NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion

[mgarbowski]

One thing on Johnson -- I see what the xGoals say, but if you look at the non-advanced metrics, his numbers really aren't bad this year. Look at his stats as compared to previous career seasons. 2020 was a career year for him, but this has still been a season above average by his career averages.

Sean Johnson | MLSsoccer.com

Official rosters for each MLS club - including player stats, roster status and category

www.mlssoccer.com

I noticed that. But to me, if you try to salvage Johnson's year by ignoring the advanced stats, then you're making our defense look worse by the same amount. Our team defense has conceded fewer xG than any team but Nashville, and we're barely behind them, by less than 1/2 goal over 31 games now. But they have conceded 6 fewer goals, because their keeper is middle of the pack, and ours has been near the bottom.

But I'll make another prediction, which is that Johnson ranks about midrange next year or better. I think this year is a fluke, and part of random variation. I don't think he's a top 5 keeper in MLS, but he's not bottom 5 either.

 

[mgarbowski]

They Come In Bunches
In the last 2 games, NYCFC scored more consecutive goals without conceding (7) than its opponents scored (6) without NYC scoring during the 509 minute drought that included 4 shutouts. NYCFC also scored 7 consecutive goals against Cincy and Philly in Games 2-3, and 10 consecutive goals against Montreal, Orlando and Columbus in Games 13-15, before Columbus got the last minute PK to end that streak.

NYCFC set club records both for consecutive games scoring and consecutive games not scoring this season.

NYCFC leads the league in games scoring 4 or more goals with 4. Eight teams have done it 3 times. NYCFC is tied for 8th by having scored exactly 1 goal 12 times and 15 teams have been shutout more than NYCFC's 6. NYCFC has not scored 3 goals in a game once this season.

On the flip side, NYCFC ranks 6th in clean sheets earned (tied with Seattle) with 10 and 7th with 1-goal concessions (tied with 7 others). NYC is tied for 6th for most shutouts plus 1-goal conceded games (21). Nashville has never conceded more than 2 goals all season. NYCFC has allowed it 3 times (all 3 goals exactly) which ranks 8th (tied with Philly).

NYCFC is now tied for 4th most goals scored all year, and 5th in Goal Differential.

Playoff Prospects
We have not looked at this page in the forums in years:

New York City FC Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

New York City FC playoff odds, and who you should root for today.

www.sportsclubstats.com

It's a fun resource that sadly does not always update MLS regularly, and I think they never update more than once a week. They have not updated with last night's results, but I think the following is still close to accurate. It says that:

If NYCFC ends with 47 points (3 more from here) it has just a 46% or 49.6% chance of making the playoffs depending on whether it wins 1 game or ties 3.​

If NYCFC gets 48 points (4 more) it jumps to 80%.​

At 49 points (5 more) it's 96.3%.​

At 50 (2 more wins) it's 99.5%.​

It says anything above that is 100%. It think it takes into account games where other teams play each other so somebody has to drop points and I suppose that mathematically no more than 7 teams can past 50. Right now my very simple table of maximum points shows 9 teams can reach 50, but that does not account for common games against each other, so it probably is less.

For what it's worth, NYCFC is guaranteed to finish ahead of Chicago, Toronto and Cincinnati. NYCFC can clinch over Columbus and Miami midweek if NYC wins and the both drop points. OTOH, Columbus plays Orlando and Miami plays Atlanta, so we're not exactly rooting for that.

 

[Shwafta]

They Come In Bunches
In the last 2 games, NYCFC scored more consecutive goals without conceding (7) than its opponents scored (6) without NYC scoring during the 509 minute drought that included 4 shutouts. NYCFC also scored 7 consecutive goals against Cincy and Philly in Games 2-3, and 10 consecutive goals against Montreal, Orlando and Columbus in Games 13-15, before Columbus got the last minute PK to end that streak.

NYCFC set club records both for consecutive games scoring and consecutive games not scoring this season.

NYCFC leads the league in games scoring 4 or more goals with 4. Eight teams have done it 3 times. NYCFC is tied for 8th by having scored exactly 1 goal 12 times and 15 teams have been shutout more than NYCFC's 6. NYCFC has not scored 3 goals in a game once this season.

