NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion

[mgarbowski]

If we win our 2 games in hand and beat New England the two times we play them, we'd be tied on 43 points (as of current points). So we do control our own destiny (we'd be tied on wins (first tiebreaker) and then lead on goal differential (second tiebreaker). That being said, I'd like to see the Revs drop some points if we want to be 1st in the East.

This site says we don't control our own destiny.

MLS Eastern Conference Playoff Picture

The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each MLS playoff spot.

playoffstatus.com

Their odds are simplistic and questionable, but every time I thought they were wrong about a team needing help or not it turned out they were right. FWIW I agree with your analysis and pointed it out myself a little while back.

ETA: I think their rationale is not inconsistent with your (and my analysis). I think their point is that New England could score 20 goals in a game and we can't stop that, so even though we enough control to get to the second tiebreaker of GD, we cannot control that. The Revs can always in theory outscore us. On the flip side, if the Revs can win out they do not need to reach the GD tiebreaker.

 

[Shwafta]

If we win our 2 games in hand and beat New England the two times we play them, we'd be tied on 43 points (as of current points). So we do control our own destiny (we'd be tied on wins (first tiebreaker) and then lead on goal differential (second tiebreaker). That being said, I'd like to see the Revs drop some points if we want to be 1st in the East.

That's... not how "controlling our own destiny" works. The same could be said from the NE perspective, if they beat us even once, or even just a tie.

 

[mgarbowski]

That's... not how "controlling our own destiny" works. The same could be said from the NE perspective, if they beat us even once, or even just a tie.

That is exactly how controlling your destiny works. It is possible for 2 competing teams both to control their own destiny.
If we win all our games we end up, at worst, tied with the Revs. Meaning we need no help from other teams and control our placement to that extent.
If the Revs win all their games, we don't win all of ours (and vice versa). And the Revs control their destiny.
Two teams can both control their own destiny as to each other as long as they have as many games (points) at play against each other as the deficit. But only one team can win all the games. We have 6 points at stake against the Revs so we qualify, because we can be six points back if we win the games in hand. If the Revs had a 13 point ead, then no. If we had only 1 game in hand, then no.

Finally, if 2 teams have no common games left, then at most only one of them can control its destiny. The other needs help.

ETA: On opening day, every team controls its destiny. Win every game, and nothing else matters. True of every team ( at least as long as every team in a conference plays every other at least once).

 

[Shwafta]

That is exactly how controlling your destiny works. It is possible for 2 competing teams both to control their own destiny.
If we win all our games we end up, at worst, tied with the Revs. Meaning we need no help from other teams and control our placement to that extent.
If the Revs win all their games, we don't win all of ours (and vice versa). And the Revs control their destiny.
Two teams can both control their own destiny as to each other as long as they have as many games (points) at play against each other as the deficit. But only one team can win all the games. We have 6 points at stake against the Revs so we qualify, because we can be six points back if we win the games in hand. If the Revs had a 13 point ead, then no. If we had only 1 game in hand, then no.

Finally, if 2 teams have no common games left, then at most only one of them can control its destiny. The other needs help.

ETA: On opening day, every team controls its destiny. Win every game, and nothing else matters. True of every team ( at least as long as every team in a conference plays every other at least once).

I was going to write a longer response here, but then I did some thinking about it, and simply put...
Controlling your own destiny would mean, if you win out, you would end up on top. If we win out, we'd end up on top. If they win out, they'd end up on top. Therefore, we can both control our own destiny. Which is just absolutely weird. Thanks

 

[FredMertz]

I was going to write a longer response here, but then I did some thinking about it, and simply put...
Controlling your own destiny would mean, if you win out, you would end up on top. If we win out, we'd end up on top. If they win out, they'd end up on top. Therefore, we can both control our own destiny. Which is just absolutely weird. Thanks

If the teams were tied on the last day of the season on goals, points and wins and played each other, would you hesitate to say that they each controlled their destinies?

 

[moogoo]

If the teams were tied on the last day of the season on goals, points and wins and played each other, would you hesitate to say that they each controlled their destinies?

clearly we would not have control over our destiny because alan kelly would be assigned to our game and PRO-luminati will make sure we didn't win.

 

[Shwafta]

If the teams were tied on the last day of the season on goals, points and wins and played each other, would you hesitate to say that they each controlled their destinies?

Oh, i mean on my reply I clearly backtracked because I thought about it and realized that mark and lion are correct. It just seems weird to me that more than one team can "control" something. I understand the flow of logic, I just think it's weeeird

 

[Gotham Gator]

clearly we would not have control over our destiny because alan kelly would be assigned to our game and PRO-luminati will make sure we didn't win.

