied for 5th in Goal Differential for the full league.
So why is NYCFC sitting below the playoff line? As previously discussed it is mostly efficiency and 1-goal games.
Here is a table of the MLS East showing each team's record in 1-goal games (plus draws), sorted by each team's PPG in those games:
It's no surprise to see New England at the top and NYCFC near the bottom. Now let's look at how much each team does in 1 goal games compared to their PPG overall:
Now this is something. The Revolution almost had to slip a bit because their overall record is so high it is hard to exceed it. But if your explanation for why NYCFC has a poor record despite a high goal differential is that our coach or team lacks grit, or does not know how to win close games, I'd like to hear the explanation for the rest of this table. Do Nashville and DC have the worst coaches in the conference? Do Toronto, Miami, Orlando and Chicago have the best coaches, or do their players, despite horrible records, have grit and that certain undefinable know how that allows them to get results in close games and overcome the limitations of poor talent? Because they all do a lot better in close games than overall. Chicago just fired their coach. Was that a mistake? Oscar Pareja has a history of MLS success, so maybe there's something to it, but how come his knack abandons him in the post-season? Nashville and the Union both have decent results in 1-goal games, yet significantly below what they accomplish in all other games. Is that because they are even better and more talented than we realize and are held back by poor coaches who cause them to concede results in close games?
Does this stat only apply to and condemn Ronny Deila and for everyone else it is just a fluke?
Or maybe, just maybe, a team's record in 1-goal soccer games compared to its overall record is largely a function of randomness that reveals little about the coach, or grit, or any special talent in close games.
Conclusion
Here's my prediction. I think our owners and management have put together a flawed roster. But they're not stupid, they are wedded to industry best practices, and they have and review all sorts of data much more than I do. They know the team has a very solid Goal Differential. They know about the poor record in 1-goal games. They know Johnson has had a very poor year stopping shots. They know that despite that, the team is on pace to have the lowest Goals Allowed in a full season in its history, and that 2020 was the lowest GA/Gm in club history. They know nobody they signed has stepped up to supplement Castellanos scoring goals, and that Maxi has regressed. They know Atlanta hired a new coach and got better but Dallas did the same and got worse. They also know Atlanta hired 2 duds (not counting interims) in between their 2 coaching hits. They know the team has slipped both in form and in results in the second half. It is a very mixed bag, but not nearly as bad as the record suggests.
I predict that if NYCFC squeaks into the playoffs there is <2% chance Deila loses his job. It is almost given that he remains (unless he resigns).
I think if NYCFC just misses, despite the 2015 Kreis announcement, and despite the second half slide, there is a 10-20% chance Ronny keeps his job. Team ownership and management will probably feel bound by what they said when they fired Kreis, and keeping him would generate a lot of heat, so he most probably goes, but there is, IMO, a much better chance that he remains than most people expect.
I think there's also only a 10-20% chance they replace Johnson, and that's mostly a function of the difficulty of finding someone available and clearly better.
ETA: I'd also really love to know if David Lee, Nick Cushing, or anyone else is telling Deila he needs to bench Maxi.
The draw against Atlanta represented the first point earned in the 2021 Secondary Kit in 6 opportunities.
Sean Johnson
Out of 26 MLS keepers in MLS with at least 1500 minutes so far, Johnson ranks 23rd in Goals Allowed - xG Faced. He ranks 22nd in Goals Allowed / xG Faced. He has not improved in the second half. He missed 5 games for international duty. So I compared his first 12 games to his last 13. His 13th game of the season was a clean sheet over Miami 2-0, so putting in in the second half was a gift to the second half. Here are the figures
First 12 1183 minutes, Goals Allowed - xG 0.88, GA / xG 1.07.
Last 13 1286 minutes, Goals Allowed - xG 2.35, GA / xG 1.19.
The clear howlers have largely gone away, but he has allowed simply too many goals for the number and difficulty of shots he has faced.