On the flip side, NYCFC ranks 6th in clean sheets earned (tied with Seattle) with 10 and 7th with 1-goal concessions (tied with 7 others). NYC is tied for 6th for most shutouts plus 1-goal conceded games (21). Nashville has never conceded more than 2 goals all season. NYCFC has allowed it 3 times (all 3 goals exactly) which ranks 8th (tied with Philly).

NYCFC is now tied for 4th most goals scored all year, and 5th in Goal Differential.

Playoff Prospects
We have not looked at this page in the forums in years:

New York City FC Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

New York City FC playoff odds, and who you should root for today.

www.sportsclubstats.com

It's a fun resource that sadly does not always update MLS regularly, and I think they never update more than once a week. They have not updated with last night's results, but I think the following is still close to accurate. It says that:

If NYCFC ends with 47 points (3 more from here) it has just a 46% or 49.6% chance of making the playoffs depending on whether it wins 1 game or ties 3.​

If NYCFC gets 48 points (4 more) it jumps to 80%.​

At 49 points (5 more) it's 96.3%.​

At 50 (2 more wins) it's 99.5%.​

It says anything above that is 100%. It think it takes into account games where other teams play each other so somebody has to drop points and I suppose that mathematically no more than 7 teams can past 50. Right now my very simple table of maximum points shows 9 teams can reach 50, but that does not account for common games against each other, so it probably is less.

For what it's worth, NYCFC is guaranteed to finish ahead of Chicago, Toronto and Cincinnati. NYCFC can clinch over Columbus and Miami midweek if NYC wins and the both drop points. OTOH, Columbus plays Orlando and Miami plays Atlanta, so we're not exactly rooting for that.

This just about confirms what I found last week, that 48 points would basically seal playoffs for us, since no 8th seed has ever finished with 48 points. It's likely it could happen this year, but that would be VERY unlikely.

 

[LionNYC]

#RonnyIn: There are scenarios by the end of next week that we can clinch a playoff spot, even a home playoff match...

New York NY City FC Playoff Spot Clinching Options

This Clinching Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the NY City FC winning certain playoff spots.

playoffstatus.com

#RonnyOut: There are scenarios by the end of the week that we will only be able to be the 7th seed...

New York NY City FC Playoff Spot Elimination Options

This Elimination Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the NY City FC losing certain playoff spots.

playoffstatus.com

 

[Seth]

One thing I noticed at the match against DC yesterday is that we were doing a new warmup drill (or at least I've not noticed it before). They used to do a drill where the starters would line up in the center of the pitch near the D, start towards the goal, make a short pass to a coach, get the pass back, and then shoot. They still did this but it was a lot shorter than it used to be, maybe half as much, because before this one they did the new one. They had two players out wide, right near the line, and two players in the middle. One of the wide players would pass into the center while the two center players would run forward and cross paths diagonally, and then whoever received the ball would take the shot, pretty close to the goal. It was interesting because unlike the give-and-go drill they've been doing for years, this seemed like a much more realistic and game-useful sort of play.

Not sure if this was a new thing or not but I've never seem the do it before.

 

[Kjbert]

#RonnyIn: There are scenarios by the end of next week that we can clinch a playoff spot, even a home playoff match...

New York NY City FC Playoff Spot Clinching Options

This Clinching Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the NY City FC winning certain playoff spots.

playoffstatus.com

#RonnyOut: There are scenarios by the end of the week that we will only be able to be the 7th seed...

New York NY City FC Playoff Spot Elimination Options

This Elimination Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the NY City FC losing certain playoff spots.

playoffstatus.com

I mentioned in the chat last night - are we going to pull 12 points out of our ass and he the hottest team in the league for the playoffs

 

[LionNYC]

I mentioned in the chat last night - are we going to pull 12 points out of our ass and he the hottest team in the league for the playoffs

 

[Shwafta]

Goes back to that post Mark made a while back about how our streaks tend to be extremely random. Out of nowhere our run of bad form will end and we will now win all remaining games, for some weird reason. Just watch!

