NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion

[canchon]

Anyone thinking we're gonna beat RB three times is kidding themselves. Quote me on this when we beat them three times this season, and I'll be happy to be proven wrong here - but there's no way we beat them three times. Rivalry games always throw a wrench into everything.

RBNJ beat NYCFC all 3 times in 2015 so it’s not unheard of.
I also don’t think it’s probable even though their team is somewhat of a dumpster fire this year.

 

[mgarbowski]

As others have said it’s a 10 game sprint to the finish with a literal logjam between the six playoff spots up for grabs (NE is pretty much locked in at #1). Only six points (as in 2 wins) separate the second from the seventh seed.

The 10 games can be broken down into 3 phases:

1. NJRB (x2), Chicago, Nashville - four games leading up to the int’l break. Nashville at home is pretty much a must win and the other three are against clubs outside of the playoffs. Need to accumulate points.

2. RBNJ, Atlanta - two away games with probably their toughest game remaining (away at Atlanta).

3. DCU, Chicago, Miami, Philly - some tougher competition (DC and Philly) but 3 out of 4 at home including DC and Philly. I’m counting those games at YS where the team plays much better.

50% of their games remaining are against Chicago or RBNJ and except for Atlanta their tougher games (Nashville, DC, Philly) are all at home. The schedule is there to make a run.

I know 2nd seed is the target. What would definitely get them there? 60 pts. They’d have to make a heck of a run - 7 wins, 2 losses, one tie.

They could do that by winning: RBNJ (x3), Nashville, DCU, Philly and one more (Chicago/Miami) and getting one tie on the way.

if they go 4 wins and a tie at home, they would go 3-2 on the road. Win all the home games and it’s 2-2-1 on the road.

still, that’s a heck of a run. Most likely they slightly underperform that and get 54-57 pts which is right in line with prior years. The FO starts polishing its “we’re right there” trophy and NYCFC loses again early in the playoffs.

Well broken down. I think 58 and up gets second. Probably.

Another item I noticed this morning is nobody in the East except the Revs (7 wins Away) has done all that well on the road. Miami has 4 wins, NYC has 3 along with Orlando, Montreal and Cincinnati(!). Everyone else has fewer. If anyone can go on an improved Away run they'll be the team that moves up. Nashville has no other choice with the 3H7A schedule. The West has six teams with 4 or more Away wins. That could mean they are better than most of the East or it could mean that the bad West teams can't even win at home.

 

[mgarbowski]

Anyone thinking we're gonna beat RB three times is kidding themselves. Quote me on this when we beat them three times this season, and I'll be happy to be proven wrong here - but there's no way we beat them three times. Rivalry games always throw a wrench into everything.

RBNJ beat NYCFC all 3 times in 2015 so it’s not unheard of.
I also don’t think it’s probable even though their team is somewhat of a dumpster fire this year.

Even for teams like New England this year, if you pick any 3 games of which 2 are Away and ask if that team will go 3-0-0 in those specific games the odds will usually point to no. Besides team quality, 2015 RB had the advantage of playing 2x in New Jersey.

ETA: To move up, we likely need to go 5-0-0 or 4-0-1 at Home and 2-2-1 or better Away. The seemingly easiest Away games are Chicago and Miami. Winning one of the RB Away games is probably sufficient.

 

[Shwafta]

RBNJ beat NYCFC all 3 times in 2015 so it’s not unheard of.
I also don’t think it’s probable even though their team is somewhat of a dumpster fire this year.

Mark basically said what I was going to say. I don't think it's impossible, hence why I said quote me when I'm wrong about it, but it's very VERY unlikely. Especially with two being on the road.

 

[CCMore]

Mark basically said what I was going to say. I don't think it's impossible, hence why I said quote me when I'm wrong about it, but it's very VERY unlikely. Especially with two being on the road.

But is it really on the road? I think Wednesday might be tough supporters wise because of how few people made it to RBA last Tuesday against Dallas. But against Red Bull I think it may be a more 50/50 split on fans and our team knows the stadium like it’s their own. That’s a huge advantage in MLS which having a home advantage does mean a lot. Will there be the orange smoke stacks or friendly announcements over the PA system? No, but that shouldn’t make a huge difference to professional athletes. I think the main difference is that the supporters section will be open behind the goal.