NYCFC GF | GA | GD | One Goal Games
The paradox of 2021 NYCFC is that the clear driver of the team's big slump and poor performance is a failure to score goals. But only 3 of the 7 teams ahead of NYCFC in the standings have scored more goals. Nashville has 8 more points yet only 2 more goals than NYCFC. NYCFC has scored more goals than Philly, Orlando, Atlanta and Montreal, plus the Galaxy and Colorado in the West (plus all the mediocre to bad teams in both conferences). NYCFC also ranks 4th in the East by Goals Conceded, and is 3rd in Goal Differential in the East and tied for 5th in Goal Differential for the full league.
So why is NYCFC sitting below the playoff line? As previously discussed it is mostly efficiency and 1-goal games.
Here is a table of the MLS East showing each team's record in 1-goal games (plus draws), sorted by each team's PPG in those games:
It's no surprise to see New England at the top and NYCFC near the bottom. Now let's look at how much each team does in 1 goal games compared to their PPG overall:
Now this is something. The Revolution almost had to slip a bit because their overall record is so high it is hard to exceed it. But if your explanation for why NYCFC has a poor record despite a high goal differential is that our coach or team lacks grit, or does not know how to win close games, I'd like to hear the explanation for the rest of this table. Do Nashville and DC have the worst coaches in the conference? Do Toronto, Miami, Orlando and Chicago have the best coaches, or do their players, despite horrible records, have grit and that certain undefinable know how that allows them to get results in close games and overcome the limitations of poor talent? Because they all do a lot better in close games than overall. Chicago just fired their coach. Was that a mistake? Oscar Pareja has a history of MLS success, so maybe there's something to it, but how come his knack abandons him in the post-season? Nashville and the Union both have decent results in 1-goal games, yet significantly below what they accomplish in all other games. Is that because they are even better and more talented than we realize and are held back by poor coaches who cause them to concede results in close games?
Does this stat only apply to and condemn Ronny Deila and for everyone else it is just a fluke?
Or maybe, just maybe, a team's record in 1-goal soccer games compared to its overall record is largely a function of randomness that reveals little about the coach, or grit, or any special talent in close games.
Conclusion
Here's my prediction. I think our owners and management have put together a flawed roster. But they're not stupid, they are wedded to industry best practices, and they have and review all sorts of data much more than I do. They know the team has a very solid Goal Differential. They know about the poor record in 1-goal games. They know Johnson has had a very poor year stopping shots. They know that despite that, the team is on pace to have the lowest Goals Allowed in a full season in its history, and that 2020 was the lowest GA/Gm in club history. They know nobody they signed has stepped up to supplement Castellanos scoring goals, and that Maxi has regressed. They know Atlanta hired a new coach and got better but Dallas did the same and got worse. They also know Atlanta hired 2 duds (not counting interims) in between their 2 coaching hits. They know the team has slipped both in form and in results in the second half. It is a very mixed bag, but not nearly as bad as the record suggests.
I predict that if NYCFC squeaks into the playoffs there is <2% chance Deila loses his job. It is almost given that he remains (unless he resigns).
I think if NYCFC just misses, despite the 2015 Kreis announcement, and despite the second half slide, there is a 10-20% chance Ronny keeps his job. Team ownership and management will probably feel bound by what they said when they fired Kreis, and keeping him would generate a lot of heat, so he most probably goes, but there is, IMO, a much better chance that he remains than most people expect.
I think there's also only a 10-20% chance they replace Johnson, and that's mostly a function of the difficulty of finding someone available and clearly better.
ETA: I'd also really love to know if David Lee, Nick Cushing, or anyone else is telling Deila he needs to bench Maxi.
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One thing on Johnson -- I see what the xGoals say, but if you look at the non-advanced metrics, his numbers really aren't bad this year. Look at his stats as compared to previous career seasons. 2020 was a career year for him, but this has still been a season above average by his career averages.
www.mlssoccer.com
Sean Johnson | MLSsoccer.com
Official rosters for each MLS club - including player stats, roster status and category
www.mlssoccer.com
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