 

[Shwafta]

Five Points | History Makers | New York City FC

New York City FC enjoyed a memorable evening on Saturday with a 6-0 win against D.C. United. Here are Five Points from the biggest win in Club history. Quick Start If Thiago Andrade was looking to etch his name into the NYCFC history books he did just that on Saturday.

www.nycfc.com

In soccer, the importance of small details should never be overlooked.
A tactical tweak can be the degree of difference between success and failure, and for NYCFC it was central to the team scoring six goals on Saturday night. Ronny Deila chose to utilize a back four against D.C. United – a bold decision given United’s preference for a back three – and there was a tinge of surprise to see James Sands lining up at an unfamiliar spot of right back.
As the game progressed, however, it became clear what the thought process was. In possession, NYCFC would switch to a back three system, with Sands moving inside. This would afford left-back Malte Amundsen more freedom to join the attack. Quite whether Deila expected his decision to return results after 36 seconds is unclear, but a central theme of the evening was Amundsen’s rampaging runs down the left.
“I think I did what I’m good at,” Amundsen said afterwards.
The Dane finished the night with two assists and four key passes (source: mlssoccer.com), and it was a small tactical tweak that allowed him to not only maximize his skills, but also expose a weakness of the opponent.

 

[Seth]

One thing I noticed at the match against DC yesterday is that we were doing a new warmup drill (or at least I've not noticed it before). They used to do a drill where the starters would line up in the center of the pitch near the D, start towards the goal, make a short pass to a coach, get the pass back, and then shoot. They still did this but it was a lot shorter than it used to be, maybe half as much, because before this one they did the new one. They had two players out wide, right near the line, and two players in the middle. One of the wide players would pass into the center while the two center players would run forward and cross paths diagonally, and then whoever received the ball would take the shot, pretty close to the goal. It was interesting because unlike the give-and-go drill they've been doing for years, this seemed like a much more realistic and game-useful sort of play.

Not sure if this was a new thing or not but I've never seem the do it before.

Here’s the drill I mentioned. Pass out to a winger who passes back to the (sometimes) diagonally crossing forwards.

LOL I uploaded the video I shot on my phone but got a YouTube copyright warning because of the friggin' DJ Mode music being blasted in the stadium. So if you're wondering why the sound cuts out for most of it, well, now you know!

 

[Shwafta]

So I did some number crunching and, someone let me know if I'm incorrect anywhere here... but here's

Shwafta's Run-in Rundown presented by company_name_here:




The winner of RBvMTL will jump DC on points. Atlanta would jump us if they beat Toronto, and thus control spot #4. However if we win out, we will jump philadelphia thereby giving Atlanta the #3 slot.

It's looking very likely that if we jump Philly, we will either get philly at home, or orlando at home.

If we don't win against Miami, and the other matches go against us, we could be in for a tough decision day.

 

[LionNYC]

So I did some number crunching and, someone let me know if I'm incorrect anywhere here... but here's

Shwafta's Run-in Rundown presented by company_name_here:


View attachment 11504

The winner of RBvMTL will jump DC on points. Atlanta would jump us if they beat Toronto, and thus control spot #4. However if we win out, we will jump philadelphia thereby giving Atlanta the #3 slot.

It's looking very likely that if we jump Philly, we will either get philly at home, or orlando at home.

If we don't win against Miami, and the other matches go against us, we could be in for a tough decision day.

I just look at this with my tinfoil hat and see NYCFC vs. Red Bulls at 3/6 or 4/5 in the playoffs...

 

[CCMore]

I just look at this with my tinfoil hat and see NYCFC vs. Red Bulls at 3/6 or 4/5 in the playoffs...

If that happens, it would be a nail in the coffin of a gut punch of a season against NJRB, or some lovely redemption that wipes the early sins away in my brain.

 

[sabertooth36]

I've posted on here about how Ronny seemed to have no idea what to do with this roster of players, but if the last 2 games are any indication it seems like he's finally figured out a winning formula. Elbow right back Sands letting the LB run up the wing and Santi pushing inside toward his more natural #10 position with Thiago providing the right wing support has been working pretty well.

Necessity is the mother of innovation. I really like the formation because I think it lets us put as many of our best players on the field at the same time. We all know that the 3 CB trio of Sands-Chanot-Callens is one of the best in the league. The issue was getting them all on the field at the same time: Tinnerholm demanded a starting position, so the elbow back was never gonna happen as long as he was healthy. However, his injury meant that we needed to improvise. I like Gray, but putting Sands back there has really opened up a new tactical dimension that we've never shown before.

Ronny really got this right, so far. I hope he'll adjust the tactics to the team we're playing, but this formation should work well vs. Miami and Philly.