I think you mean Alan Chapman.

 

[moogoo]

I think you mean Alan Chapman.

either would be salivating at the chance to ruin our hopes and dreams.

 

[LionNYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1428350493064060932

 

[mgarbowski]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1428350493064060932

I say we finish no lower than 4, behind the top 3 on this list: Revs, Sounders, and SKC But It might not really turn until we get past the next 4 games..

 

[Gotham Gator]

It's looking more and more like the prize for finishing right behind New England will be a resurgent Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I say we finish no lower than 4, behind the top 3 on this list: Revs, Sounders, and SKC But It might not really turn until we get past the next 4 games..

This is another way of saying the analysis in the tweet doesn't take into account remaining strength of schedule.

 

[mgarbowski]

This is another way of saying the analysis in the tweet doesn't take into account remaining strength of schedule.

Among other things.
I would also note that this metric is very subject to being over responsive to the inevitable streaks in any season and really depends on timing. NYC is on a 5 game away winless streak that has dropped its away PPG to 1.00. I don't know when that streak will end, but I'm very confident it will, and NYC will have an Away PPG higher than that at season end. Meanwhile the Revs are undefeated in their last 8, both home and away. I don't know when that streak will end but I'm very confident it will, and the Revs will have both Home and Away PPG lower than now at season end (though it's unlikely we catch them).

 

[Kjbert]

It's looking more and more like the prize for finishing right behind New England will be a resurgent Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs.

No more excuses for this club.

 

[mgarbowski]

It's looking more and more like the prize for finishing right behind New England will be a resurgent Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs.

If their current form holds they can very well finish higher than 7. Right now 1 through 9 are pretty tight.

 

[joe]

7/25 vs Orlando: could not watch
7/30 vs Columbus: could not watch
8/4 vs Chicago: watched entire match
8/7 vs Toronto first half: could not watch
8/7 vs Toronto second half: watched entire half

I can post my Venmo if anyone would like me to not watch Pumas

8/11 vs Pumas: Tried to watch. Between weather delays and ESPN+ being awful, I saw from about 10' until Keaton scored. I think they announced the VAR decision right as I was turning it off
8/14 vs Miami: could not watch
8/18 vs Philly: turned it on around 55' (0-0), turned it off when Philly scored (65'?)
8/21 vs NJ: tried to watch (canceled due to weather)
8/28 vs New England: could not watch

Just really glad this is all happening from my couch and not taking the train 75 minutes each way...

 

[mgarbowski]

Counting the Pumas game, the club has played 519 consecutive minutes with zero goals scored by someone not named Taty. Last one was Shradi in minute 21 against Toronto on August 7. By the time of the next game it will have been more than one month.

 

[mgarbowski]

For some context. Here is a list of the teams currently sitting in the Top 9 in the standings in either conference who have had an easier schedule than NYCFC to date:


This next list includes every team from the same set with a remaining schedule that is tougher than NYCFC to date:


Atlanta missed this list by 0.004, and after NYC plays New England next weekend, NYCFC will have the easiest schedule among teams with even a remote chance of doing any damage in the playoffs this year.

I'm not saying NYCFC should not have done better, or is guaranteed to clean up in the final 13 games, but this ain't nothing, either. Besides the inherent difficulty, a tough schedule wears on you. In effect, the only teams to have had a tougher schedule than NYCFC so far are a handful of teams which are so crap that their schedule seems tougher because they cannot play themselves.

 

[Shwafta]

For some context. Here is a list of the teams currently sitting in the Top 9 in the standings in either conference who have had an easier schedule than NYCFC to date:
View attachment 11412

This next list includes every team from the same set with a remaining schedule that is tougher than NYCFC to date:
View attachment 11413

Atlanta missed this list by 0.004, and after NYC plays New England next weekend, NYCFC will have the easiest schedule among teams with even a remote chance of doing any damage in the playoffs this year.

I'm not saying NYCFC should not have done better, or is guaranteed to clean up in the final 13 games, but this ain't nothing, either. Besides the inherent difficulty, a tough schedule wears on you. In effect, the only teams to have had a tougher schedule than NYCFC so far are a handful of teams which are so crap that their schedule seems tougher because they cannot play themselves.

This is partly why I made the claim last week that the game against Nashville was very important. Had we won that we would have not only been two points ahead of both Orlando and Nashville with a game in hand, but we would have had an even BETTER show because of the strength of schedule. Now we are four behind with a game in hand meaning we're not out of the woods yet. Kinda sucks that the international break had to happen when it did instead of in a few weeks from now. :/