 

[Shwafta]

But is it really on the road? I think Wednesday might be tough supporters wise because of how few people made it to RBA last Tuesday against Dallas. But against Red Bull I think it may be a more 50/50 split on fans and our team knows the stadium like it’s their own. That’s a huge advantage in MLS which having a home advantage does mean a lot. Will there be the orange smoke stacks or friendly announcements over the PA system? No, but that shouldn’t make a huge difference to professional athletes. I think the main difference is that the supporters section will be open behind the goal.

I mean, there will be a lot more RB fans than NYCFC fans. It sure won't feel like an NYCFC atmosphere. They're not going to open half the stadium to NYCFC and half to RB...

 

[mgarbowski]

I also think it might not make much difference if we finish 2 or 3. A guaranteed home game in Round 2 is the main benefit. That's something but only really applies if both 2 and 3 win in Round 1. I don't think there will be much advantage between playing against #6 or #7 in Round 1. I think Atlanta finishes at 4 or 5 with a shot at 3, but if they make 3 it's probably because we drop (unless Nashville really falters). Six and seven is likely to be 2 of Orlando, Montreal, Philly, DC and Miami. I have some preferences there but not huge and at this point there's no way to foresee who ends up where. I mostly want to stay out of the 4-5 game which should be a tough matchup. Also staying in the 2-3 slots ensure you don't face New England until conference finals.

And now God is laughing because I'm planning NYC's playoff course through multiple rounds.

 

[SoupInNYC]

But is it really on the road? I think Wednesday might be tough supporters wise because of how few people made it to RBA last Tuesday against Dallas. But against Red Bull I think it may be a more 50/50 split on fans and our team knows the stadium like it’s their own. That’s a huge advantage in MLS which having a home advantage does mean a lot. Will there be the orange smoke stacks or friendly announcements over the PA system? No, but that shouldn’t make a huge difference to professional athletes. I think the main difference is that the supporters section will be open behind the goal.

I am incredibly curious as to what the fan turnout is going to be like on Wednesday, a few factors:

1. It's a midweek game and those just generally have lower turnouts
2. Red Bulls suck this year and yeah they just had a nice win, but is that enough of a bump to increase attendance to a game? I'm thinking likely not.
3. The Red Bulls had a Saturday night home game just two weeks ago against DC that was pathetically attended. Now, Red Bull fans (most of them, based solely on what I've seen anecdotally) argue that DC United is their largest rival. If that were the case, then I'd expect this midweek game against a "lesser rival" to have even less attendance.
   1. I'm guessing however that the opposite will occur and they will have more fans show up, and it will point to that argument above that so many Red Bull fans make, really just being a front to "poke fun" at NYCFC fans
4. It's the first Derby that can be attended since 2019, so fans will be itching for it.
5. While NYCFC attendance at RBA has been very poor this year, there is a large group of fans that refuse to go because they won't support home games there. Well, this is an away game and basically would be similar to any other year where NYCFC plays every home game at Yankee Stadium, and in those years, the Derby away at RBA is well attended. It seemed like the earlier scheduled one was going to be in the same boat.
   1. In fact, I almost wonder if having several home games at RBA this year will be a boost to away attendance. There is now a subset of fans that have experience navigating to RBA for many games and are much more familiar with it, that perhaps they may now be more willing to attend an away game there where in the past, that may have been a barrier to attend.

 

[canchon]

Another item I noticed this morning is nobody in the East except the Revs (7 wins Away) has done all that well on the road. Miami has 4 wins, NYC has 3 along with Orlando, Montreal and Cincinnati(!). Everyone else has fewer. If anyone can go on an improved Away run they'll be the team that moves up. Nashville has no other choice with the 3H7A schedule. The West has six teams with 4 or more Away wins. That could mean they are better than most of the East or it could mean that the bad West teams can't even win at home.

It really is a home/away split league. Generally in past years the way to upper 50s/60 points would be to average a point on the road and be lights out at home (2.5+). Averaging 2.5 at home and 1 on the road over a full season averages out to 59.5 points.