 

[Kjbert]

No Heber last night. There’s no shot Ronny was saving him for 60 minutes at the weekend, was he?

because a 3-5-2 at the weekend would be interesting. And allows you to keep the same 11 but drop Morales for Heber

 

[Marito]

Talking about randomness and advanced metrics: according to mlssoccer.com we are still leading the league in xG as a team (followed closely by NER and LAFC, and then everybody else far far behind), and Maxi, whom most on this board see as having regressed badly and many ask for him to be benched, is 3rd in the league in xA per 90 and has almost as many touches per game as Carles Gil. I don't know if there's a metric to account for turnovers per 90 or failed dribbles per 90, which could explain a poor contribution overall, but Maxi doesn't seem too prone to either. On the contrary, if anything he would seem to be too slow, too deliberate and too risk-averse. And as mentioned our xGA numbers are not too shoddy either. I am not going to say we can compare to NER and what they've accomplished this season, but according to these advanced metrics they seem to have managed such stellar season in good part just by scoring on their chances and making the most efficient use of every goal scored in terms of 1 goal victories. Go figure.

 

[sabertooth36]

Talking about randomness and advanced metrics: according to mlssoccer.com we are still leading the league in xG as a team (followed closely by NER and LAFC, and then everybody else far far behind), and Maxi, whom most on this board see as having regressed badly and many ask for him to be benched, is 3rd in the league in xA per 90 and has almost as many touches per game as Carles Gil. I don't know if there's a metric to account for turnovers per 90 or failed dribbles per 90, which could explain a poor contribution overall, but Maxi doesn't seem too prone to either. On the contrary, if anything he would seem to be too slow, too deliberate and too risk-averse. And as mentioned our xGA numbers are not too shoddy either. I am not going to say we can compare to NER and what they've accomplished this season, but according to these advanced metrics they seem to have managed such stellar season in good part just by scoring on their chances and making the most efficient use of every goal scored in terms of 1 goal victories. Go figure.

Yeah, this is why I really don't like overusing advanced analytics for soccer.

Touches per 90 is an almost useless metric. It's probably driven by the fact that Maxi was coming all the way back almost to our own penalty area to get the ball during the 500 minute scoreless streak. The team was playing very poorly and he was moving out of position to get touches on the ball. The eye test shows that, advanced analytics don't.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Talking about randomness and advanced metrics: according to mlssoccer.com we are still leading the league in xG as a team (followed closely by NER and LAFC, and then everybody else far far behind), and Maxi, whom most on this board see as having regressed badly and many ask for him to be benched, is 3rd in the league in xA per 90 and has almost as many touches per game as Carles Gil. I don't know if there's a metric to account for turnovers per 90 or failed dribbles per 90, which could explain a poor contribution overall, but Maxi doesn't seem too prone to either. On the contrary, if anything he would seem to be too slow, too deliberate and too risk-averse. And as mentioned our xGA numbers are not too shoddy either. I am not going to say we can compare to NER and what they've accomplished this season, but according to these advanced metrics they seem to have managed such stellar season in good part just by scoring on their chances and making the most efficient use of every goal scored in terms of 1 goal victories. Go figure.

The results never really caught up with the performances this season, which is a shame because I really think this was one of the better NYCFC teams of all-time. Hopefully we can make a run in the playoffs, because this team is clearly good enough.

We are T-4th in MLS in goals scored, and T-5th in goals conceded. Nashville and Sporting KC are the only other teams in the top 5 in both this season. Our performances have been elite this season, even if the results haven't been.

 

[Nelson Jay]

If that happens, it would be a nail in the coffin of a gut punch of a season against NJRB, or some lovely redemption that wipes the early sins away in my brain.

i will call for the heads of everyone if we lose it. no one is safe not even anton.

After much thinking. only Anton and fan favorite Tony Rocha.

 

[canchon]

So I did some number crunching and, someone let me know if I'm incorrect anywhere here... but here's

Shwafta's Run-in Rundown presented by company_name_here:


View attachment 11504

The winner of RBvMTL will jump DC on points. Atlanta would jump us if they beat Toronto, and thus control spot #4. However if we win out, we will jump philadelphia thereby giving Atlanta the #3 slot.

It's looking very likely that if we jump Philly, we will either get philly at home, or orlando at home.

If we don't win against Miami, and the other matches go against us, we could be in for a tough decision day.

most likely this team isn’t winning in Miami given their road form and Miami’s improvement.
And then NYCFC comes back, wins to get into the playoffs, followed by a trip to Atlanta or Orlando to lose and fully make us tear our hair out.