NYCFC has 12 points in 12 road games this year.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I am incredibly curious as to what the fan turnout is going to be like on Wednesday, a few factors:

1. It's a midweek game and those just generally have lower turnouts
2. Red Bulls suck this year and yeah they just had a nice win, but is that enough of a bump to increase attendance to a game? I'm thinking likely not.
3. The Red Bulls had a Saturday night home game just two weeks ago against DC that was pathetically attended. Now, Red Bull fans (most of them, based solely on what I've seen anecdotally) argue that DC United is their largest rival. If that were the case, then I'd expect this midweek game against a "lesser rival" to have even less attendance.
   1. I'm guessing however that the opposite will occur and they will have more fans show up, and it will point to that argument above that so many Red Bull fans make, really just being a front to "poke fun" at NYCFC fans
4. It's the first Derby that can be attended since 2019, so fans will be itching for it.
5. While NYCFC attendance at RBA has been very poor this year, there is a large group of fans that refuse to go because they won't support home games there. Well, this is an away game and basically would be similar to any other year where NYCFC plays every home game at Yankee Stadium, and in those years, the Derby away at RBA is well attended. It seemed like the earlier scheduled one was going to be in the same boat.
   1. In fact, I almost wonder if having several home games at RBA this year will be a boost to away attendance. There is now a subset of fans that have experience navigating to RBA for many games and are much more familiar with it, that perhaps they may now be more willing to attend an away game there where in the past, that may have been a barrier to attend.

However, this game was originally scheduled for a Saturday night, and those ticketholders still have their tickets, even if they can't attend. My guess is that the listed attendance will be high, but that there will be lots of no-shows.

 

[SoupInNYC]

However, this game was originally scheduled for a Saturday night, and those ticketholders still have their tickets, even if they can't attend. My guess is that the listed attendance will be high, but that there will be lots of no-shows.

Right, and I don't really care much about the listed attendance since that is usually not all that accurate, and will likely be less accurate for the exact reason you just noted.

Just curious as to what it's going to look/sound like in the stadium on Wednesday

 

[Kjbert]

The road to home playoff games goes through 3 derby games vs NJRB. Tough games home vs. Nashville and away @ Atlanta, hitting a great run of form. I'm nervous, but super excited! If this team performs the way it's capable of, and no one gets injured or suspended, we have the offensive depth to get it done.

RedBulls SUCK this year. 7 points or GTFOH. No excuses

 

[Gotham Gator]

RedBulls SUCK this year. 7 points or GTFOH. No excuses

3 games - 2 on the road in a place that's a wet, swampy mess - against an aggressive, sometimes dirty opponent - with highly questionable officiating.

James Sands is fully ready after a rotation with the USMNT in Concacaf.

 

[Kenny]

Red Bull NJ is not a great team for sure but they have ways to get results. We are better but highly inconsistent especially away from YS. These are derbies. I’ll be happy with 5 points. 6 or 7 would be amazing.

 

[LionNYC]

Red Bull NJ is not a great team for sure but they have ways to get results. We are better but highly inconsistent especially away from YS. These are derbies. I’ll be happy with 5 points. 6 or 7 would be amazing.

9 points! This is the year of our sweep and to overtake the overall MLS series (currently RB 8, NYC 6, Draw 2; RB has 2 USOC wins)

 

[Gotham Gator]

NJR 8
NYC 6
Draw 2

 

[SoupInNYC]

9 points! This is the year of our sweep and to overtake the overall MLS series (currently RB 8, NYC 2, Draw 2; RB has 2 USOC wins)

Huh?

Without counting USOC, NYCFC is 6-8-2

 

[413Blue]

NJR 8
NYC 6
Draw 2

Huh?

Without counting USOC, NYCFC is 6-8-2

I'd assume it's a typo, since the first part wouldn't make any sense.

 

[LionNYC]

NJR 8
NYC 6
Draw 2

Huh?

Without counting USOC, NYCFC is 6-8-2

I'd assume it's a typo, since the first part wouldn't make any sense.

Yeah, typo. 2 + 3 wins would not over take 8. 6 + 3 would.

 

[LionNYC]

How does MLSSoccer count 11 Red Bull wins?